Another 200/400 bellagio hand vs terri

[nfscreech]

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All these bets and raise form a dialogue and her 4th bet certainly shouts out 33 or 55 more than J5 or J3 (which BTW are hands with which she may have raised you on the flop with and she didn't here which further indiactes a set).


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I don't think she would raise two pair here. The pot is small, and she has no reason to want to drive the fish and and get it HU with BK.

[skp]

No, you misunderstood. Although it could be my writing that is the culprit. I am talking about J5 and J3 which would give Terri two pairs on the turn. But I am saying that with just a 5 or a 3, she might have raised <u>on the flop</u> instead of calling and letting the third guy stay.

Reading the two streets in conjunction, I am saying that it is more likely that Terri's turn raise and 4 bet represents a set as opposed to J5 or J3. Of course, it could represent other hands too but as between a set and two pairs, a set is more likely.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Just to clarify, do you think that it is more likely for her to take this line when she has a set than when she has two pair? Or do you also mean that, even taking into account the fact that there are a lot more combinations of two pair than sets, you still think it is more likely that she has a set?

[Surfbullet]

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Just to clarify, do you think that it is more likely for her to take this line when she has a set than when she has two pair? Or do you also mean that, even taking into account the fact that there are a lot more combinations of two pair than sets, you still think it is more likely that she has a set?

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I believe it is that skp believes terri would raise most 1pair hands to protect them on the flop, so the only 2pair holdings she could have were made on the flop, not helped by the J. Additionally, bottom 2 may not be as eager to put non-stop bets in on the turn. We are left with T5, T3, and 53 as 2pair possibilities, and 55 and 33 as set possibilities. Also, 53 and to a lesser extent T3 may not be so eager to keep raising knowing that a higher 2pair is possible from bk, while a set will continue to hammer away.

Surf

edit: also the 2pair hands that hold a T become less statistically likely b/c 2 tens are accounted for already.

[skp]

Surfbullet basically clarified what I was trying to say.

I can't seem to express my thoughts clearly today both on the forum and in the crap that I have been dictating at the office all day.

[nfscreech]

Thanks for clarifying.

[jck8]

against her id 5-bet this for sure.

[Lestat]

I think you should 5 bet it, although it's tempting to just call and donk the river to see if she wants to pop you like she did in the KJ hand. That would be sweet, because she'd have to at least call your re-raise thinking your both playing off that hand.

Hey, if you lose to set, oh well... Sometimes it doesn't go your way.

[mike l.]

this is an easy 5 bet on the turn and call down from there. you just give up too much by not 5 betting here.

[golferbrent]

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full table 200/400. I'm up and nothing significant has happened. She's read the thread where I 3 bet her on the turn with that KJ and we've discussed the hand a couple times.

Fish limps in the CO. He's the loose passive semi-older rich businessman in for a 'fun time'.

I complete JTd in the sb, terri in the bb checks.

Flop T53 with a diamond. I bet, terri calls, fish folds.

Turn J non diamond. I bet, terri raises, I insta 3 bet, she quickly 4 bets...I?

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Based on the results of the K-J hand and the fact that she knows what you had... and knows that you know from your conversations: I five bet and call down from there is in order. Unless of course you improve on river and then it is all out war.

I think she could easily be overplaying a worse 2 pair here based off your overaggressive action that you gave in the K-J hand.