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#1
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Re: 50/100 AK vs possible straight and flush
I can't see anything other than a 3 bet on this turn and am surprised there is actually debate about this. Unless he's a donk or a maniac he won't cap this turn without JT or a set.
If you raised preflop and 3 bet on a AQ2 flop and bet again on a K turn it takes a hell of a player (or a donk) to cap it when you 3 bet with less than JT or a set. IF he caps the turn, in theory it would be shouldn't be that difficult a fold (I'd still probably call though even if all signs point not too, I'm not quite that player yet 90% of the time). if your betting indicates AK and he knows it and still caps the turn knowing you won't fold AK or AQ (this being limit and assured of a calldown). I seriously think you can 3 bet this and if he caps it fold if you don't fill up. |
#2
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Re: 50/100 AK vs possible straight and flush
Is TJ really a common cold calling hand in the CO from an UTG raise in a 10-handed game? Especially from someone who "seems tight?" AA, KK, QQ, and 22 are all unlikely as you didn't get 3-bet PF and 22 rarely calls 2 cold. I say this turn is a 3-bet and c/c the river if capped and you don't improve.
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#3
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Re: 50/100 AK vs possible straight and flush
[ QUOTE ]
Is TJ really a common cold calling hand in the CO from an UTG raise in a 10-handed game? Especially from someone who "seems tight?" AA, KK, QQ, and 22 are all unlikely as you didn't get 3-bet PF and 22 rarely calls 2 cold. I say this turn is a 3-bet and c/c the river if capped and you don't improve. [/ QUOTE ] Do you really think good players ever are the first cold caller of an utg raise? Once someone cold calls there, I can't put him on a hand because I would never cold call in that spot. |
#4
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Re: 50/100 AK vs possible straight and flush
whats with no river bet?
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#5
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Re: 50/100 AK vs possible straight and flush
Paluka - That seems like a pretty damn good reason to coldcall to me.
I agree with whoever said you should play cautiously because AK is a hand people tend to start from when you raise PF, so if they're popping you on an AKxx board they aren't doing it lightly. |
#6
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Re: 50/100 AK vs possible straight and flush
[ QUOTE ]
Paluka - That seems like a pretty damn good reason to coldcall to me. I agree with whoever said you should play cautiously because AK is a hand people tend to start from when you raise PF, so if they're popping you on an AKxx board they aren't doing it lightly. [/ QUOTE ] You think cold calling is a good idea just because they can't put you on a hand? |
#7
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Re: 50/100 AK vs possible straight and flush
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Is TJ really a common cold calling hand in the CO from an UTG raise in a 10-handed game? Especially from someone who "seems tight?" AA, KK, QQ, and 22 are all unlikely as you didn't get 3-bet PF and 22 rarely calls 2 cold. I say this turn is a 3-bet and c/c the river if capped and you don't improve. [/ QUOTE ] Do you really think good players ever are the first cold caller of an utg raise? Once someone cold calls there, I can't put him on a hand because I would never cold call in that spot. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, if I knew the villain better I could read his hand better and make a better decision here. Also I could fold the river UI if I knew him better. But since he's basically unknown I want to go to showdown. Let's say calling down is the base case. If I 3 bet and I'm ahead and he calls down, I win 1 more bet than if I just call down. If I'm behind and he caps, I then call down and lose 2 more bets (he will never cap when behind, and rarely he'll fold when he's behind, which leaves me only as well off as calling down to start with). I now think the EV of the 3-betting vs calling down is pretty close. If you think he's much more likely to have KQ/AQ than JT or 22 then of course you favor the 3 bet, and vice-versa. I should donk the diamond river though, since I get protection from a raise and I don't want it to get checked through. Everyone's comments have been excellent, this hand is much more interesting than I first thought. When I played it I thought it was a clear call down, when I posted I thought it was a clear 3 bet, and now I think its pretty close. I asked another good player I know and he thinks its still a clear 3 bet. |
#8
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Re: 50/100 AK vs possible straight and flush
Maybe you don't but tons of week players call cold with KQ,AQ and those are the hands I would expect him to have on the flop and then confirmed on the turn!
And who said he was good "seems tight" I recall. |
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