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  #21  
Old 07-28-2005, 02:24 AM
Reef Reef is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Spokompton
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Default Re: did i misplay this AA too?

don't post results so early.

ridiculously small bets are often draws, I've come to find. I'd consider raising the flop because of this reasoning. Maybe he has a set and will 3-bet. There's no way I get away from this hand though.
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  #22  
Old 07-28-2005, 03:48 AM
Proofrock Proofrock is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 101
Default Re: hand range for villian

[ QUOTE ]
given this opponent, i'd play it the same way again if i'm ever in a similar situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me see if I get this right: in the future, against these two opponents, one who is frustrated by your aggressiveness, when you flop top set on an A56r board, when one of the two opponents bets 1/15 of the pot, you will flat call in the hopes of trapping them into making a mistake on the turn? It seems that you're making a huge mistake by letting them draw cheaply to a hand that could beat you, unless you know your opponents to bluff with a weak hand when they sense weakness.

Think about the hands you might be up against and the possible outcomes:

-Villain flops set, you double up whether you bet now or not.

-Villain flops straight draw, you give him odds to draw, he mucks when you bet big, and doubles through you ~80% of the time that he hits. You win $0 ~90% of the time, double up 2% of the time, get stacked 8% of the time.

-Villain has p.p. but makes a set on the turn. You win ~0 about 96% of the time, you double up about 4% of the time.

-Villain has second pair. ~20% of the time makes two pair/trips and you will win a medium pot, ~80% of the time you will win 0.

-Villain has nothing, you win 0.

-multiply by two villains * likelihood of each occurence.

The straight draws make what should be a very +EV situation into a -EV play. Not only are straight draws more likely to hit than than "set draws", they're also more likely to occur (based entirely on combinatorics, not on player reads). Besides, Villain is getting tired of you raising all the time -- doesn't that mean you want to keep leaning on him?

Counter arguments?

-cj
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  #23  
Old 07-28-2005, 11:17 AM
Go_Blue88 Go_Blue88 is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 361
Default Re: did i misplay this AA too?

[ QUOTE ]
Seems like you are already fairly sure you played it correctly, so not sure what you are asking about...

Anyway, I think you played it fine. Lots of ways you can play flop here depending on how the game has been going. Sometimes you lose, no big deal.

As far as folding on the turn, you'd have to be fairly sure that he would only push with a straight and not with 2 pair or a set since you are 3.6 to 1 to river him even when he has the straight. That is one hell of a read if you can be that sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

haha i posted it right after a different AA hand that i may have actually misplayed. i just posted it b/c i figured most people wouldn't have a problem with the line i took.

as for the other comment, i was just kidding b/c everyone's advice to me is to fold in pretty much every hand i play. there's no way i'd ever fold this turn.
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  #24  
Old 07-28-2005, 11:18 AM
Go_Blue88 Go_Blue88 is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 361
Default Re: hand range for villian

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
given this opponent, i'd play it the same way again if i'm ever in a similar situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me see if I get this right: in the future, against these two opponents, one who is frustrated by your aggressiveness, when you flop top set on an A56r board, when one of the two opponents bets 1/15 of the pot, you will flat call in the hopes of trapping them into making a mistake on the turn? It seems that you're making a huge mistake by letting them draw cheaply to a hand that could beat you, unless you know your opponents to bluff with a weak hand when they sense weakness.

Think about the hands you might be up against and the possible outcomes:

-Villain flops set, you double up whether you bet now or not.

-Villain flops straight draw, you give him odds to draw, he mucks when you bet big, and doubles through you ~80% of the time that he hits. You win $0 ~90% of the time, double up 2% of the time, get stacked 8% of the time.

-Villain has p.p. but makes a set on the turn. You win ~0 about 96% of the time, you double up about 4% of the time.

-Villain has second pair. ~20% of the time makes two pair/trips and you will win a medium pot, ~80% of the time you will win 0.

-Villain has nothing, you win 0.

-multiply by two villains * likelihood of each occurence.

The straight draws make what should be a very +EV situation into a -EV play. Not only are straight draws more likely to hit than than "set draws", they're also more likely to occur (based entirely on combinatorics, not on player reads). Besides, Villain is getting tired of you raising all the time -- doesn't that mean you want to keep leaning on him?

Counter arguments?

-cj

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't want to continue this debate as it seems pretty fruitless. however, i'd be happy to message you my counter arguments. so, message me if you want to hear them man.
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  #25  
Old 07-28-2005, 11:21 AM
guaranteedBluff guaranteedBluff is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 95
Default Re: did i misplay this AA too?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
there's no way i'd ever fold this turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
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  #26  
Old 07-28-2005, 11:24 AM
amoeba amoeba is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 691
Default Re: did i misplay this AA too?

if you are capable of playing this way with 99-kk, then flop call is fine but I suspect you raise the flop with these hands.
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