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#21
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don't post results so early.
ridiculously small bets are often draws, I've come to find. I'd consider raising the flop because of this reasoning. Maybe he has a set and will 3-bet. There's no way I get away from this hand though. |
#22
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given this opponent, i'd play it the same way again if i'm ever in a similar situation. [/ QUOTE ] Let me see if I get this right: in the future, against these two opponents, one who is frustrated by your aggressiveness, when you flop top set on an A56r board, when one of the two opponents bets 1/15 of the pot, you will flat call in the hopes of trapping them into making a mistake on the turn? It seems that you're making a huge mistake by letting them draw cheaply to a hand that could beat you, unless you know your opponents to bluff with a weak hand when they sense weakness. Think about the hands you might be up against and the possible outcomes: -Villain flops set, you double up whether you bet now or not. -Villain flops straight draw, you give him odds to draw, he mucks when you bet big, and doubles through you ~80% of the time that he hits. You win $0 ~90% of the time, double up 2% of the time, get stacked 8% of the time. -Villain has p.p. but makes a set on the turn. You win ~0 about 96% of the time, you double up about 4% of the time. -Villain has second pair. ~20% of the time makes two pair/trips and you will win a medium pot, ~80% of the time you will win 0. -Villain has nothing, you win 0. -multiply by two villains * likelihood of each occurence. The straight draws make what should be a very +EV situation into a -EV play. Not only are straight draws more likely to hit than than "set draws", they're also more likely to occur (based entirely on combinatorics, not on player reads). Besides, Villain is getting tired of you raising all the time -- doesn't that mean you want to keep leaning on him? Counter arguments? -cj |
#23
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Seems like you are already fairly sure you played it correctly, so not sure what you are asking about... Anyway, I think you played it fine. Lots of ways you can play flop here depending on how the game has been going. Sometimes you lose, no big deal. As far as folding on the turn, you'd have to be fairly sure that he would only push with a straight and not with 2 pair or a set since you are 3.6 to 1 to river him even when he has the straight. That is one hell of a read if you can be that sure. [/ QUOTE ] haha i posted it right after a different AA hand that i may have actually misplayed. i just posted it b/c i figured most people wouldn't have a problem with the line i took. as for the other comment, i was just kidding b/c everyone's advice to me is to fold in pretty much every hand i play. there's no way i'd ever fold this turn. |
#24
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[ QUOTE ] given this opponent, i'd play it the same way again if i'm ever in a similar situation. [/ QUOTE ] Let me see if I get this right: in the future, against these two opponents, one who is frustrated by your aggressiveness, when you flop top set on an A56r board, when one of the two opponents bets 1/15 of the pot, you will flat call in the hopes of trapping them into making a mistake on the turn? It seems that you're making a huge mistake by letting them draw cheaply to a hand that could beat you, unless you know your opponents to bluff with a weak hand when they sense weakness. Think about the hands you might be up against and the possible outcomes: -Villain flops set, you double up whether you bet now or not. -Villain flops straight draw, you give him odds to draw, he mucks when you bet big, and doubles through you ~80% of the time that he hits. You win $0 ~90% of the time, double up 2% of the time, get stacked 8% of the time. -Villain has p.p. but makes a set on the turn. You win ~0 about 96% of the time, you double up about 4% of the time. -Villain has second pair. ~20% of the time makes two pair/trips and you will win a medium pot, ~80% of the time you will win 0. -Villain has nothing, you win 0. -multiply by two villains * likelihood of each occurence. The straight draws make what should be a very +EV situation into a -EV play. Not only are straight draws more likely to hit than than "set draws", they're also more likely to occur (based entirely on combinatorics, not on player reads). Besides, Villain is getting tired of you raising all the time -- doesn't that mean you want to keep leaning on him? Counter arguments? -cj [/ QUOTE ] i don't want to continue this debate as it seems pretty fruitless. however, i'd be happy to message you my counter arguments. so, message me if you want to hear them man. |
#25
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[ QUOTE ] there's no way i'd ever fold this turn. [/ QUOTE ] |
#26
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if you are capable of playing this way with 99-kk, then flop call is fine but I suspect you raise the flop with these hands.
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