AQ in HUGE pot - any way to win this pot?

[jjacky]

i don't think the raise on the flop is correct.

obviously you can't raise for value here. let's see if a raise really helps hero's pot equity:

i am pretty sure, the only hands he can shut out are weak one pair hands with a weak kicker, gutshot straights, backdoor flushes and weak overcards. it is almost impossible to win this pot without a showdown.

he might be up agains a straight or a set. in this case the bet is just wasted.
a 2 pair is pretty likely too. if he is up against a two-pair, it won't help to get gutshots out, because it is impossible that the gutshot hits and hero end's up with 2 pair or better.
it's very likely that he is up against a pair and a straight draw. in this case he can't get hand's out that hurt him.

i don't see any likely possibility how a raise on the flop could help hero's pot equity enough to justify that play.

i would however raise it preflop.

[jjacky]

straight, set and two-pair are not unlikely. if you aren't up against a hand that strong, the ace may very well be tainted anyway. if you make your hand you are open for several redraws. you have reversed implied odds and you risk a raise behind you on the flop.
i think it is a close decision on the flop. i tend to fold here. a raise is probably the worst alternative.

[jjacky]

raise preflop. you probably have the best hand and you might be able to thin the field a little bit.

don't raise the flop (reasoning in an earlier reply of mine).

turn and river appears to be ok.

MP3 played a little bit strange, whatever he had.

a set or 6,5 would make the most sense to me.

[jjacky]

forgot to mention 6,4s. the PF call would have been a little loose, but the rest would make perfect sense.

[dacubbie]

Say you're the button with 77. It gets 3bet by the BB. Everyone else calls. Do you cap it?

[dacubbie]

First off, would you have raised 77 on the button to begin with?

[Akimka]

MP3 has set of fives indeed.

[pleyya]

Id say a call on the flop is a worse alternative than a raise since you allow hands that reverse your odds to see the turn. And you have odds enough to call so id raise. If one small bet may inrease your chance of winning a really big pot i do it. I wouldnt assume two pair or str8 or trips based on 1 op bet on fl. I would however be concerned if one more low card hit the board.

[mute]

I like it all the way. You have to protect your hand if it is good. It sure looks bad when he 3bets the turn, but the pot is still too big to fold.

[jjacky]

i don't assume two pair straight or trips based on one bet. but the flop is connected and the pot is very multiway. that dramatically increases the risk to be up against a good hand.
i would raise too, if one small bet would increase my chances to win the pot considerably. but it is almost sure, that it is not the case here. you have neither a hand nor outs that you can protect effectively.

here my reasoning against against the raise from a previous answer:


i don't think the raise on the flop is correct.

obviously you can't raise for value here. let's see if a raise really helps hero's pot equity:

i am pretty sure, the only hands he can shut out are weak one pair hands with a weak kicker, gutshot straights, backdoor flushes and weak overcards. it is almost impossible to win this pot without a showdown.

he might be up agains a straight or a set. in this case the bet is just wasted.
a 2 pair is pretty likely too. if he is up against a two-pair, it won't help to get gutshots out, because it is impossible that the gutshot hits and hero end's up with 2 pair or better.
it's very likely that he is up against a pair and a straight draw. in this case he can't get hand's out that hurt him.

i don't see any likely possibility how a raise on the flop could help hero's pot equity enough to justify that play.

i would however raise it preflop.