#21
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Preflop Calculation
Hey I was talking to Our House and I did a little preflop calculation and figured I'd post it here to get your thoughts. The key variables here are the 25% I thought it gets capped and the adjustment of 7.5:1 to 10:1 to make up the times you hit, lose, and get owned (this part is the key so I want your opinions on the adjutment).
25% of the time hero is getting 13.5:3 and 75% he is getting 10.5:2 which averages to 11.25:2.25. If we say he needs 10:1 or 22.5:2.25 (instead of 7.5:1) to make up for when he hits a set and lose he needs to make up the difference between 11.25 and 22.25 which is 11 sb or 5.5 BB. |
#22
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Re: Preflop Calculation
so you are saying when you hit a set you need to average netting 5.5bb after the flop?
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#23
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Re: Odd line... how much did I screw up and how badly?
OK Metetron, you wanted to generate some discussion about the hand other than the river?
Our House: metetron's post..... Victor: my statement was a a joke Our House: nono Our House: i mean preflop Our House: i turbo muck Victor: i call it Our House: why do so many call it Our House: UTG isn't known, there's a cold caller and a TAG 3 bets Victor: 5.5:1 Our House: barely Our House: it's a sh!tty 5.5:1 Victor: if capped its about 4.3:1 Our House: right, but there are different 5.5:1s Our House: 5 limpers and you're SB is a lot different of a 5.5:1 Our House: and it also matters how many players have PPs Our House: with a raiser, cc'er and a 3-bettor, it's much more likely that there are more PPs in there Our House: seriously cuts down your chances Victor: set over set is fairly uncommon Our House: you're right when there's only 1 PP Our House: 2 makes it worse Our House: 3 is bad Our House: 4 is terrible for you Our House: plus, they don't fold pairs, so you can get setted on the turn and river also Our House: everyone is spoiled from hitting sets and winning big pots Our House: they forget the losses Victor: pairs and sets are fun Our House: but not +EV Our House: just fun Victor: im not sure Victor: i think its profitable Victor: not a gold mine Victor: but just playing for set value should work Metetron, I think the preflop call is slightly -EV just to hit a set. If you're going to play the hand the way you did, preflop is even more than slightly -EV. |
#24
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Re: Preflop Calculation
right, if the two variables I included are correct. The adjustment of 7.5:1 to 10:1 was somewhat arbitrary. I think preflop is close but fine. I think flop is 10 times worse.
EDIT: The adjustment I came up with to 10:1 already takes into account reverse implied odds. So, if my logic is correct, you need to make 5.5BB the times you hit and your hand holds up. |
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