25/50 Deep Stack Tricky Hand

[theBruiser500]

[ QUOTE ]
Diablo, what do you do here, CR allin?

Or bet the turn and fold to a raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

or bet and call a raise, he might call flop and raise turn thinking i simply can't call with AA

[theBruiser500]

[ QUOTE ]
out of your range of reraising hands, what hands can you have that call the turn? I think you make it too easy for him here if you fold your big pairs like this every single time. in a less aggressive game I think the fold is standard.

--turnipmonster

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree, everyone i agree that my line is bad here...

[theBruiser500]

if i'm going to not bet the turn, and check it and play on from there, how about check/call? i kind of like that line more instinctively without giving it much thought. he will not call my c/r with a worse hand. against what hands do i need to c/r the turn not smooth call and then play the river?

[tiger_style]

will he bluff the river if you call the turn?

will you commit yourself to calling the river if you check call the turn?

[VanVeen]

You check because:

1. Betting increases the % of the time you're holding a hand that is willing to call a raise, thereby reducing his bluffing frequency. If you check, much of your hand range (in your opponent's mind) is a hand willing to concede the pot and your opponent (deerchaser17!) will frequently fire and give you money w/anything he's holding. Unless you've made a habit of betting turns in spots like this with hands you're willing to fold or your opponent has shown a willingness to make tremendously expensive all-in bluffs in similar situations, checking extracts way more value from bluffs. Almost always gives you ~$4000-4500 vs. very rarely gives you $11500. Not close.

2. Betting again allows your opponent to stop shovelling money into the pot with a worse made hand that he would have mistakenly bet for the sake of 'hand protection' (or 'value') in a biggish pot. You get -way more- value from worse 'made' hands by checking, especially with your style of play.

Why you raise:

1. How often is your opponent going to fire twice in a spot like this? How much additional value can you extract from his hand range by letting him see a river? Probably not very much. You make the river too easy for your opponent to play by checking-calling. You will almost assuredly LOSE money on river action.

2. Since you can't extract much extra value, hand protection takes priority: this is a big pot that'll be very difficult (and mistakes will be very costly) to play on the river and you'd like to win it now.. so win it now. He isn't calling with a worse made hand, but you are very rarely getting more value out of them anyway.

I hate check-calling unless deerchaser will fire twice 'often'. I really doubt he does it enough. And when reading above, keep in mind that I'm assuming you have his hand range crushed after he bets the turn. I think you're ahead v.v.often.

[VanVeen]

"this is a big pot that'll be very difficult (and mistakes will be very costly) "

I'd just like to make this more clear. I think check-raising all-in on the turn is massively +EV given how your hand fares against your opponent's likely range. But even though you have his hand range in bad shape, I think check-folding the turn may be superior to check-calling because of how massively -EV any river action is going to be. You're going to have trouble extracting any value at all from worse made hands unless you hit a Q the few times he has a monster, and you're going to make many, many mistakes - folding incorrectly or paying off incorrectly depending on the card - and they're all going to cost you a lot of money. Your opponent just has a very big edge on the river. Maybe I'm being a little extreme w/C-F>C-C given how often you're probably ahead, but C-Cing is definitely worse than C-Ring.

Check-calling this turn is out of the question.

[ML4L]

Hey Bruiser,

[ QUOTE ]
if i'm going to not bet the turn, and check it and play on from there, how about check/call? i kind of like that line more instinctively without giving it much thought. he will not call my c/r with a worse hand. against what hands do i need to c/r the turn not smooth call and then play the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that what you did is far better than check-calling. I can't think of a spot where I would ever call off 1/3 of my stack:

- out of position
- with a vulnerable hand (or, a hand that doesn't really know what river cards it wants to see)
- against an aggressive opponent
- against an opponent with an unknown holding

Generally, any one of those conditions is enough to keep me from flat-calling, much less all of them... Your only options are to raise or fold. Don't worry about the raise being too large; it's not even pot-sized. Leading small will get you into even tougher spots.

Even if you are rarely called by a worse hand and/or fold a better hand (which would usually be a reason not to raise), the raise is mandatory, because putting in 1/3 of your stack commits you to showdown. So, you had might as well be the one putting the money in there rather than calling it off. Letting him see another card might cost you the pot. If you don't think that you are good often enough here to risk your remaining stack to win money already in the pot, then you just let it go.

And, of course, as everyone has pointed out, the problem with the hand comes before the turn. If for bankroll/variance reasons, you don't want to play a big pot with top pair, control the size of the pot on the early streets.

ML4L

[theBruiser500]

vanveen, btw i don't think i reraised anyone preflop in the last cople or orbits, maybe i did but i really don't think against deerchaser

[VanVeen]

You did within the last 30 minutes or so. Not sure how many orbits prior. You also reraised him a little while after this hand occurred, checked a ragged/rainbow flop, called a pot-sized turn bet, then folded to a pot-sized river bet. Weird hand.

[cero_z]

Hi Bruiser,

[ QUOTE ]
Why is a boat out of the quesiotn here? He could have a boat or a flush, or other hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was assuming it was very unlikely because if he's been running you over and you've been running away, he probably wouldn't bet so much with a hand you were almost certainly near-dead to. But at the time, I didn't know this:

[ QUOTE ]
You just typed in the chat to 'hulk17' that you thought he was bluffing in a sizeable pot but "didn't have the heart to call down".


[/ QUOTE ]

This seems key to me; if he's a good player and he believes you were telling the truth in that chat, then he should be looking to play a good hand strongly against you, since presumably you'll be looking to find the heart next time. I don't think this kind of chat will help you at all, btw; it's a little too subtle, and will probably cause him to tighten up his bluffing frequency just a tad (very bad), while becoming more alert in hands against you (bad).

I watched this player for a while last night after reading your post, and I really can't believe that folding could've been right. If he has a flush, you have at least 4 outs, and maybe 11. If he has trips, you have 11. If he has a boat, you have 2 or 4. Add this to the probability that you are currently ahead (at least 66% in my mind), and you have a clear all-in IMO.