#21
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Re: HUGE flop
I'm surprised at the number of people saying check. To me, there is nothing more suspicious than a PF reraise and then a check on the flop. If I'm villain here I check behind 100% of the time.
I say make a standard CB of about 2/3 the pot and hope he calls you with AK or a PP. |
#22
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Re: HUGE flop
Lets build a pot...lead.
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#23
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Re: HUGE flop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Can’t believe ppl advise betting here. This flop missed him by a mile & he’s probably drawing to runner runner. No need to try to be clever, just check it & hope he makes a move. If he's prepared to bluff re-raise you all-in then you'll get there just as easily by checking. [/ QUOTE ] don't listen to this guy. checking won't get your money in. bet the 35$, if villain wants to bluff raise you he'll do it. the money isn't going to get in by itself. [/ QUOTE ] Look, he has been stealing Ice's BB every single round. He knows full well Ice will re-raise him. he doesn't need a big hand to call here. Hands range is probably: 60% Big unpaired cards - betting will just get him to fold, checking may get him to bluff or he may hit one of his cards on the turn - checking is better 15% Small pairs - he called to hit his set & will again likely fold to ice's c-bet but may bet if checked to - checking is better 15% Overpairs - he thinks he's gold, all the money is going in whether you check or bet - doesn't matter 10% Complete trash - he folds when you bet, may bet if you check or hit something on the turn - checking is better This is $1/2NL. He is most likely a moron. He is most likely to do something stupid if you check. He will most likely fold if you bet. |
#24
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Re: HUGE flop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Can’t believe ppl advise betting here. This flop missed him by a mile & he’s probably drawing to runner runner. No need to try to be clever, just check it & hope he makes a move. If he's prepared to bluff re-raise you all-in then you'll get there just as easily by checking. [/ QUOTE ] don't listen to this guy. checking won't get your money in. bet the 35$, if villain wants to bluff raise you he'll do it. the money isn't going to get in by itself. [/ QUOTE ] Look, he has been stealing Ice's BB every single round. He knows full well Ice will re-raise him. he doesn't need a big hand to call here. Hands range is probably: 60% Big unpaired cards - betting will just get him to fold, checking may get him to bluff or he may hit one of his cards on the turn - checking is better 15% Small pairs - he called to hit his set & will again likely fold to ice's c-bet but may bet if checked to - checking is better 15% Overpairs - he thinks he's gold, all the money is going in whether you check or bet - doesn't matter 10% Complete trash - he folds when you bet, may bet if you check or hit something on the turn - checking is better This is $1/2NL. He is most likely a moron. He is most likely to do something stupid if you check. He will most likely fold if you bet. [/ QUOTE ] that's y betting the 35$ will accomplish 2 things: 1. if he has unders/overs he'll still call 2. he could think ice is just trying to re-push him around, so to test ice he'll raise back. i totally expect ice to do this with A2o or KQ so why would this be any different now then it would if he just had ace high?? |
#25
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Re: HUGE flop
A lot is based on the read. The guy is a thief, he likes to bluff, I'm going to let him bluff and maybe he'll even catch up on the way.
This came up the other night, I had AQ and threw a standard PFR. Flopped AAQ against a big-time bluffing thief who had no respect for pre-flop raisers. I checked, he checked. He paired his J on the turn and made a bet. I called. Then he decided to bluff all his chips off on the river, insta-call. |
#26
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Re: HUGE flop
This would be my exact line as well. Hopefully a "scare card" falls on the turn. A pause, a check and a smooth call will set you up to stack him on the river.
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#27
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Re: HUGE flop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Can’t believe ppl advise betting here. This flop missed him by a mile & he’s probably drawing to runner runner. No need to try to be clever, just check it & hope he makes a move. If he's prepared to bluff re-raise you all-in then you'll get there just as easily by checking. [/ QUOTE ] don't listen to this guy. checking won't get your money in. bet the 35$, if villain wants to bluff raise you he'll do it. the money isn't going to get in by itself. [/ QUOTE ] Look, he has been stealing Ice's BB every single round. He knows full well Ice will re-raise him. he doesn't need a big hand to call here. Hands range is probably: 60% Big unpaired cards - betting will just get him to fold, checking may get him to bluff or he may hit one of his cards on the turn - checking is better 15% Small pairs - he called to hit his set & will again likely fold to ice's c-bet but may bet if checked to - checking is better 15% Overpairs - he thinks he's gold, all the money is going in whether you check or bet - doesn't matter 10% Complete trash - he folds when you bet, may bet if you check or hit something on the turn - checking is better This is $1/2NL. He is most likely a moron. He is most likely to do something stupid if you check. He will most likely fold if you bet. [/ QUOTE ] that's y betting the 35$ will accomplish 2 things: 1. if he has unders/overs he'll still call 2. he could think ice is just trying to re-push him around, so to test ice he'll raise back. i totally expect ice to do this with A2o or KQ so why would this be any different now then it would if he just had ace high?? [/ QUOTE ] You're not playing the hand, villain is. Villain is unlikely to be a 2+2er & has probably never heard of a C-bet. He is most likely a typical $1/2 donk who called to try & hit a flop & missed. He will probably stack off here if he hits a pair so give him the chance. No need to overthink this at this level, checking gets the most over his likely hand range. |
#28
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Re: HUGE flop
[ QUOTE ]
No need to overthink this at this level, checking gets the most over his likely hand range. [/ QUOTE ] No it doesn't. Not even close. Key is betting an amount that looks like you are scared of this flop, since you have big cards. Checking is very suspicious, and usually only lets you "re-steal" if he takes a stab at it. |
#29
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Re: HUGE flop
lead half pot.
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#30
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Re: HUGE flop
[ QUOTE ]
I couldn't disagree with Leptyne's assessment more. a) 9s full of 8s is the nuts on the flop, hate to break it to you. b) Villain is a clearly a suspected blind thief, which makes sense because hero what letting him do it while waiting for the right hand. So no, his call doesnt necessarily mean that villain has anything. c) Pretty much not a single card in the deck "kill the action" as we will be counting on the thief to make a bluff here. Someone that is in the habit of pickin up pots with pf bluffs is probably also used to using scare cards against people that call them. I think a high card or a three flush if it is present will only help induce the bluff. Could be wrong of course, but I think you are off the mark. [/ QUOTE ] a) Exactly, "nuts on the flop". If villain has any pair AA-TT then the flopped boat may loose at showdown. b) When villain calls a re-raise with 10% of his stack he probably does not have a trash hand like J9o or 72o. To me this 10% is one of the keys. Villain is on a steal and Hero can raise with any two, but it takes a better hand to call this raise than it does to make the raise. Villain is a thief, but that doesn't make him a donk. c) Villain can bluff the flop, or semi-bluff, or snap-off a bluff by Hero. If all the money doesn't get in on the flop what does an A or K on the turn do to villains snap-off? Because of the Gap Theory Hero is more likely to have JTs or 76s so Q or 5,J,7 may cause villain to re-think his bluff, semi-bluff, or snap-off. Of course the best-case scenario would be for villain to have 88. Second best would be for him to have a draw and hit it on the turn. The question is how do you extract the most money from villain. |
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