i was vilified for this call (Super Thurs - 11 left)

[LokiV]

[ QUOTE ]
This part of your post is certainly correct, but you might want to check back tomorrow when I post my explanation regarding the rest of what you said.


[/ QUOTE ]

I guarantee whatever it is I won't agree. You had no edge. None.

[Che]

I had planned to post my explanation this afternoon, but I'm a little behind schedule because of a little incident involving Dursban weed and ant killer and my 2-year old's face. So, I won't be able to make my full reply until after the kids go to bed tonight. Sorry!

In the meantime, Diablo is not the only one to bring this up so let me address this:

[ QUOTE ]
Given the info presented, I would lean towards folding here.

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Others have specifically said that without a read on the SB, they would fold.

Well, I intentionally omitted my read on the SB since that would leave all of you in the same position as the railbirds who jumped on me.

Here's the read:

SB was to my immediate left for quite a while earlier in the tourney (120 left down to 30, I think). I vaguely remembered him as solid when I first saw him although I couldn't remember if I knew him from tourney play or the $100NL tables. While I don't have a photographic memory or anything, I do normally pay attention to the player to my immediate left and I noticed that his play was indeed very solid overall, including a clear understanding of the gap concept, bubble issues, and whatnot. Also, I would rate him as more aggressive than average.

Since you only get 30 seconds to make a decision in an online tourney, some things have to be decided in advance. The main thing I focus on when the blinds get big is whose all-in am I willing to call given their position/stack size/etc. As a result, I had already come to the conclusion that the SB would push with any 2 if it was folded to him in this situation.

So, now you have more information. I'm wondering if those of you who would fold against an unknown player would now call or if you would still fold IF you had the same read.

Later,
Che

[davidross]

I would fold simply because he's desperate and will still be desperate next time around, when hopefully I'll be more than a toss up against a random hand.

I don't think the call is bad, it's very close.

[FellKnight]

Still no.

With J6 off, you are exactly a 50% favourite heads-up against a random hand. This includes trash like 5-2o.

You are in the money in the MTT, but the percentage payouts only increase exponentially from here. The BB is 1/4 of your stack, but even surviving for one more player to lose will increase your payout. You will likely be at the final table when that happens, and the blinds won't hit as often, giving you a slightly better chance at pushing with a better hand.

I would never make this call at this stage of the tourney.

But it sounds like you did, and he lost with T9s or something. Congrats on your performance.

Fell

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]

With J6 off, you are exactly a 50% favourite heads-up against a random hand. This includes trash like 5-2o.

[/ QUOTE ]

If Che believes his opponent moves in with ANY hand, the call is routine.

[Che]

Playing 5-handed with 11 of 776 left, you have 33281 chips after posting the 4000 BB. Folded to the SB who pushes in. 11056 for you to call. You have A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and because (take your pick: he accidentally turned over his cards when pushing/you’ve been granted three wishes and you use one now/whatever) you *know* the SB has black eights. Avg. chip count is between 70 and 71K.

Do you call? Is that your final answer?

Before we discuss that, let’s clarify what the issue is here. I was berated and vilified for calling with the same chip counts as above with J6o. I was told it was a “terrible” call. I am merely arguing that it was *not* terrible. I am not arguing that it is an easy, no-brainer call that everyone should make all day long. I posted the hand because I thought it would be thought-provoking, and I hope it has been.

Back to the AK v 88 hand: If you said you would call with AK then you agree that my call with J6o was correct, right? If not, at least one of two things is true:

1. You are not accepting (or just unaware of) my read that SB will push any two. (The read was intentionally omitted from the original post. I added it later in the “one more thing” post.)
2. You don’t know the numbers.

Point 1 has already been partially explained in the “one more thing” post, but another piece of evidence is that the SB is in last place and has very little motivation to try to fold his way to a higher spot. How do I know? Difference in payouts for moving up from 10th to 9th or 9th to 8th – almost $600. Get lucky and make it above 8th - $1100 a spot until fourth. Fold from eleventh to tenth - $64. No typo there - $64.

As I said, no motivation to be anything but aggressive. He should push any two while he still has some folding equity.

Point 2, consider:

A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] v. 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 0.444 (from twodimes.net)

J6o v two random cards: .478 (available several places on the web, confirmed by our own eastbay)

So, if you call with AK, you must call with J6o (given my read). If not, let’s look further…

What is the CEV of the call?

The call is 11056/30112 or .37 so EV of .478 is clearly positive.

Specifically, the CEV is .478 * 52337 + .522 * 22225 = 36618.54

36618/33281= 1.10 so we have a 10% edge on the call. (33281 is our EV for folding.)

Given that we have less than 10xBB at a very aggressive table, a play with 10% edge that leaves us with a playable stack even if we lose is pretty hard to pass up, I think, especially if you agree with fnurt (as I do) that:

[ QUOTE ]
If the 5-handed situation had been profitable then I could see letting this one go. But with such a big stack at the table, I'm guessing it's something you want to get out of ASAP.

[/ QUOTE ]

But will the SB *really* push any two?

Let’s assume he won’t quite push any 2 so the CEV is less – 3%, 5%, wherever you draw the line – so the call is indeed borderline. What then?

[ QUOTE ]
If you win, you have 52. If you lose, you have 22. If you fold, you have 33. Something like that. Weighing what I think my chances are of making various money from those positions is how I would make the decision to call or fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whether you have 22 or 33, you still most likely end up in 8th through 11th (although you will get hot every once in a while and still hit it big). Eleventh pays 1105, eighth pays 2328. Big deal.

When you hit 52 (at least 40% of the time unless the SB is VERY tight or simply unaware of the prize structure implications), you have a good shot at the top 5 (25.6K/15K/10K/7K/5.8K). I’ll gladly move into the competition for those prizes 40% of the time even if it means an occasional tenth or even eleventh.

[ QUOTE ]
But since you have much deeper pockets from previous wins, I think you can forgoe a couple spots occasionally to give yourself a better shot at the top spots.

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My pockets aren’t tremendously deep, but I am willing to take the risk mentioned because I think it increases long-term $EV.

How much edge do you really have?

Let’s say a given player has a 5% edge over the field. If he is shortstacked and must move in or fold every hand, how big is his edge? 5%.

What if he increases his stack above 10BB so that he can make two decisions per hand (at least on hands where he opens the action)? His edge is compounded and is now 10% (1.05 * 1.05).

So, if folding leaves me a 5% edge on each hand and calling/losing leaves me with a 5% edge on each hand while calling/winning gives me a 10% edge on each hand PLUS the ability to play a hand without risking all my chips, I like calling even if the EV is very close to zero.

This argument opens me up to another blast from DS that I don’t understand simple facts, but that’s fine. If anyone would like to criticize my arguments beyond surface level, I would love to hear it. I just came up with this so it is very likely to be flawed in at least one place. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Other stuff

[ QUOTE ]
But if they are morons NO WAY do I make this play without even getting 2:1. Make it 2.5:1 and I call everytime.

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Oops. More unclear communication on my part. The railbirds were the morons, not the other players (unfortunately). The only non-moron who complained was the guy I made the call against, and I can understand that since it sucks to get knocked out one short of the final table by J6o even if it is a good call (and some obviously don’t think it is).

[ QUOTE ]
I'll guess he had some piece of cheese like 98s and you won, since you're taking crap for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Amazing, gergery, you must be psychic or something! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Yes, the opponent had 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and my bad call won unimproved. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

While the fact that I would have lost 52.2% of the time is more important than the fact (and way) that I happened to win, I was very pleasantly amused by all the grief I took for calling with the best hand. LOL.

I hope I have demonstrated that this is far from being an insta-fold as some have suggested. Even if you still think folding is better, I hope you can see that calling is not *terrible.* In fact, if the blinds were increased just one level (to 3000/6000), I think all of you who might still be “leaning” toward folding would quickly move to my side of the fence and call, but you’ll have to do the math yourself if you want to be convinced. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

BTW I do not mean to represent myself as some kind of expert or know-it-all. If I have been condescending or offensive to anyone in this thread (LokiV, perhaps?), I sincerely apologize.

Later,
Che

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This part of your post is certainly correct, but you might want to check back tomorrow when I post my explanation regarding the rest of what you said.


[/ QUOTE ]

I guarantee whatever it is I won't agree. You had no edge. None.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your edge is that the pot is laying you 2-1. I'm not contending this was a trivial call, but it's important that you understand the factors that go into making the right decision, whether or not we all agree on the ultimate result.

[LokiV]

I understand and agree with you a lot more after your reasoning. Minus any reads it was tough, I probably would have folded under the posit that he will do this again next round (though taking the chance that he will be knocked out before then).

I misspoke when I said 'even money', I meant you had no implied odds and were getting 100% of your investment in profit. So 2:1.

I still would not have made the call but if someone had asked my opinion I would've just said it was a risk. Which is why final tables are made up of men of action (aka winning players).

Thanks for the reasoning, I think it's been helpful to me.


Maybe it's worth repeating now a piece of advice I once heard from negreanu and took to heart: The more advanced my opponents the more risks I must be willing to take to defeat him. ---

[Toro]

Great read, nice reasoning and it all worked ou perfectly for you. But I'm interested in how you would have felt if when he turned his cards over he had say QQ.

I'm probably too results orientated but when I do something similar to what you did in a tourney but am wrong I tend to berate myself. Are you able to separate your feelings from your intellect when you're wrong on plays like that?

[betgo]

I don't see why all the discussion. You are getting almost 2-1 pot odds. You are a 2-1 dog versus two overcards and a 6-1 dog against an overpair. It is very unlikely your opponent has an overpair. It is more likely you are about a 3-2 dog or even. On average there is no way you are a 2-1 dog. The SB presumably knows the pot odds too, and would push with any better than average hand.