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#2
06-20-2005, 03:06 PM
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Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
[ QUOTE ]
Nice. Change the flop to T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and talk to me again. [/ QUOTE ] K is now worth ~ 2 outs w/o straight potential but you lost your BDSD(which was a 2 gapper anyway) so i think what you gained in the less tainted king you gave up in the BDSD(which being a two gapper i only alotted .5 outs to anyway). 
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#3
06-20-2005, 04:09 PM
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Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] makes this a much more interesting hand because your opponents now have gutshots instead of OESD's.
I think that taking the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] out of the picture increases the value of your King outs (from 0 to 2 say), but I think that it also increases the chances that MP1 is betting a TP hand (rather than a draw) which makes me start to wonder about your Ace outs. Then there's those pesky callers. With what kind of preflop-limp hand does a thinking player call a a 10-high, 2-suited flop bet with a preflop raiser yet to act? A made hand (TP) would almost certainly raise, so they're probably still drawing but collectively, they're drawing to almost half of the deck. Their possible hands include: overcards + gutshot, flush, gutshot + flush draw, OESD, Straight Flush draw, overcards + flush - did I miss any? So you've got position, but you're probably behind and your opponents have a lot of outs (i.e. any card between a 7 and a King/Ace). With the exception of the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], I'm having a hard time thinking of a turn card that you'll be happy to see. Raising the flop will (possibly) push out the gutshot draws, but not the flush draws. TP is either calling or reraising (depending upon his kicker) so he's staying put and a mix draw (overcards + gutshot) is probably calling too. So I think that a raise is still wrong. If you call and hit an Ace, King or [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], there's good chance that the turn will be bet and raised before it even gets to you so even when you hit a happy card, you'll be faced with an unhappy result. The pot's big, and has the potential to get huge, but you're begging for a second best hand here. You're going to have to fold this on the turn or the river the majority of the time anyway, fold now. (but it's a much closer decision than with the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]). Change the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] to the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and I'm (probably) raising the flop.
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#5
06-20-2005, 03:32 PM
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Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
[ QUOTE ]
While you probably still have 3 Ace outs your King outs are probably worthless. So what is a backdoor nut flush worth to you? Given your description of the other players, even with the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], I would fold here. Raising the flop accomplishes nothing. MP1 bet here knowing that you were the preflop raiser so he either doesn't care if you raise (e.g. he's got a big draw and he's building the pot) or he wants you to (e.g. he's got top pair and wants to reraise to thin the field). Calling the flop doesn't help much either: MP1 got two callers, so it seems to me that you aren't the only guy with a heart or two in your hand, so you probably have fewer flush outs than you think. If a heart comes on the turn, it may prove quite expensive to chase your draw to the river. Overall, your outs are either tainted or fewer than yout think. Fold here. [/ QUOTE ] In the words of DJ Shadow, Break it down now. Why are his king outs useless? This is a classic HEPFAP situation in which my opponents are more likely to have my ace outs reverse-dominated rather than my kings. A pair of kings will win here often. And what is a backdoor flush draw worth to me? 1.5 outs. You have no reason yet to believe anyone has hearts; the range of hands that an Unknown might donkbet this flop with is too wide. Next. Both your situations are very likely. However, given the PF action, I would venture to say this table is fairly passive. There is a good chance raising will give us a free card. And if he and everyone else is drawing, then we have the best hand right? Next. Calling in this spot is an equally viable option. No one is folding to our raise in this huge pot. We can assume this given the read of "semi-decent players." They know how to calculate pot odds. And flop overcalls mean nothing. People always find reasons to call. I have a lot of weak draws combined on this flop, and the pot is huge. You know what that means? Equity edge. Next. If a heart comes on the turn, it's not how much I pay to draw that counts; it's the odds the pot lays me. If I hit my draw, I win here almost always. Folding is, by far, the worst option of the 3. EDIT: I may have given K outs too much credit, since they complete the 9TQJ straight. However, if you spike a K, the action will easily dictate whether or not your K is good.
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#6
06-20-2005, 04:22 PM
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Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
1. What hands are his (thinking!) opponents holding that they will limp with preflop and call a flop bet on this board? Clearly, they all have a piece of this.
2. We don't have to assume that anyone has a heart (or hearts), but you certainly have to consider it don't you? 3. Why are you assuming that the table is passive? All we were told is that they were thinking players. There are many holdings that an agressive player(s) could have here where calling would be correct and normal. - Particularly if they are assuming that our (agressive) hero will be raising. 4. Do we have the best hand right now? What happens if the turn brings anything from an 8 to an ace? Is our hand still the best? 5. If you call the flop, what are the chances that you'll have to fold the turn anyway?
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#7
06-20-2005, 05:31 PM
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Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
1. Overcards, top pairs, mid pairs, flush draws, combos; There is not enough information once action is on hero on the flop.
2. Yes, it's definitely a possibility. In fact, I think it's one of the greater possibilities given that someone bet out into the field. 3. I assumed this was a small stakes hand. Up to 3/6, when this many people limp preflop, I think it's a fair assumption that the table is pretty loose and passive. Or maybe we're just all holding great multiway hands. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] 4. UI I'm sure chances are we are not best on the turn given any action at all. What if it's checked to Hero? 5. Not high - Hero has a good amount of redraws, as well as his top pair outs. EDIT: I think we see things differently because of the read.
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#8
06-20-2005, 02:45 PM
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Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
Raising is intuitively correct with a decent chance at a free card. This is a big pot and you have strong overs and some backdoor potential. If you insist on calculating outs, your aces are worth 2, kings are 1.5+ (Kh is a good card for you), and backdoor draws are at least 1.5. You don't have to worry so much about being trapped by turned/rivered draws because you have excellent position. Use it.
I only like calling if you're convinced that overcard outs are dead or too difficult to play for against this field. In any case, folding is silly.
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#9
06-20-2005, 03:12 PM
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Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
I think it's a pretty easy call. This pot is just way too big to fold.
As far as call vs. raise...by "semi-decent" I'm thinking MP1 is betting into a large field vs. check/raising considering his relative position to you means a vast majority of the time he's got: 1) A draw or pair+draw that with 3 callers and no raise he's likely to just bet again on the turn. 2) A big hand that you're getting 3-bet with. 3) A really big hand that he may call the flop raise with but lead the turn to keep opponents trapped. I doubt it's anything like Tx that you would want to raise. But then maybe I'm giving too much credit to "semi decent". Also, while the free card is appealing (and I agree if the chances of getting it are decent then a raise is OK) so is paying just 1 SB to see the turn card and turn action to you. Did I mention folding is bad? Chief
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#10
06-20-2005, 03:17 PM
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Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
I can't see how anyone would even consider folding. IMO folding is not an option. I like a call, but I do wonder if a raise would clean up any top pair outs that we might have. IF it can get a couple of early position folds, then a riase could very well help us a lot in this hand
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