QJo EMP in a Tightish Game

[jaxUp]

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3.I like the turn raise if you can fold to a 3-bet. Getting him to fold AK is very nice for you here. However, with the gutshot + 2 pair/trips draw, you can't fold to the 3-bet because now you've bloated the pot. Call turn and call river.

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So in a smaller pot or with less outs (maybe sans gutshot) I can raise/fold to a 3-bet here?

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in a smaller pot, against a weaker villain, without the gutshot I like a raise/fold. As it stands, he'll be laying you 10:1 on a 3-bet here, so you'd be correct to call with just the Q and J outs.

[jaxUp]

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This is a pretty good time to take a WA/WB line.

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I am retarded. This is not WA/WB. I still want to just call down, but I just want to clarify that it is wrong of me to call it WA/WB. We are never WA here. He will almost always have at least 6 outs, and we also have a shitton of outs.

Let me rephrase my thoughts on why we should call the turn. If we want, we can raise the turn with what may or may not be the best hand, and pay up to 4BB to call down with TPGK, or we can call the turn, and then call river UI, paying 2BB to show down. This also gives us the chance to raise the river when our straight/2pair/trips comes in.

Preflop: It seems to me like this is a little bit too early to be open raising w/ this hand. I think it's OK to do at this table, but I'd probably want to be a seat or two closer to the button personally.

Flop: Agreed the odds merit a call

Turn: I think the turn raise is ok given this guy's AF. He could easily be coming after you w/ A8, A6, etc. He's raised 9 of the 90 hands you've seen him play, so my guess is that he's raising any Ace or King preflop. You could have him beat here, so I think a raise is ok.

River: I think a crying call is merited here w/ top pair heads up.

[jaxUp]

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, so my guess is that he's raising any Ace or King preflop

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I agree he would raise those preflop, but his 3-betting range is much narrower.

Also, this turn raise is not good. People seem to be saying that it's okay because we might have him beat here, which is true. However, he will almost never fold this, and we can't fold to a 3-bet. I think that the times we get 3-bet (or called down) when we're behind push this turn raise into -EV land.

[bozlax]

Preflop: I like the play at this table, as long as you don't feel like anybody's picking up on it (tables this tight at 2/4 usually make me think there's at least one or two good players seated).

Flop: two overcards, backdoor straight and flush draws, HU with Mr. Laggro, g00t peel.

Turn: ok, you've got top pair, now, but that card puts another flush draw on the board, and potentially completes a straight. Just call down, your FE is nonexistent, and being 3-bet by this player shouldn't be enough to let you fold.

River: you'll see AK/AT/etc here often enough to look him up.

Can someone explain why calling the flop is better than raising? Is it because there's only one player in the hand, or the pot is too small, or just that our hand doesn't have enough value?

[Xhad]

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Can someone explain why calling the flop is better than raising? Is it because there's only one player in the hand, or the pot is too small, or just that our hand doesn't have enough value?

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Because Villain is folding basically never, we may have only backdoor outs and getting 3bet sucks.

About raise/fold preflop: You're always getting at least 5-to-1, usually 6-to-1, on calling a reraise so you kind of have to call no matter how tight your opponent is, especially in position. I would fold even after raising in this situation if the BB capped regardless of his stats.

[BatsShadow]

grunch:

To me, the turn 3-bet says you are behind.

But more importantly: don't limp, don't raise, fold PF.

[McGahee]

Fold PF - too early to open limp or raise this especially if you're not all that comfortable with your postflop game. I'd raise it from MP3.
Flop is good. I'd just call down from the turn. There's no way you can fold to a 3-bet given your outs coupled with the fact that villian is a nut.

[adsman]

The turn is the most interesting part of the hand. I think you have to ask yourself, 'why am I raising here?' If you raise you're doing it to knock him out or for value when he's behind. But if he reraises you that's a clear message that you're toast and you can safely fold. Raising costs you two bets when you're behind if you fold. When you're ahead and he calls you down you win one bet more than if you'd just clicked the call button. But if you make this play and call down when he reraises you, then you've paid off 4BB on a losing hand instead of two.
I think you only want to make this raise if in the situations that you're behind you have no outs. You have outs here, namely the 9 for the one card gutshot. I don't think you can call a Q an out since it will make AK very happy indeed.

And to all those people who blithly posted "fold preflop", did you read the original post? The OP clearly discribed why the table conditions were ripe for this sort of play. This is called switching gears and it's what the really good players do. Merely saying fold it because that's what a chart says without taking into consideration other factors isn't going to take you very far.