Interesting No Limit Question

[CrisBrown]

Hi Clone,

[ QUOTE ]
I know our best outcome here is a split pot, but if you push the flush draw out, then at least you will GET the split pot and not end up giving the draw a chance to hit the flush and push you out completely.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're certain the lead bettor doesn't have JdXd, then yes, this is correct. But there's a 1-in-9 chance he does, so you don't guarantee yourself that split pot. The best you can hope for is a 92.5% shot at a chop ... and that other 7.5% is buh-bye....

Cris

[West]

You not only have to worry that the guy behind you has the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] as part of the flush draw you put him on, but you have to consider the strong possibility that the player who opened the betting on the turn, who you put on a straight, may very well have the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]...if he does, he can move in on you, knowing that you cannot be freerolling on him....and that you don't know whether he is freerolling on you (with a made straight and a flush draw.)

I don't know if the fact that David says you are almost sure that the $200 bettor on the turn has a straight was intended to preclude him from having a flush draw or not.

[Steve Chase]

Bet All In

[kmvenne]

A for me. Here is the real point. They are GOOD players. So the flush draw is playing good diamonds. Even if he's not freerolling with the third straight, he probably has two pair and a house draw. Who needs half this stupid pot when so many cards can hurt you?

[Steve Chase]

why not move all in. The more you bet, the worse pot odd you will give to the drawer. Play poker is maximizing EV. The more you bet the higher EV you will get.
Of course while you maxizing your EV you increase your variance.

[KC50]

I'm with you Wayfare on not folding the hand and on the probabilities the other J(d) having another diamond also. However, it has to be a concern only if the other J is a diamond aloing with another diamond.

Also the fact that it is early in the tourney would be a factor to possibly support Squirrels just laying down the hand in the first place.

KC

[daryn]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In risposta di:</font><hr />
</font><blockquote><font class="small">In risposta di:</font><hr />
can we at least all agree raising the turn is flat out stupid?

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't Daryn. I chose c (min. raise) and seem to be the only one that held back on my explanation.

There is a possibility of getting freerolled but you can't allow that to supersede the need to make the flush draw pay. Someone would have to have EXACTLY Jdxd in order for that to occur and even then they don't have a great freeroll against you.

So, I believe a min. raise is ideal given that the 1st player likely has the straight draw because:

- The flush draw (set, straight, 2 pair) will be much more likely to call than if you raise to a larger amount

- The original bettor will almost certainly re-raise and reopen the betting at which time you can call or raise again depending on the amount to take control of the hand.

To me it's pretty simple, you can use the protection of the hand behind you to put extra pressure on the flush draw and extract the maximum amount of money before cutting off his odds.

[/ QUOTE ]



but what do you say about a guy with the bare Jd? that's my question..


say you raise, reopen the betting, now the flush draw calls. if the original bettor has the naked Jd, he can just go all in, and you can't call!

[kmvenne]

1-9? A random diamond holding would lead me to believe 2-11 for the Jd to be a part. However the true odds of the Jd being in the hands of a GOOD player is very dependent on if the Ad is on board or not. If so, we can eliminate all Axd holdings, and the range of our opponents hands will likely be suited connecters from, on average, 5d 6d up, and all remianing suited 20's. Assuming the ten brought the second diamond, the most likely hands become suited connecters between 9-5 (4 hands), KJ, JQ, and KQ. Here the odds are 2-7 that we are getting freerolled (maybe 3-8 if he is far back enough to play J9) and 1-7 that he has a house draw to go along with the flush draw.

That leaves the breakdown as follows. 4-7 that he has 9 outs, 1-7 he has 13, and 2-7 we have to dodge 9 cards. Not a very appeasing situation to get our money in. In fact, if we give the flush draw the house cards to bluff at, he becomes a fearsome opponent, with 17 cards 4-7ths of the time, 15 2-7ths, and freerolling to 16 cards. I don't want to play this man.

[KC50]

[ QUOTE ]
I consider this fairly elementary but two good players got it wrong when I asked them, so let's see what you guys say. Just answer without explanation for the time being.


Wow, A lot of discussion when we were just supposed to answer the question without explanation.

Heck, I didn't even do that. I just chimed right in with you all.

So, with respect to the poster I will go with B. flat call as my best course of action and will wait for David before adding any further thoughts.

KC

[gergery]

Fold.

Unless they both fold, the very best you can do is chop, which means you risk 200 to win 450. And your equity only goes down from there, as
1) flushdraw will be getting odds to call if you call, which reduces your equity another -50 or so,
2) flushdraw could have twopair with his draw, reducing your equity again
3) flushdraw could have the Jd, in which case he would raise, and you would be making mistake to call. So you lose your 200 chips 100% of the time, never getting to find out if the river would make the flush.

Points 2&amp;3 need to occur ~35% of the time in aggregate to turn your EV negative, and that seems reasonable since good players are typically playing higher valued cards.

Of course, this whole thread could be a trick question, since I don’t understand why a supposedly good player would be minraising with the nuts here when a flushdraw is on the board.

--Greg