Strangely Played Hand in 10K at Harrahs

[Howard Treesong]

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. . . you didn't has anything about the $800 bet into that board. What do you think he shoulkd bet or not bet on the flop with those Aces?

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Villain saw me put in a 6x BB preflop bet UTG and instantly call a raise that gives me a 2:1 price (200 to get 440). Villain and I haven't logged many hours, so a reasonable range for him to put me on is AA-JJ, AK or AKs. I don't think he believes I'll make that bet with small suited connectors (e.g. hands like J9 or teeny flush draws).

Villain knows he has me outchipped, but that I have 3400 more behind the 320 that I've already put in the pot. If I've bricked the flop entirely, I'm mucking to any reasonable bet; his task is to price me out of hands on which I'll call.

There are 5 ways for me to have an AK with a single spade and 3 ways each for KK-JJ with one spade, and 1 way for the dreaded freerolling AA. If I've got an overpair to the board and one spade, I'm on an eleven-outer (9 ways); if I have just the dry spade, it's nine outs (5 ways). Assuming we get to the river, he's a 56/44 or so favorite to the 11-out hands and a 64/36 favorite to the nine-out hands. With 670 already in the pot, an 800 bet gives me .41 weighted equity into a 2270 pot, or 930+, and he should therefore expect me to call.

For him to set an even-money price on this hand range, he has to bet somewhere north of 1500: .41(2x+670)=x, solving yields x=1522. That's a substantial overbet to the pot, and it pot-commits him to a raise in those situations where he's been cold-decked.

If I were Villain, I'd bet somewhat less than the pot to buy the hands that missed, but understand that I'm pricing in the spade draws. I'd plan to muck to a big raise, call a raise that's about the size of mine, and re-evaluate on the turn with the key question being whether a spade hits.

I think either the 500 bet you propose or the Villain's actual 800 bet price in my most likely hand range. As I indicated earlier, I think the 500 is more likely to induce a bluff-raise than the 800 is, but I'm not sure how much.

[Howard Treesong]

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Have to quibble with your description of him as a "solid, careful player"...with your raise back at him out of position on that flop, he is compelled to lay down the off suit aces unless he's a dope, and is almost as required to rip them in half and show them to you, saying "why did you re-raise so much with a made flush?" [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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That's a post-hoc analysis, now isn't it? My perspective when this hand came down is that I hadn't seen this guy make a significant mistake in four hours' play, and as I told you on the phone, he checked off behind me on the river holding AA a little earlier when I held QJ in the SB to a T 9 2 K 6 board in that order.

[Vince Lepore]

That's a pretty good analysis there Howard. The only thing I find questionable is using the "to the river Scenario". I design my flop bet in cases like this to price him out of calling the turn card (unless I move in). I would bet enough here to make it a mistake for him to call with an 11 outer to the turn. The problem with that is that if an off suit paint comes and I put him on an over pair then I will be in an extremely precarious position on the turn if he calls the flop. But because of this dangerous board given my hand I don't want to pot commit. If I play this way consistently then my opponent will not get a message to try and bet me off of the pot.

The reason that I believe that you don't use the to the river scenario is because in No Limit each street is truly independent when not faced with an all-in decsion before or on the flop. When I bet the flop I bet to price him to make a mistake to call the turn based on what I put him on. If now the draw I put him on gets there I may have accept that I am done with the hand. If it doesn't get there and I believe that I still have the best hand I will make another bet that prices him out of calling to see the river.

Vince

[pokergripes]

Strange that he had the discipline to check off the prior aa (which I agree was a good check), and yet not to lay down his aa with no re-draw when you made the huge check raise here...

btw, all analysis of history is post-hoc, doesn't mean we should't analyze though... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[NajdorfDefense]

David, at the end of the day, do you put JH on anything other than QQ, TT, or KJs/J9s? If she would be on a few other hands here, like AQ or KK, couldn't you raise her back to define your hand better?
Obviously if she is only playing monsters, fold a pair here.

thanks,
Naj

ps Not a NL expert, but I do have about 9 2+2 books... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Sin Dee]

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Tough table at beginning of tournament. Everybody has $10,000. Blinds 25 and 50. Two early limpers. Hero limps in middle position with two black aces. Two late limpers. Flop QdTd4h. Small blind is Jennifer Harmon who bets out $400. All fold! How bad did hero play this hand?

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its just a girl so come on, you can raise her because she can't beat A/A.

this is why Gus and Dan win, its because they are willing to gamble a little (OK a lot).

I cant believe it took about 120 responses for someone to say one of the 1st limpers coud've been setting a trap with JJ or KK waiting for you to make it $200 and then almost 200 responses until someone said its worth it to.....

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"I think I have to be willing to commit some chips on this kind of risky flop... and you can't really go under 10% of your stack without causing more problems for yourself.
Unless DS could be seen as stealing (would David have that image, in this spot?) any reraise makes his hand an easier fold"

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I think with DS's reputation if he came over the top of JH on the flop she drops it like a rock putting you on Q/Q or 10/10.

If she calls or raises a $1000 bet you are def in trouble, but what do I know, I am just a newb.