Interesting No Limit Question - Page 22

RogerZBT · #**211** 10-08-2004, 04:07 PM

Usually, how long after posting these puzzles does DS post the "correct" answer?

curtains · #**212** 10-08-2004, 04:11 PM

BTW my original answer of min raising over and over makes a lot more sense if the board has no flush draw and you put the player behind you on a set. In this case, it's because there is no chance the other player with the straight could be freerolling.
In the current example it's hard to imagine a perfect world in which both players with the straight all have absolutely perfect reads on everyone at the table, which is what would be required for my plan to work.

tewall · #**213** 10-08-2004, 04:11 PM

Mayby I'm misunderstanding you, but I read you as saying you could raise hoping to bet the straight guy off his hand on the river if a diamond hits. I'm saying that river diamond could have made the straight guy his flush.

I agree with your overall logic, just saying that this branch isn't a viable alternative, unless you could read the straight guy as also not having two diamonds.

knucklehead · #**214** 10-08-2004, 04:11 PM

A call in this situation is like a waiting move in chess. Hopefully things will be resolved in your favor on the river. Folding is a mistake! You have a made hand, is it the best hand?

West · #**215** 10-08-2004, 04:12 PM

True...course, I would say that this possibility doesn't mean you should fold on the turn. If the board paired with a non diamond on the river, my inclination would be to bet it...if you get raised by the hand you put on a flush draw, you can fold, which obviously means you'd lose more chips than you planned to on the hand, but I think this is offset by the possibility of scooping the pot by getting the other straight to fold in this situation....

curtains · #**216** 10-08-2004, 04:15 PM

I changed my answer. Call with the intention of betting if the board pairs on the river.

tewall · #**217** 10-08-2004, 04:18 PM

You have to figure the odds of his free-rolling with the knowledge that he's gone all-in. In other words, the question is not what's the odds he was dealt the given hand, but what's the odds he has it given he's gone all-in. The odds are much, much smaller than 86 to 1. In fact the odds are very good that you are being free-rolled because he knows he probably won't get called unless you're free-rolling him.

CrisBrown · #**218** 10-08-2004, 04:20 PM

Hi Squirrel,

[ QUOTE ]
Your odds that he has another diamond are based on random card distribution and don't take into account the fact that he would be much more likely to play a suited hand that contains a jack than random card distribution would indicate.

This is like saying that before the flop if you raise, someone reraises, you reraise, and he reraises there is a
1 in 221 chance he has Aces. uh....no.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, okay, let's say it's 50% more likely than random distribution would indicate that, if he has Jd, he also has another diamond. That's still about 7:1 against his having it and thus about 40:1 against his both having it and making his flush at the river.

This problem only becomes relevant, however, if I raise, or if the player behind me raises, which reopens the betting.

If I just call, and if the player behind me calls, then I can see the river. If it's not a diamond, I get a chop. If it is, I don't put any more money into the pot.

If I call and the player behind me raises, then I'll see what the lead bettor does before I have to act. If he pushes ... eh ... I have a tough choice. I can't get any more out of the pot than is already in it -- unless the flush draw calls the push and the flush misses, in which case the lead bettor and I would divide the third player's stack -- but I'm risking the rest of my stack to get that.

That's why I think raising is a bad idea. Calling isn't bad, as I'm not risking much and I do have the nuts. To simply fold, though, is I think a bit over-cautious.

Cris

lucas9000 · #**219** 10-08-2004, 04:24 PM

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RogerZBT · #**220** 10-08-2004, 04:26 PM

Ahhh. I was trying to make the two possiblities clearer. Guess I failed. It seems to me like there are two seperate discussions going on - the people who are examining the possibilities beyond the puzzle and the people taking the puzzle at its word that nothing else "funky" is going on.

Obviously in the real world no matter how good your read is, there's still room for error and I would fold. In the "puzzle" world where it's implied the straight doesn't have a flush draw also, I'd raise, hope for a diamond and try to push the straight out.