2-4 hand

[Michael Davis]

With this draw heavy board, Clarkmeister believes there is a reasonable chance the CO is drawing. He doesn't know this. The cutoff could have a real hand, too. But Clarkmeister is justifiably worried that EP has him beat.

If indeed CO is on a draw and Clarkmeister can push EP out of the pot, he has now turned ace high into the best hand in a reasonably large pot.

-Michael

[arkady]

that is very fortunate friend to be receiving such assistance.

[PokerNoob]

CO is the poster child for "take the free card when given, particularly by a preflop raiser". Well played Clark. This is why you are you and we is us.

[Clarkmeister]

"how were you so sure that he was on a draw?"

I wasn't *so* sure. I just thought that it was a reasonable possibility. I don't need to be anywhere near 100% sure to make this play.

[Clarkmeister]

I knew nothing about my opponent. I do know that most players, especially online, will raise that flop both with draws and with made hands. He could have had either one.

[arkady]

Gutsy against an unknown.

I suppose the idea being, that there is some chance that he is on a str8 or flush draw and might fold - giving you the incentive to do it.

I just find the move particularly daring, because you are out of position. What would you do if he bet the river?

[DMBFan23]

Clark,

the CR on the turn, was that to get out EP, or were you representing something to CO? do you fold to CO's three bet on the turn? (I would). do you call a river bet? (I would). <--- I hope I got at least one of those right

[BottlesOf]

Are you calling a river bet here?

[ElSapo]

Hey Clark... interesting hand, thanks for posting it. Not knowing anything about your opponenent, and given that most players would play a queen and a draw in much the same manner...

But would they? Unless it's for value, most players on a draw are checking behind on the turn here with two more opponents. I don't think I like the turn raise, as you're behind at least one opponent (I'm guessing). You have ace-high.

How certain do you need to be he's on a draw? Ok, you can't be certain, but what kind of probability do you need here? If I recall, pot was 7-8 BB when you popped the turn. I'd guess he'll be on a draw about 1-in-4 times? Maybe more, who knows, I'm throwing that out. What I mean is, was this just a "hey, let's raise it and see if it works" play, or is this a calculated move based on pot size v the probability he's drawing?

I don't see a queen folding here, not at Party 2/4, so you're gambling to eliminate the guy in the middle if he has less. And the raiser still has to miss his draw and not hit his cards for a pair (which could be 3 outs or 6, depending on his hand).

Sorry to ramble. I don't think I like the turn raise too much. Too many things have to happen for it to work out.

Also, unless I missed it, you've yet to answer the "call a river bet" question. Which, if he's the kind of opponent to bet his draw into two players, he might just bet the river unimproved. Though doing that when he just got checkraised is tough.

And then you have to call the river unimproved?

You've created a big pot in that spot against a guy who's showing a fair amount of strength. Looks to me like you managed to create a big pot with ace-high and now might just have to call. All based on the probability that he's on a draw, continued to bet his draw on the turn, and desperation-bet on the end.

I see the reasoning of cleaning up outs if perhaps you're in a reverse-domination situation with either guy, like they have AX, but still...

If it's good, I'd love some more explanation. Just trying to learn...

[AviD]

Nice post ElSapo...I share many of the same thoughts...still waiting on that river bet response.