AK in the SB

[Zag]

The preflop goal with AK (on Party Poker) is (1) Isolate to a single opponent (2) as cheaply as you can. I say "on Party Poker" not because of the opposition, but because of the blind structure. With stack sizes usually around 50BB, TPTK (which is what you expect to make with AK) is a hand you are willing to get all in with. If the stack sizes are significantly higher, you really don't want to get all in with less than (a good) two pair, because anybody else willing to go all in can beat your TPTK.

In this case, you had already narrowed the field down to a single opponent, who, unfortunately, had position on you. Therefore, just call preflop and plan to check-raise any flop with an A or a K in it.

Note how a raise preflop plus a check-raise on the flop will be just about all in -- that is the point of my comment on the Party Poker structure. If a raise preflop plus a check-raise would still be less than half your stack, you would be making a big mistake by doing it. Then you are praying for a fold, because you would have to lay it down to a reraise or a call & all-in bet on the turn. It really sucks to put in half your stack and then lay the hand down, but you can pretty much count on being beaten when your check-raise is reraised.

So, what about the case you actually asked about? You raised preflop (let's say you had to in order to isolate) and the flop misses you. In this case, you are in a tough spot, as you discovered, one that you would like to avoid being in. That is why I would recommend FOLDING AK from the big blind if there were several limps and then a raise. You would have to reraise to isolate, and then you find yourself exactly where you did, with no hand (but still possibly the best hand), and out of position.

In this case, there are three choices, and you should sometimes do each of them. (They are in order of frequency, most to least often. I would say the ratio is something like 60/30/10 or 65/30/5.)
(1) Check-fold, abandoning the thing.
(2) Bet out, hoping to steal, and fold to a raise.
(3) Check-raise bluff.

Note that (3) is only available sometimes, depending on the stack size. You have to be sure that the bet by the opponent will not make him pot-committed, or he will just call you down anyway. Also, 3 is only useful against a player who is good enough to lay down a decent hand, plus aggressive enough that he is likely just trying to steal anyway. (These two don't overlap, but they are both necessary for the bluff to be profitable.) If the bluff works AND you and he are the only good players on the table, show it. The fish will never fold to your check-raises again. (Of course, you would never check-raise bluff against THEM.)

[bunky9590]

Why would I do anything except call there out of position?

[cornell2005]

[ QUOTE ]
That is why I would recommend FOLDING AK from the big blind if there were several limps and then a raise. You would have to reraise to isolate, and then you find yourself exactly where you did, with no hand (but still possibly the best hand), and out of position.


[/ QUOTE ]

folding to a 2 dollar raise with AK on the BB is horrible, especailly in those games. i understand what your saying about being in a tough position given that he raises preflop (though my reasons are a bit different it seems), but calling is a million times better option than folding

[Zag]

I have to agree that I don't hate calling, and I often would do it. It depends a lot on the limpers. But let's look at the whole picture.

(To recap) On Party, with typical stacks, you have AK in the BB, there are two early limpers by reasonable players, a pot-sized raise, and folds to you. What do you do?

1. Reraise to isolate? OK, but now you are putting in about 1/3 of your stack. If the raiser rereraises, what are you going to do? If he calls and the flop is a blank, what are you going to do? You've just put in 1/3 of your stack with a drawing hand out of position. I hate this option.

2. Call (as cornell advocates)? Note that on Party, this is about 10% of your stack. Of course, if one of the limpers reraises, you have to dump it. Much more likely, the limpers will just call. Note that, if these are reasonable players, very likely 2 of the 6 cards you are looking for are in other people's hands, so you are hoping one of the 4 remaining aces and kings shows up on the flop. Now one of four things might happen:

2a. The flop misses you. Note that this happens 68% of the time, IF all your cards are live. With my assumption above (at least two are dead), it happens 77% of the time. (I'll call it 70%.) Now what are you going to do? Abandon your preflop money, that's what. Trying to bluff 3 people is not likely to be profitable.

2b. You make TPTK and win just the preflop money. I put this at about 1/3 of the time you make TPTK.

2c. You make TPTK and manage to get all in AND your hand holds up. With three opponents, there is a good chance one of them will pick up 2 pair or a set, so you will lose your whole stack. Let's say that there is only a 25% chance of this occurring in the cases where you get all in. (This is low, I think, but sometimes you will suck out on a low 2 pair).

2d. You make top two or better. Since this is so rare, and you probably won't be paid off when you do (unless you are behind), I'll ignore it.

EV:
2a. 70%: -5 BB
2b. 30% * 33%: +15 BB (I'm not even raking this)
2c and lose: 30% * 67% * 25%: -50 BB
2c and win: 30% * 67% * 75%: +60 BB (One player all in, plus preflop from 2 more, minus rake)

So the total EV on a call is
= (0.7 * -5) + (0.1 * 15) + (0.05 * -50) + (0.15 * 60)
= -3.5 + 1.5 - 2.5 + 9 = +4.5

Ok, with my assumptions, the EV of calling is +4.5. I guess I you've convinced me. (Or I have.) Note, however, that if we change the percentage that we hit and lose by just a tiny bit, we can make this call -EV very quickly.

[t_petrosian]

I think you did fine, except maybe you raised more than you needed to preflop. You were consistent, though... you raised preflop..you raised post flop. He reraised you, which probably means he had an overpair. I think calling here is a mistake. My gut tells me that you're up against someting like QQ or JJ (the latter of which would CRUSH you). With two cards to come and you hoping for an A or K, and then only being about 50% sure that that will win the hand if you do get it (because of the possibility he does in fact have AA or KK), it's a clear fold after his reraise (in my book).

As I opened this post - you will not win every pot. We are all taught to raise with AK in any position against normal players in normal situations (refer to the Malmuth-Astroglide argument for more info here) and you did that. Things didn't flop to you and you got out. I think you did fine.

[TATCCITW]

I'm in agreement with Jordan here. I think the move would have been smooth calling preflop. Now most of the times I would get rid of the hand after that flop in action without a good read on the player.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
If you hit TPTK, check to him on the flop and min raise any bet he makes. If he goes over the top it's an easy fold.

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well that's obviously very dependent on the bet sizes. if hero puts in a large chunk of his stack with the c/r then he's committed and can't fold.

i personally think that as soon as an A or K flops (assuming board is not horrific like k [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] j [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) hero can't get away and wouldn't want to. stacks are shallow and party players overvalue TP-medium kicker or even 2nd pair.

[cornell2005]

[ QUOTE ]
The preflop goal with AK (on Party Poker) is (1) Isolate to a single opponent (2) as cheaply as you can.

[/ QUOTE ]

hey. why do you think this? AK is more of a drawing hand. you would want to isolate with a hand like JJ or QQ more than AK. especially on party poker, you want those Kx and Ax to see the flop and pay you off. the bonus to isolating AK is that its easier to auto bet a missed flop and take the pot, but this advantage hold with other hands almost equally as well. (this arguement is mitigated if you don't have the ability to get away from a big raise from 2 pair or trips. But 1. this shouldnt be hard and 2. the call preflop keeps the pot smaller and makes it much easier to spot a monster and get away. But even if you cant get away ever, the arguement still probably holds true enough)

nice calculations. my only addition is i would expect to get action more than 1/3 of the time if i flopped tptk, especially vs a preflop raiser. even if you only relegate yourself to a check raise, you should be able to get more money into the pot more than 50% of the time at some point in the hand vs a preflop raiser.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i would reraise preflop as you did and the push on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

i hate the raising preflop and pushing on the flop line. preflop, you can get anything from JJ to AQ to call you. if they miss the flop, your push does nothing, you have them beat anyways. but if tehy have QQ, JJ ect, your losing your whole stack. so your giving them a chance to get away on the flop cheaply if they dont hit, while you are committing your whole stack no matter what. thats very very good for him and very bad for you . pushing is a much better option than a stop and go with AK

[/ QUOTE ]

pushing would be putting 26 into a pot of 3. it's unlikely aq calls here, so you're either slightly behind (qq and below), behind (KK), or totally hosed (AA). or you win a very small pot - i think it's risking too much to win too little. on the other hand, if you think there's a chance AQ or below will call, pushing could be a good play.

[ QUOTE ]
if they miss the flop, your push does nothing, you have them beat anyways

[/ QUOTE ]

and if they make a pot- or near pot-bet with their missed hand, are you going to call? [that's rhetorical].

[ QUOTE ]
so your giving them a chance to get away on the flop cheaply if they dont hit

[/ QUOTE ]
that's why i reraise pre-flop - it's not that cheap. after the flop i'm risking 20 to win 14.

[ QUOTE ]
but if tehy have QQ, JJ ect, your losing your whole stack

[/ QUOTE ]

if they have a pair 77-JJ they will be hard-pressed to call a push if an overcard (or two) falls. also, it's not nearly as bad as "i'm losing my whole stack" - assuming it's all rags, i'm 26% to win against QQ. 26% to win a $55 pot, for an EV of $14.3. I bet $20 for something worth $14, so pushing and getting called by QQ is worth -$6 compared to checking and folding. Hardly a disaster.

(admittedly, i'm oversimplifying a little - it's possible that checking will get you a free card).

[schwza]

it's not at all clear how many outs you should assume. against a very tight raiser, 3 or fewer. against someone who will push as a semi-bluff with a draw (QT,T8, 2 spades), you should count it as more. and against a habitual bluffer, lots more.