Think I Played The Sucker

[doubleas]

Just calling with queens is pretty dangerous in my book. How will you know if they have aces or kings unless you reraise now when the price is cheap?

An ace or king will flop one third of the time, making you drop your queens to any flop bet. I bet the flop with anything if I was the preflop raiser...including JJ when an ace hits, which would get you to drop your queens.

I'd take the lead with the queens and you'll know sooner (when it is cheaper) if you are up against a bigger hand both preflop and on the flop.

Notice another post recently when a poster had AA and the opponent waited until both were pot-commited before finding out if his queens were good. It cost him his stack instead of a relatively cheap preflop/flop bet.

[TheGrifter]

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However, you do not have a flush. You have an underpair with 2 outs.

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He's got more than two outs.

If you're going to call the flop, you must raise the turn. I'd suggest you pot it.

[LikesToLose]

Regarding more than 2 outs, I don't think that he should assume his oppenent doesn't have the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I would still discount the 9 outs to a rivered flush, even if I didn't completely eliminate them.

[LikesToLose]

[ QUOTE ]
I noticed two of you mentioned a 90% fold rate on the flop, sorry if it's a stupid question but where does this percentage come from?

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It isn't a formula. There are very few things that you should 'always' do in hold'em, but folding pocket Q's with an Ace high flop and being bet into, after a pre-flop raise? You are beat or being played at. There is only one way to find out and that is to make a re-raise that is painful for him to call if bluffing. This sends a clear message, but is very expensive when he actually has you beat and will call. Hence, 90% of the time, wait for a better hand to put your money in, 10% of the time you can challenge him and maybe even get him to lay down TPTK.

[gcoutu]

Simple solution: raise the .5 bet on the turn a good amount and that will let you know how to play the river. As it was, no need to raise the river unless you want a call. I like to raise the river when I have the nuts, otherwise if you have not set a trap you should have just called the small bet. Never hurts to bet for information on the turn.

[t_petrosian]

You said that he was trying to trap you with the better hand. You are ABSOLUTELY wrong. He was scared that you hit the flush, so he was just throwing out a postoak $0.50 bet. $5 wasn't enough to drive him out, with 5 to 1 odds to call on the end. If anything, a monster bet on the end MAY have worked, but that is very risky. All in all, I put him on an ace early on - you should have, too. In fact, his actions are so straightforward it makes one wonder how you could NOT have put him on the ace, perhaps even AK. Let's recap - 1. Raises in early position, 2. Raises on the flop out of position when an A hits the board (he figures to have the best hand here). 3. A flush is made on the turn, and now he's scared that his pair of aces is no longer best hand - he throws out a crappy little bet to test the water. 4. Same on the end...

A previous writer wrote, and I fully agree, that if you wanted to buy this pot, the turn was the time to do it. Fire away after he checks to you on the turn (he effectively checked). You have a MUCH better shot of driving him out.

Just the opinion of an idiot

[gergery]

What cards will people put out a big raise with UTG?
Usually AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK. That’s pretty much it for standard play. They’ll mix it up and throw some other stuff in like AQ, AJs, JTs, 88, etc. some of the time, but that’s mostly to avoid being too predictable, not because its hugely +EV.

I think your preflop raise is fine: you learn he doesn’t have AA and probably not KK. Since you have QQ you can rule that out. AK is dealt more than twice as often as JJ, so his most likely hand is AK here, with AQ or AJ possible and JJ, TT also in running. Personally, I would probably just call, and get out when the ace hit since it’s very likely he has one.

On flop he makes a weak bet ($3 into 12), so maybe that’s a little confusing. I’d still think AK is very possible, but he might have those 99, TT, KK, AQ or a lower misdirection hand. You should reraise him around $10. He might lay down AT, AQ and should laydown KK, TT, KJ etc. You are risking $10 to win $15, so it only needs to work less than half the time to be a good play. If he has JJ, AJ, AK he’ll call or reraise and then you check/fold the rest of the hand. Now you should be thinking, “He’s got me beat and is weak tight, and that’s probably little more likely, or he’s bluffing me and a medium bet will push him out”.

On the turn with his crappy bet, he either missed his hand, which is entirely consistent if he was bluffing, or he has a hand but thinks you are on the flush draw. Since you didn’t bet hard on the flop, you don’t know which it it. Either way, you need to bet larger to get him to fold or show his colors. Calling is bad as you will only improve 1 in 5 times and if you do, he is unlikely to pay you off since odds are he doesn’t have a heart, especially since he slowed down on flop. With his very weak bet, I’d try to represent an ace or the flush and semibluff into him with a $10 bet at the $20 pot – which is enough to scare him.

On the river, you call his measly bet. He won’t fold for the bet amount you made. You can try to bluff him and pot ~$30 to represent the flush and make his AK fold, but that’s pretty risky.