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#11
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hey strip, i called for 15 more which means i need to expect to gain 120 from the call. I think, against these players, that I could. I really, really respect your opinion on this particular hand and it's probably true that it was a bit much. That's why I posted it. It happened to work this time, as the PFR had AK.
As I mentioned, I don't think that this is a typical line. Against these players, I thought they could fold hands that were drawing quite live against me and a couple hands that beat mine(especially pairs 44-77. If I suspect that the PFR has overcards, and can clear the field, I think it's worth a shot with similar marginal holdings in some cases. Trust me, I have been burned with overaggressive play in the past and have turned it down a lot. I still make plays in marginal spots every once in a while - maybe once or twice a day - but when you are playing 2k-3k hands a day these opportunities present themselves quite often. Besides, who wants to read about a hand where I have AK, raise preflop, flop a king, and bet and raise with the best hand the whole way [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] The point of posting hands like this is to bring to debate where the line is with regards to marginal EV plays. I'm sure there are a lot of plays that you make, or Schneids, or U, or Vehn, or Nate, etc, that most players don't think to make. And if you balance it correctly it can show a profit. I want to find out what the balance is. Furthermore, the way I played this hand postflop cost me 2 BB and was ENORMOUS advertising for later hands - another thing to think about. -James I really do appreciate your comments though, strip, thanks for you honesty. |
#12
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Why is it unlikely anyone has a 10? Limpers have tens all the time.
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#13
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Uh, because no one bet?
-James |
#14
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I'll go against the plurality and say that I think you played this very well. I don't play the six max, but assuming it plays like the regular 10/20, only more aggressive since it's short handed, I like every street.
Prelfop: this is a little close, especially if there's any chance of a check raise, but fine, I think. Flop: The bet from the preflop raiser means little more than overcards in my experience. You're in a clear raise or fold situation here. I like the raise in light of the lack of any suggestion of strength from the 2 limpers. Turn: Given your flop play this is a great card for you. It can't possibly help anyone, unless cold caller has 89 for the OESD. He's the one I'm worried about at this point. When he folds your hand is probably (and by probably I'm thinking probably to the tune of 75% chance) ahead -- wouldn't button have re-raised you on the flop with AT or an overpair? Would he have raised preflop with a 7 or 2 in his hand? Not likely. Something like 99 or 88? Possible, but again unlikely enough that I'm betting. River: the 9h is just a little worrisome. It's unlikely button had an 8 given his preflop raise, but maybe 2 hearts? My read would still be that he's on overcards and that YHIG. The question then becomes whether you're more likely to get the last BB out of him by betting and hoping he calls or by checking and calling his bet (I wouldn't check-raise here -- he'll only call with a better hand). That decision is player dependent. |
#15
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I don't like the pre-flop call, but it's close.
On the flop I think you need to fold and be done with it. You're facing a draw-friendly flop (reverse implied odds). The two checks to the pfr are consistent with both weakness and checkraise-worthy strength (and at the site I think this occured, with calldowns as well.) Even if nobody has you beat yet, this is not a hand you want to play against more than one opponent, since any card but a 2 can hurt you. |
#16
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Fair enough, I make these types of plays fairly often. I might shutdown after the flop cold call though.
It's very easy to mathematically see why the flop check-raise should be made fairly often I think. |
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