Blackjack strategy question for Homer

[JTrout]

[ QUOTE ]
here is my question:
is there a simple way for me to determine at what dollar amount versus what WR it is sensible to do this?

restated: $200 total to play with, 15xWR ($3,000) using vegas strip, is it worth it or am i likely to break even?



[/ QUOTE ]

If my understanding of your question and their site is correct-

The EV is -3.60 per 1,000 bets of $1.
So this should have an EV of + $89.20

[GrannyMae]

What do you want Granny?


to be spoken to in english

To maximize your chance of walking out with a profit with zero effort?. Then bet $1 with autoplay.

i don't care about a $40 or $60 profit, so i want to try something new, or just let the bonus go.

If that $200 is your "whole bankroll" for this venture, then your advantage is -0.38%+$100/$3000=~2.95%.

while i see your english speaking is starting to deteriorate here, yes, assume the $200 is the whole bankroll

Divide into 1.32 "Flat bet Variance", and you come to "Kelly"= 2.95/1.32=2.23%. Bet that % of whatever running BR.

WTF ??? don't start this shiit.

speak to me like a 6 year old please (seriously)

If you are a puss like me, bet 1.5% of BR.

would a puss not just bet $1/hand?

ok, i assume kelly and autoplay don't jive because the bet changes per hand? also, i don't care to learn this kelly crap, so unless there is a chart for dummies, fuk it.

what about the 1.5% of BR? does that change each hand too, or is it a constant $3 bet?

i DO appreciate the kelly conversation but it is wasted on me. i'm not gonna learn it, but will use elements of it if they can be easily applied with simple instructions.

[BradleyT]

[ QUOTE ]
this is not from wizard of odds

[/ QUOTE ]

M.S. is the wizard.

[BottlesOf]

I was under the impression that number of decks only matters if you're counting.

[Baulucky]

Bet 1.5%-2% of your $200, i.e.: $3.00 or $4 in autoplay. If your "BR" goes down to $100 (an autoplay feature), stop, and make your bets $1 or $2. If it goes to $300, then make your bet $4-$6, etc.

Autoplay let's you "stop" and readjust your bets.

If you don't care about your $100 that you depo'ed and want to take MAX or nothing, just bet it all, once and again till you have met the $3000 WRs.

Let me know how it goes.

[Baulucky]

You were under the wrong impression.

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
I was under the impression that number of decks only matters if you're counting.

[/ QUOTE ]

You make more blackjacks with fewer decks, I'm not sure if there are other effects of significance as well. There is a big difference in going from 1 to 2 decks or from 2 to 4 decks.

[CORed]

I haven't jumped on the blackjack bonus whoring bandwagon yet, so I'm guessing here, but I do know quite a bit about blackjack. There are two variations on the surrender rule in blackjack, usually called "early surrender" and "late surrender". With "early surrender", if the dealer has an ace up, you get to surrender even if he has a blackjack. With "late surrender" you lose your entire bet to a dealer blackjack. Both rules, with correct strategy, favor the player, but "early surrender" is much more favorable (and requires a different strategy). The house advantage of -0.16% is for early surrender. For late surrender, it is 0.39, vs. 0.38 for four decks with no surrender, a wash for all practical purposes. I seriously doubt that the blackjack sites are offering early surrender, because it would be asking advantage players to take their money.

[CORed]

Fewer decks favors the player because of the "effect of removal". With fewer decks, you get a slightly higher blackjack frequency and a slightly higher success rate on double downs. For blackjacks, if you get a 10 value card first, the number of non-aces in the deck is reduced by one. Conversely, if you are dealt an ace first, there is on less non-ace remaining in the deck. This effect is poportionally greater with fewer decks. For double downs, usually one or both of the cards in a double down hand is a card you don't want for your third card. E.g., if you are dealt 6 5 for an 11. Again, this helps you more with fewer decks.

[DogRockets]

Hey Granny...PM with an email addy and I'll send you a calculator that will figure this out for you for any game you know the house edge on. Very easy to use, 99.9% foolproof as I haven't screwed it up yet! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]