Common Situation

[Mike Gallo]

I will give a reckless answer and reraise and call a cap.

[Joe Tall]

3-bet of course. Your getting 4.5/1, it's likely all 6 of your overcard outs are clean, add in your runner runner and back door straight outs makes you say a 4-1 dog.

Given the times you can take a free card or get the original flop better to fold will make raising the right play.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[34TheTruth34]

[ QUOTE ]
it's likely all 6 of your overcard outs are clean

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know about this. I'll agree that most of the time your 6 outs will be clean, but I certainly don't think that the backdoor possibilities (plus the times that your hand is good or you get them to fold) make up for the times that you hit and lose a lot more. Those times are gonna be expensive if one of your opponents has AJ or has flopped a set or two pair. You have no pair and no draw, I don't see anything wrong with folding every time. Of the 21 cards that could come that would make you want to see the river, 15 of them give you only a draw. Plus, you're going to fold if the turn gets bet over half the time. Taking cards off to try to hit one pair doesn't seem like the best idea to me.

I agree that 3-betting is much much much much much better than calling. IMO it's the clear cut second choice.

[34TheTruth34]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding a strong hand because of some BS flop aggression when others assume you are much weaker than normal is poor poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're right. But folding no pair, no draw isn't folding a strong hand. And you don't know if the flop aggression is BS or not. I agree with all your positive scenarios that come from raising, I just don't think it's the best play.

[Broyle Dunson]

What hands would the blinds,typical 30/60 players,call,not reraise with and play in that fashion after the flop.A few are AJ,KJ,JQ,J10,55,44,A4,A5.Factor in the chance of reraises on the flop after a lead bet.In the minds of of your opposition,being on the button cuts your credability down,in some cases rightly so.Sounds like a fold to me unless a call or 3 bet will shut them down.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
Your getting 4.5/1, it's likely all 6 of your overcard outs are clean, add in your runner runner and back door straight outs makes you say a 4-1 dog.


[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming your 6 outs are clean, isn't that closer to 3-1 than 4-1? Add that to a backdoor flush and runner runner straights in two different directions, its somewhere like 2.4-1, isn't it?

To get a more precise answer, here's a question for you guys:
Just how many "outs" does AK have in this situation and what's his odds on the flop?

[DcifrThs]

you're getting 9:2. 6 in 47 cards will likely give you the best hand (i'd be happier with KQ as you guys say though because you could be up against an A5 or A4). so to catch in one card you're a 6.8333:1 dog. and intwo you're only 3.14:1 against.

but should you raise and they both call and check to you you get 5:1 effective odds on your 3.14:1 shot assuming that they both call (sb calls 2 cold and bb calls 1) and they both check to you on the turn and they won't call a bet on the river without improving so you don't gain a bet when you do improve. if you do, it gets better and you should raise. but thats countered by the fact that one of your outs may not be clean (the ace).

so clearly its raise or fold but i guess i'm a little weak and i'd fold it unless i really knew they'd check to me (which puts me in another canundrum because if one of them is open ended i actually have the best hand and need to bet the turn which reduces my effecive odds of hitting if i am behind a jack 5 or 4)

curious to see what others say...
-Barron

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
What hands would the blinds,typical 30/60 players,call,not reraise with and play in that fashion after the flop.A few are AJ,KJ,JQ,J10,55,44,A4,A5.

[/ QUOTE ]

typical 30/60 players will RERAISE preflop in the sb with most of those hands. AND you didn't include the possibility of 76s which is open ended here.
-Barron

[DcifrThs]

i like it joe tall.

did me one better. you're confident AND if the sb folds you're likely to win it with a bet on the turn. and even if the bb calls he can be open ended and you can check it down the river and win unimproved.

good response
-Barron

[Noo Yawk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Folding a strong hand because of some BS flop aggression when others assume you are much weaker than normal is poor poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're right. But folding no pair, no draw isn't folding a strong hand. And you don't know if the flop aggression is BS or not. I agree with all your positive scenarios that come from raising, I just don't think it's the best play.

[/ QUOTE ]

You'll never definitively know if flop aggression is BS or not, however in a typical 30-60 game the players are very likely to be trying to re-steal what they think you were trying to steal in the first place. That makes it a lot more likely that their raises are BS, then if you pre-flop raised from an earlier position. Your re-raise will get them off that notion plenty of times, and often enough to get them to throw away some little horsecrap pair they defended their blind with.
These situations are not just about catching flops, but more about playing poker well. Even if you lose this hand, which will happen often enough, you make it more difficult for players to play you. All I'm saying is that I know I'll make money by playing back at someone who is testing me, and show a profit in the long run. By folding I'm just wasting chips because I fear aggression. At 30-60 the players are plenty aggressive enough to try and play you off a hand that AK unimproved is enough to take a showdown with.
Make your early laydowns against passive players in small pots that only bet a hand, not against aggressive ones or you'll be eaten alive.