Nut flush on turn when you think full house made? Why Raise?

[easypete]

Alright... it's early on a Monday morning... Not enough caffeine.

Forgot about the pocket pairs.

JJ (3 remaining), 55 (3 remaining), 88 (1 remaining)

19 total hands / 1326 hands = 1.4% chance -->

P(not) = 98.6%^4 = 94.4% chance you have best hand.

I'm sure I'm forgetting some more hands. Even if... I still think bet/raise here.

[TheRake]

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But it is also an hour's work to make up if you lose...

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arfsananto,

What you say is true, but it is weak tight thinking. You should have enough in your bankroll so not to worry about the variance. pushing the small edges can make a big difference over the long run. Making an additional .5bb/100 over the course of 50,000 hands at 2/4 nets you an extra $1k. It also makes your opponents fear you. When they have the best of it and turtle to your aggression it saves you money. Ever see the way some people react to a maniac?

TheRake

[arfsananto]

So even though I may lose more money on some hands; the amount that I will make extra with a little extra aggression on winning hands, plus hands that I win that I "shouldn't have", could actually give me a higher win rate with about the same variance?
Plus, I understand what your saying about bankroll. Not much point in keeping a 300 BB bankroll if I'm not willing to use it.
Something to think about, thanks

[ProfLupin]

And remember that even though JJ beats you, it's very unlikely that someone doesn't raise that hand preflop, so I'd throw out that one all together.

[RED_RAIN]

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Call the c/r on the flop.

Raise the turn.

Peace,
Joe Tall

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The reason I 3 bet cause I wanted a free card and though he would only call instead of cap. When he capped it also told me I was against a set or 2 pair more than likely.

[Joe Tall]

When he capped it also told me I was against a set or 2 pair more than likely.

You learned a lesson how valuable the information you get from raising. (it's not that valuable)

The reason I 3 bet cause I wanted a free card

The play is extremely over used and used in correctly. Often you will be 3-bet by a better hand or bet infront of on the turn getting you no where.

Calling the c/r here is the correct play.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[bicyclekick]

[ QUOTE ]
When he capped it also told me I was against a set or 2 pair more than likely.

You learned a lesson how valuable the information you get from raising.

The reason I 3 bet cause I wanted a free card

The play is extremely over used and used in correctly. Often you will be 3-bet by a better hand or bet infront of on the turn getting you no where.

Calling the c/r here is the correct play.

Peace,
Joe Tall

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Joe, I don't really see what 3 betting hurts here on the flop. You're getting almost even money (would be even but I figure maybe that goofball has a set and therefor you could hit your flush and lose to a fullhouse redraw.

I think you'll get a free one often enough to make up for any small margin of money lost on the flop, and also will confuse the piss out of them. Then again if a club comes on the turn they'll be less likely to bet into you so you can raise them and pick up a bet there. I dunno, hmm.

Maybe you're right. Got me thinking at least.

[B Dids]

But isn't the correct play to raise, not for information, but to build the pot for when/if you hit your flush?

[sublime]

Already built up enough for him by the raiser.

The check/raise on the turn is more profitable.