Dream situation for KK

[CrisBrown]

Hi crockpot,

Let's work it out in terms of EV:

If I set him all-in at the turn, assume he'll fold 78% of the time. In those cases, I win $500. Of the 22 times that he calls, I win $750 18 times, and lose 750 four times (when he hits his flush and I pay him off). My EV to push at the turn is:

((77 x 500) + (18 x 750) - (4 x 750)) / 100 = $490/hand

Now, let's say that he'll always call the turn bet of $120 (he did), and call off the remaining $130 if he misses (he did). In that case, of 11 times I make this play, I will win $750 9 times (when he misses), and lose $750 twice (when he hits). My EV for that play is:

((9 x 750) - (2 x 750))/11 = $477.27/hand

That's a margin of 2.6%, well within the margin of error for my assumptions of his call percentages. That is, the difference between them is statistically insignificant, and both are good plays.

Cris

[crockpot]

i don't dispute your math here, but do you really think he'll call off the remaining $130 at the river with a busted flush draw that didn't pair? and what experience has led you to believe the opponent will fold 78% of the time when he called an overbet check-reraise on the flop? i would expect the percentage to be easily lower than this.

[CrisBrown]

Hi crockpot,

[ QUOTE ]
but do you really think he'll call off the remaining $130 at the river with a busted flush draw that didn't pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not worried about whether he has a pair; I have top set. His only win is to hit the flush when I don't fill. And he did call when his flush missed, thus my assumption.

[ QUOTE ]
and what experience has led you to believe the opponent will fold 78% of the time when he called an overbet check-reraise on the flop? i would expect the percentage to be easily lower than this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, let's say he calls 66% of the time and folds 34%. I win $500 when he folds. Of the 66 times he calls, I win 54 times for $750, and lose 12 times for $750. So my EV is:

((34 x 500) + (54 x 750) - (12 x 750)) / 11 == $485/hand

This is lower than when he calls 22% of the time -- I lose some fold equity -- and closer to the $477.27 EV of my play. Note that if he will call 100% of the time, we will get the $477.27 EV of my play, which assumes he'll get all-in every time. If he will never call himself all-in at the turn, my EV for setting him all-in is $500.

That's only a 4.6% increase in mean profit, with a 50% lower max profit. Basically, I traded a marginal portion of my mean profit for a greater max profit, and the more likely he was to call himself all-in at the turn, the less I traded off.

Cris

[Acesover8s]

[ QUOTE ]
He was getting just over 3:1 to call at the turn, and he probably thought he had 14 outs (2 Queens, 3 Sixes, and 9 Spades). If indeed he'd had 14 outs, he'd have been right to call me. In fact, he had only 8 outs (Queens and Sixes don't help him, and 2 makes my boat). So he's a 9:2 dog, getting only 3:1 on his call, with too little money left in his stack to make good on implied odds if he does hit.

That's why I chose to bet $120. It was intended to be tempting, and when he called it pot-committed him, but he wasn't getting good enough odds -- even with implied odds -- to chase an 8-outer.


[/ QUOTE ]

This rhetoric is fine afterthought. If you know his hand this line of thinking may be correct, however, it is entirely possible that he has many more than 8 outs against your hand.

Furthermore, your bet does not pot commit him here. Let's say he has something like 5-6 of spades, he is surely not going to call on the river. Against someone who has put as much in as he has, just bet it all, it looks more like a bluff anyway. It allows you to charge an insane amount for th draw, and its just fine poker.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but do you really think he'll call off the remaining $130 at the river with a busted flush draw that didn't pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not worried about whether he has a pair; I have top set. His only win is to hit the flush when I don't fill. And he did call when his flush missed, thus my assumption.



[/ QUOTE ]

You missed his point completely. He's saying that not putting him in on the turn only worked out for you because he happened to have a pair of Queens in addition to his flush draw.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
He was getting just over 3:1 to call at the turn,

[/ QUOTE ]

He's actually getting almost 4:1, because you are pot-committing yourself. You're just not making him pay full price for those odds by betting small on the turn.


[ QUOTE ]
I didn't think he'd call it at the turn, and I wanted his whole stack.
..
Color me greedy. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]


[/ QUOTE ]

If you think he has a flush draw, then you're much more likely to get his stack by pushing on the turn. You got very lucky because he had exactly the Queen-high flush draw.

[Ulysses]

This guy will:

a) Call the raise to $100+ on the flop.

b) Always call the $125 turn bet and call the $131 left when he misses on the river.

c) Fold 78% of the time to a $250 turn bet.

Your logic doesn't make sense and your EV calculations really don't say anything without putting this guy on a range of hands first.

For example, what's the % chance he has TsJs? You're giving that hand great odds on the turn and won't make anything on the river most times when he misses.

[1800GAMBLER]

Funny how every single of one of the 'I play good check the results' posts always get flamed.

[Ulysses]

Pre-flop: If I've been aggressive and bluffing a bit, I'll just go ahead and raise this at an aggressive table and hope to get raised.

Flop: $10+8+24=42+24=66, so a pot raise is $90. I'd have to be playing against real idiots to raise more than that, as you let a lot of guys (including flush draws) get away from their hand at that point. I don't like overbetting the pot here.

Turn: Against someone who flat-called that raise on the flop, I'm pushing here.

[CrisBrown]

Hi Ulysses,

As for the pre-flop limp, as I said, that's kind of a 50/50 thing for me, depending on my read of the table. Many of the pots were raised, but few were reraised. So I suspect if I'd raised, I'd either have just won the blinds, or more likely had a couple of callers but no reraises. I'm not saying I'm right, or that you're wrong. Half the time I'd play it your way. This was the other half.

As for the flop, yes, I probably did overbet the pot when I reraised. I was actually hoping to take the pot right then and was surprised with CO called. When he did, I wanted his entire stack.

At the turn, setting him all-in was more positive EV by a roughly 3% margin, depending on how often he'll call it. As with any trap play, I traded a bit of fold equity for a better chance at a bigger payoff.

BTW, his count of outs was not dependent on which flush he was drawing to. The best possible pure-flush holding was Qs2s, as then he'd have his full 9 outs. With any other Q-high flush draw, or any other draw including the 2s, he has 8 outs. If he holds neither Qs nor 2s, he has only 7 outs.

His best possible hand was JsTs, in which case he had 13 outs (4 Aces, 4 Nines, 5 other spades). But that is the only possible hand for which he had correct odds.

Cris