Why doesn't the old roulette trick work? - Page 2

Stew · #11 03-01-2004, 01:08 AM

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If your bankroll is infinite, how could you possibly win?

Add $10 to that infinite bankroll. Are you now any richer?

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you would only win if you stopped when you won two spins in a row.

ZeeJustin · #12 03-01-2004, 01:20 AM

You are missing my point. In any gambling situation when you set aside a bankroll, you are considered a winner if your bankroll increases, and a loser if your bankroll decreases. If your bankroll is infinite, it can neither increase nor decrease by definition; therefore it is impossible to either win or lose.

JTG51 · #13 03-01-2004, 01:37 AM

Yes it would, it doesn't matter if it's a 50/50 proposition, you will always profit with the martingale system given an unlimited bankroll and no limits.

That's completely ridiculous. Without doing any math, just think about what you are saying. Your claim is that if you make enough bets with a negative expectation you are guaranteed a profit in the end. That's pure nonsense.

JTG51 · #14 03-01-2004, 01:48 AM

If your bankroll is infinite, it can neither increase nor decrease by definition...

I'm really nitpicking here for no good reason, but that's not really true. Some infinities are larger than others. For example, the set of real numbers is larger than the set of natural numbers. Uncountably infinite is larger than countably infinite.

Of course that's all irrelevant since even if your bankroll was infinite it could never be uncountably infinite, which probably makes this a good place for me to stop babbling.

Jim Kuhn · #15 03-01-2004, 01:54 AM

You are thinking that you can flip a fair coin ten million times and it will always be the same heads/tails? What about 20 million?

JTG51 · #16 03-01-2004, 02:09 AM

You are thinking that you can add a series of negative numbers and end up with a positive number? How many does it take?

Thythe · #17 03-01-2004, 04:02 AM

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You are thinking that you can add a series of negative numbers and end up with a positive number? How many does it take?

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We aren't talking expected value here. No matter how bad the odds are, if you can keep increasing your bet to infinitum and there are no limits you will make money. For example say the odds are 4:1 against. You bet 25cents and lose...now you bet 2 dollars and lose.....now you bet 10 dollars and lose.....you keep increasing your bet until you do win....and since you can increase your bet continuously on your first win you will show a profit. Having an infinite amount of money and seeing no table limits, you must win eventually.

WarDekar · #18 03-01-2004, 04:09 AM

Well you have to STOP. That's the key. As someone else pointed out if you have an infinite bankroll you can't exceed infinite so I guess it's a moot point, but whatever.

Nottom · #19 03-01-2004, 04:11 AM

Well you don't really have to win eventually. If you have infinite money and infinite time, you will eventually hit an infinatly long losing streak.

WarDekar · #20 03-01-2004, 04:12 AM

Thank you, someone realizes my point. It is moot though since if you have an infinite BR you don't need anymore, but still. You will always profit unless your last "roll" or whatever it is is a loser. You have to, that's the definition of the Martingale system. Of course you do have to stop sometime though in order to profit.

If you don't believe it, try it. If you know how to program, program it for millions of trials. You will win at the rate of your chances to win the first roll or spin or whatever, as long as you stop at a win.