Basic 08 situation I'm unclear on: top trips

[crockpot]

this is worth a bet, especially if you expect to get called in multiple places. if someone else has bet, though, you should call and see what hits on the turn. you won't knock out the hands you want to get rid of, and a lot of cards can come that will make you want to fold on the turn and not invest any more money in the pot.

[Buzz]

"I still think I'd bet here, given that I might be able to buy a free card on the expensive street in a relatively passive game."

El Dukie - I suppose it's possible.

"Even if a low card comes, many of the more passive players will check-call nut lows on the turn if there was a flop bettor, because they're afraid they'll get quartered. It really depends on the table."

Agreed.

"I think you're playing top set like a good drawing hand where you're looking to make a boat with 7 outs on the flop and 10 on the turn."

I'm playing this top set like a good drawing hand. In general, I'm playing jacks, tens or nines as top set like a good drawing hand. (and maybe some others - but not generally aces or kings - and for a different reason, not low sets, in general).

"I'll grant that it's easier to get away from the hand if you check the flop and a flush or 3rd wheel card comes on the turn and someone bets,"

It's damned hard to get away from the hand when that happens, in my humble opinion, whether you bet the flop or not. I'm not advocating checking the flop because it would be easier to get away from the hand if a low card appears on the turn.

"but you might be getting pot odds to see the river anyway (say a high flush card hits the turn and you can scoop with a paired board)...."

Yes. With five opponents seeing the flop, even if there is no betting on the turn, and even if the flush (but no low) makes on the turn, one player bets and accidently flashes the nut flush plus the nut low draw, causing all the other players to fold - even then you're getting favorable odds to see the river for one big bet.

"I'd agree with checking if it was something like a top set of 8s or 7s."

If you are fairly certain all five of your opponents (or even four of them) will call your bet, the bet does not seem horrid. Figure you need to make a full house to have much of a chance to win here. Also figure that roughly half the time when you do make your full house you'll have to split the pot with low. Also figure that for the purpose of getting favorable odds for betting, the money already in the pot is dead money, having nothing to do with the odds for making a fresh bet. In that case (those cases) half the time you earn four bets from four opponents on this betting round, and the other half of the time you earn one and a half bets from four opponents on this betting round. So with four opponents, you're averaging about 2.75 bets, plus implied bets, on this betting round. Because of implied odds, betting here with four opponents is not horrid. But get down to only three opponents, and I think the balance tilts the other way. It's that close, in my humble opinion.

There is one more consideration, which might not matter much in games with really poor players. By not betting the flop, you make it more difficult for your opponents to put you on cards if you bet the turn. In other words, nobody will be able to put you on the very strong hand you will have if the board pairs on the turn. And after the betting is checked around on the second betting round, someone may well bet into you on the third betting round if the board does pair on the turn.

As long as you are fairly certain of getting five callers, you're getting so much fresh but dead money into the pot that it's probably favorable to bet the flop. However, if you drop down to three callers, I don't think it is.

Most games in which I play where six of us would have seen the flop for a single bet would drop down to three or fewer opponents after this flop - if I bet this flop from the cut-off seat after it was checked to me. That's what I would expect, based on my experience.

Thus, on balance, someone with a reputation for solid play probably does better by checking this flop.

Just my (studied) opinion.

Buzz

[Buzz]

"and a lot of cards can come that will make you want to fold on the turn and not invest any more money in the pot."

Crock - Here I strongly disagree with you. It would honestly be very difficult for me to get away from the flopped top set on the turn after this particular flop, regardless of the turn card. For me, it's part of the enigma of playing this hand in the first place - if I catch a ten or a jack on a flop without an over card, unless the betting goes nutso, I'm pretty well stuck seeing two more cards. I think anyone who does get away from flopped top set on the turn is playing what is called a "weak" style. Been there -done that - not a good style.

Buzz

[Buzz]

"Personally I see more value in the KQJT hands than the KKQJ hands because top two plays almost as well as top set, and it brings with it an open-ender."

Hoof - Interesting. Kind of a moot point with me, because I'm going to want to see the flop with either of these hands, if they are at least single suited. (Non-suited, I might back away from either of them, especially KQJTn, depending).

I much prefer KKQJd to KQJTd (by about 40.7 to 31.2). Similarly, I prefer KKQJs to KQJTs.

But I've seen your point of view advocated elsewhere. Maybe it depends on one's playing style.

Buzz

[crockpot]

your disagreement is most correct. i screwed up my language in that post. what i meant was that if a club, ace, three, five, or six comes off and a couple of people start capping the betting, and the pot is not that big pre-turn, you should get out of there. i guess i just think that's a lot of cards because they always hit when i'm in this situation.

still, i don't like raising on the flop unless there is little chance of knocking anyone out. your raise is likely to knock out the hands you want in and keep in the hands you want out.

[El Dukie]

Buzz,

Some final thoughts on this subject. FWIW, I think this particular hand may be more a matter of personal style. I still think I'd bet the flop, but I do think checking is a valid option. And again, it depends on the table. As you point out, the more loose and passive, the more likely a bet will draw in more almost-dead money from weak players.

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In general, I'm playing jacks, tens or nines as top set like a good drawing hand. (and maybe some others - but not generally aces or kings - and for a different reason, not low sets, in general).

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Agreed. How I play aces depends on whether there are other low cards on the flop, and whether I have a low draw. But I'll usually be pretty aggressive with Aces or Kings, less so with Queens, and anything lower I'm drawing. I typically won't play bottom set at all against any pressure.

[ QUOTE ]
By not betting the flop, you make it more difficult for your opponents to put you on cards if you bet the turn.

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With a board of T 4 2, I'm not so certain my opponents would put me on a good high hand anyway if I bet. What hands might I bet here, besides top set? A35x, AA3x, A36x, nut flush draw along with a decent low, 356x (though I'm not likely to be in the hand with 356x), and maybe a few others. In other words, I think most people would put me on a nut low draw + some sort of high draw. (Though I'd be less apt to bet a str8 draw with two suited cards on the board). As you say, though, this may be a function of playing against poor players....

[Buzz]

"I think this particular hand may be more a matter of personal style."

El Dukie - Agreed.

" I still think I'd bet the flop, but I do think checking is a valid option."

And I agree that betting the flop is also a valid option.

"And again, it depends on the table."

Agreed.

"With a board of T 4 2, I'm not so certain my opponents would put me on a good high hand anyway if I bet. What hands might I bet here, besides top set? .......In other words, I think most people would put me on a nut low draw + some sort of high draw."

Good point. Most people would put you on something other than a set of tens if you bet here.

Still, since I'd fully expect most people to bet after flopping a set of tens, I'd be more likely to later mis-read anybody's hand who didn't bet here. You might not give me much of a clue by betting, but you'd definitely throw me off by checking.

However, for those opponents who are not able to read their opponents anyway, subtle deceptions obviously don't matter. And to profit from someone who is skilled in putting opponents on cards and thus who would be thrown off by the deception, the board still has to pair. Odds are the board won't pair anyhow.

Of course if the board doesn't pair, you may (depending on the subsequent action of the player who has the button) save a small bet by checking. But saving one small bet here turns out to be of relatively minor importance.

Buzz

[FredJones888]

you have trip 10 and no other draw either high or low except to hit 4 of a kind which is unlikely enough to forget about at the moment. Basically you have a mediocre made hand against drawing hands, and there are two cards to come. I would be nervous in that situation in a full ring limit game.

you said it was checked to you.

some would say bet, but that is only good advice if you think the drawing hands will fold. They probably won't fold and the odds of winning with 3 10's is really not that great and the odds of improving to 4 10's is much lower than that. Personally I would check. If there was a raise behind me I would call. If the turn was favorable I would bet, if unfavorable I would fold.

[FredJones888]

I think you missed the flush draw. In this situation you must be afraid of the flush.

[FredJones888]

"I dutifully call with my 4 cards T+ when I get them."

this is the actual problem, not the play after the flop. you think that if you have 4 cards 10 or better you have a good hand, this isn't true if you are playing HI/LO.