An Interesting WSOP scenario...

[J.R.]

It costs you nothing to fold.

It costs you your hand's EV, which is likely to be very significant, especially in a tournament where you need to be aggressive, push edges and continually build your stack.

Folding AA in either situation is a little crazy. You are either a 4.5-1 or better favorite or 96% likely to chop. This is magnified when you are re-raised, as you are getting better than 1-1 on you call, depending on the size of your intial raise. Your opponent does not need to have Kings, Queens or anything else very often for this call to be immensely profitable.

You need to make some big hands to win an large event like this, and this is too huge an overlay to pass up.

[TheGrifter]

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It costs you your hand's EV, which is likely to be very significant, especially in a tournament where you need to be aggressive, push edges and continually build your stack.


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I see your point, but I just would not call in this (very unlikely) situation. If someone did push in this early I would be shocked if my opponent did NOT have AA. And I am not risking 10K and a chance at a big pay day even if I am only beat 1 out of 25 times. In a large field tourney such as this the blinds will increase what? Every couple of hours? There are many many hands to play before you have to start worrying about the size of your stack.
The scenario itself is probably not likely to occur but I can imagine only one likely situation in which someone would push all in on the first hand of a major tournament, if they had AA (No fear) and wanted to send a message to the table. KK and QQ just wouldn't do it, in my opinion. Therefore, I'm not taking the risk.

The reason I'd be more inclined to call if re-raised is because KK or QQ are more likely to push in in that situation to attempt to steal whatever bet has been put it.

[blackaces13]

I think you'd have to be completely insane not to call. Pocket aces are better than a 4:1 favorite over any hand in the game. You're not gonna get any better odds than that to double up so what are you afraid of?

[J.R.]

I am not risking 10K and a chance at a big pay day

I understand your thought process and argument, and submit that your reluctance to take risks and play the aces is actually why you are risking a chance at a big payday. I believe you have to be willing to lose to have a chance to win in a tournament of this magnitude, and with the nuts preflop, I think you have to take a chance.

[djdonnel]

This is exactly the argument that I made when I had this discussion with my friend. However, the more I talked to him the more I began to buy into the very idea that the WSOP now more than ever has become a marathon, not a sprint. If you look at the chip leader after the first day, or even the second day, there's a great chance you won't see his name at the final table and possibly not even in the money. The reason is there is a LOT of poker to play. And while you might double your stack to $20 g's right off the bat 80% of the time (maybe even more), you stand to get knocked out 10-20% of the time, and that's a risk not worth the reward at that point.

If the same scenario came up on day two, or three or later, as blinds become larger, the payday is closer, and you're talking about doubling your stack to 200k instead of 20k, then you'd be nuts to much aces...

That being said, as much as I think I would muck if this were to happen to me, if I were actually sitting there, its quite possible I might throw this whole thing out the window and push my stack into the middle

[J.R.]

I agree that its early, and there is not any pressure to take on high risk situations, but getting it all in with the best hand preflop is not a high risk situation. High risk is thinking re-raise with AK or TT versus a tough players early position raise, or facing a big check-raise on a connected middle flop with jacks or tens.

Here's the WSOP blind structure (I believe) for the first 4 rounds (2 hr rounds):

1 25 - 50 0
2 50 - 100 0
3 100 - 200 0
4 150 - 300 0


Would it matter if this hand came almost 8 hours later, when the blinds were 150-300, and you had 10K as did your opponent, who goes all-in? Lets say you just got moved to a new table so your read is not appreciably better than your proposed situation. The presence of 350 extra chips in the pot preflop should not effect your strategy. I think you have to be willing to call in this spot.

I think playing LAG style in an effort to become the top stack on the first day is quite different than getting it in preflop with AA. Playing that LAG style is probably the biggest reason those first day top names don't often hold onto their position. Doubling your stack here (with minimal risk) allows you to be patient and offers some measure of protection as you can now play pots with shorter stacks without the risk of busting.

[Syko_Skotty]

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Does your decision change if you're sitting at a table with a bunch of unknowns at the table vs taking a seat and finding the likes of Chan, Ivey and Hellmuth all sitting to your left?

I'd love to hear some thoughts...

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<font color="purple">First of all, I don't fold the hand, I call it. You can give me any reason you want, but what I think most of you are forgetting here is that your opponet was crazy enough to go all-in on the first hand, and you're the only one at the table with the cards to call. You can't walk away from that, if for any other reason than folding lets your opponet know VERY EARLY that you can be bossed, bluffed and out played.
Now, if I had that company at my table, it wouldnt matter at all. Those veterans are unlikely to make that call, and if they did, then I can say I went head to head with the worlds best and they didn't back me down an inch. </font>

[CrackerZack]

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1. Someone raised in front of you:
- Easy fold. The blinds are meaningless at this point. Your opponent most likely has AA meaning you will probably tie but have a slight chance to lose (or win). Why risk everything you have at this point? Doubling up this early in a tournament is nice, but it doesn't even guarantee you'll survive 5 hands, much less 5 days. Your opponent obviously is not playing well, an all in raise this early is stupid with any hand, so wait until you have a big advantage after the flop. It costs you nothing to fold.

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This is utterly ridiculous. You really believe that you have any significant EV in a huge tourney like that? You have a chance to double up where you CANNOT be an underdog but don't take it. You're nuts. I invite you to a tourney. I'm just gonna push in and have you never call until the blinds get high, then i might try to play normal with my chip lead.

[Ulysses]

I'm stunned at how many people:

a) would muck

or

b) wouldn't want to be in this situation.

If I could have any scenario for the first hand of the WSOP, it would be someone going all-in and me looking down at my cards to find Aces. If you don't want to be in that scenario and wouldn't instantly call in that situation, I suspect your chances of doing well in any tourney situation are pretty slim.

[Ulysses]

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Will having $20,000 in chips this early in make you significantly more likely to last 4-5 more days?

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I don't know. It'll make you significantly more likely to last 1 day, though.

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I can be reasonably sure that over the course of a few hours I can accumulate just as many chips through superior play both pre and post flop

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Against a random table of WSOP entrants, you are reasonably sure you can play with a bigger advantage than getting all your chips in the middle as a likely 4:1 favorite? Wow.