To Bet the River or not?

[rtrombone]

You have the first guy beat. MRBAA, how can you possibly put him on three aces or kings? He wouldn't have stopped raising when the best CJC can possibly have is three queens. He's got either aces up or kings up. CJC said he's decent, so he wouldn't go ape on 5th with a diamond draw.

So the first guy is going to pay you. This makes it a clear value bet. Who cares about the second guy? If he made his straight or flush, he's going to call you, and you lose. Fine. If he missed, he's going to fold, and you will make one big bet from the first guy.

According to TOP, you value bet when you are a favorite if called. Whatever draw the second guy had going into 7th, did he have a better than 50% chance of getting there? Not likely. He probably had a 20-40% chance of getting there. So 60-80% of the time he will have missed. 60-80% of the time you will make money on your bet from the first guy.

Of course, you may get raised. If the first guy raises you, he's got a boat. You should probably call because of the size of the pot, but I think better players than I would be able to lay your hand down. If the second guy raises you, he got there. If your read on this guy is so good that you know he wouldn't call you unless he has you beat, certainly you can fold to this raise, right?

[MRBAA]

Okay, I've played in the Foxwoods 5-10 for about 20 hours over the last 4 months, so that's not a ton of experience to draw on. But I've found that in the type of situation CJ describes here -- more than one opponent with more than one bet on a big bet street -- I'm often beat. Just as a lot of loose players will stay to long and call too much, many will also back off too much when there's raising. Especially when the action's coming from someone who is seen as a "good" player. I've gotten several comments about this in hands I've lost where opponents played very passively. In my last session, I lost with trips to a straight and my opponent checked sixth and the river to me (I checked back since I was pretty sure he had the straight). he said something like "I was worried about you because I know you play good cards". (CJ, this was an older regular named Nicky(?) Anyway, in this situation, I don't think it's out of the question for Player 1 to have trip kings and Player 2 to have a flush going into the river. I also think either could improve. I really don't feel there's much value in a bet here, especially if player 2 won't call if he doesn't have a flush.

[dogsballs]

You'd have to hold me back with wild horses from betting the river. The 6th st action pretty much seals the fact you're ahead at that point. They didn't bet into you, so value bet the river yourself! Someone has to put a bet in on that river. If someone slipped you a 5 card hand, bully for them.

A tougher decision for me would be whether or not to call a C-R on the river. My answers: Yes from player 1/probably No from player 2.

[Andy B]

Why would we assume that player 2 will only pay off if you're beaten? Does he never pay off with hands that don't beat three Queens? I'm going to guess that he had a pair to go with his flush draw. If he snags trips, he's not going to call? He has never paid one bet in a big pot with two pair? It could be that you're not the 55% favorite you'd want to be if called by him, but the having the other player in makes this a clear bet.

If he only calls with a flush, I think that's all the more reason to bet. I don't think I'd fear a check-raise from either of these guys too much. Bet your damned hand.

[CJC]

Hello,

I thought this hand was interesting. ( Hence why I posted it ) Anywhoo, I think its interesting cause I think it is really close between betting and checking on the river.

I know I am up against 2 draws here. Player 2's hand is so easy to read its pathetic. ( pocket 88 giving him a straight flush draw ). Player 1 is the problem, I know if he makes something like Aces-up he will probably pay off. Player 2 is only calling unless he beats me( unless POSSIBLY he caught a 3rd 8 ). ( and yes, he isn't betting a flush into me. He knows damn well I have a set here, and is also worried about player 1 )

So, what did I do.. Well I just checked it down.. Player 1 threw down his Aces with his flush draw ( as I expected ) and Player 2 showed his hand to everybody( I didn't even need to look as I knew exactly what it was )

Now, alot of you said bet.. and I can't say thats a bad idea. Like I said, I really think it was close. I almost did bet it, luckily for me I don't think it cost me anything.

CJ

[DoctorK]

My rule of thumb is "Will I get a call from a hand worse than mine." Will opponent 1 call with Aces up or Kings up? Will opponent 2 call with a busted flush by 2 pair? If either of these is a yes, then you have to bet.

Doc.