AK UTG

[naphand]

A good rule of thumb based on sound thinking. I like rules of thumb as they help to focus the mind on the decision-making process. In this case its kind of: "on the Flop you must have a good reason to call, on the River you must have a good reason to fold".

Thanks for that.

[naphand]

Yes - it is a terrible school, which means I can get away with some poor plays - certainly sub-optimal plays. That is also part of the reason I play there.

When I have clocked up a good number of hands - say 30,000+ and have had the chance to work on some of the ideas here, and iron out my play a bit, I will try to play at some higher limits. $5/$10 is out of my bankroll at the moment but some other sites offer intermediate limits shorthanded so I will test myself there. I agree that this is necessary as it really highlights the weaknesses/holes.

The QQ post was a bit exceptional, I knew I played it badly before I posted it (in fact I knew I was playing it badly at the time), but I wanted some feedback on how the hand developed. The K8s and this one were more normal. I do frequently make some good plays that I am very pleased with when I review, but it is the types of hands I am posting here, perhaps more marginal, that help to really define the limits of my game, which is why I post them. They may not even be typical, but they show my own lack of understanding, which needs to be addressed, as you say.

I don't feel ready to up my limits just yet, the bankroll is just not enough, and my experience too little. It is very easy to think you are better than you are. You guys help keep me aware of what I need to do. Much appreciated.

[naphand]

Totally correct - it was fold the Turn or call the River. Both were preferable options to my play.

I guess I called the Turn as I was hoping he did not have the flush and I wanted to try and improve. Yeah - wrong, wrong, wrong. I see these guys doing this all the time. I just hated folding the hand, and hated the idea of calling down when I was sure I was beat. Amatuerish mistakes, I know.

Mr read on this guy was fairly good and he just was not the type of player to bluff a single Ace - he would call it to the River. Yes - I do see players making these plays a lot, and would call down, certainly, against players that I had seen try this. But, as has been pointed out, I had enough information to make this decision on the Turn, and I put an extra bet in.

At the time I thought I made a good laydown, but now I can see it should have been twice as good.

Thanks for putting the options so clearly.

[soda]

Bah!

Folding the turn is a poor action - IMO. Sure, it's romantic and has sweet berry flavors to it, but a bad merlot, is still a bad merlot.

On the turn, you only fear a flush, top two, or a set. Every other hand and you have enough odds to continue. Many times you will be ahead. You must play on here. The additional heart on the turn can stop you from raising, sure, but folding? Such thoughts are for fools and chairs and you do not much look like a chair to me.

[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I'm interested in hearing what others have to say about this - the idea of a turn fold here, just seems... wrong.

soda

[Ikke]

Let's see FTOP wise against Qs5s (which he had). He has 8 outs (2 aces, 3 kings and 3 two's).

So EV(calling)= 11.5*(8/44) - 1*(36/44) = +1,27 BB

(It's 8/44 because you know Q5 is out).

So folding would cost you 1,27 BB in this case. Based on probabilities it would be less (no outs against flush and set, and less against two pair with an A (although AQ might have reraised PF), and not taking button into account), but combine that with the fact that he might be ahead as well in a big pot, it shows that it's indeed a poor fold. I think the mistake has a magnitude of about 0.3-0.8 BB based on the read of your opponent (you can calculate it way more accurately, but I havent got the time). It's still a lot though.

This whole hand shows that you don't want to make "good" folds in big pots.

Generally, in shorthanded it's just way more important to make good valuebets than good folds, because your handreading won't be nearly as accurate as it can be in a 10-handed game.

Regards

[redwings03]

I am swearing off AK in tournies...not really, but nothing like being on the wrong end of big slick 4 times...2 with and 2 against. Play it carefully is the best advice.

[naphand]

I have played some NL at the same limit $1/$2 and this really does help (forces) you to fold when you believe you're beaten. I am glad I played NL because it does sharpen up this part of your game.

I really did feel I had to be beat here, but I think the fold does look bad now but, only because the pot was so big. This is how I read what you guys have said - "fold was bad here as the pot was so big". I think folding in this position with a smaller pot would not automatically be a bad fold, its important to draw a line based on this.

I see lots of these players call to the River with any part of the flop, and I make a lot bets because they do. I am sure some of them have read about not folding to bets so easily in short-handed, or that they often have the odds to draw with middle or bottom pair/good kicker. But this really is pot-dependent. It's the same with low pairs - if you have limpers you can play them, if not you don't (unless you are playing weak players or the blinds/HU). Many clearly do not know how to decide based on pot odds/implied odds. Although I understand this to a degree, I cannot always make the calculations when playing. It's great when people post up the math - but I guess in the end you have learn to *know* when its correct to fold or not. This is surely pot-size and player/game dependent. I hate *never fold like this* as *never* is a very big word. I prefer Sklanskys approach which is more *consider* etc.

I think it is clear that in the higher limit short-handed games, this play would be really wrong. BUT in the typical Party $1/$2 I think it is not so clear. You do get players who will bluff into you if they see you fold a few, but I will adjust as soon as I see that and attack back. Most players in these games are very loose and passive.

I am convinced, however, that my fold here was poor. I am not convinced though, that in the games I play on Party, that this will lead to me getting bluffed out a lot. I think the majority of players are too dumb to make those kinds of plays - there are some, but they are easy to spot by the way they play anyway (that is they are selective PF and raise good hands).

Also - I do not see that folding occassionally to a flush draw is so bad. If that encourages people to bluff at me then so be it, I will win more $$ off them as most of the bluffs I see are badly timed or pretty feeble.