Question - Page 2

Sheriff Fatman · #11 12-14-2003, 01:55 PM

I've just tried running some showdown holdem simulations in TTHE to try to replicate this (can't set it up exactly as stated unfortunately) which seem to suggest that 65s holds up best in this scenario.

Against AA, 65s is clearly best.

Against AKs, 65s is the highest ranking combination with the exception of the other pocket pairs, AKs and AKo which all score better than it.

Setting up a 3 handed table with one player holding AA and the other with AKs (again not exactly as stated) also results in 65s being the best combo.

Thinking about the result intuitively it makes sense. Pocket pairs do well against AKs but struggle against AA as there are few ways to win (limited flush potential and no chance of 2 pair in particular). Against AKs there are better hands to hold, but 65s holds up better than most as it has full up and down straight potential and good flush chances.

The crucial factor must be that it also reduces the ways in which AA and AKs can win be eliminating boards resulting in the low end A-5 straight. 76s also does this to an extent but not in as many ways as 65s.

As I've come up with an answer which I can justify in my own head I'll risk looking daft by posting it (hopefully its right). I'll will admit here and now that without the simulation results I'd never have picked it!

David Steele · #12 12-14-2003, 01:55 PM

The TT must do better then lower pairs because it is more difficult to end up counterfeited with 2 pairs on board.

D.

bunky9590 · #13 12-14-2003, 02:58 PM

seems simple enough, KK but I may be missing something. Unless you have AA or Aks yourself. that would be sweet.

Noodles · #14 12-14-2003, 05:03 PM

I would have intuitively thought that KK would be the worst in this situation

tpir90036 · #15 12-14-2003, 08:16 PM

GuyOnTilt · #16 12-14-2003, 10:23 PM

You're one of several people to respond with 65s now. That's most definitely not the correct answer.

GoT

CrackerZack · #17 12-14-2003, 10:38 PM

only Because AKs is included. Why is TT better than JJ in this scenario? Or QQ?

GuyOnTilt · #18 12-14-2003, 10:45 PM

only Because AKs is included.

Yes, this is why.

Why is TT better than JJ in this scenario? Or QQ?

I still haven't had a chance to run any numbers, but I chose it because it makes more straights than QQ or JJ without using the K that you have one less of in the deck. Not sure if that's actually the correct reason, but it makes sense in my head...

GoT

EDIT: The reason I chose 88 as my 2nd choice is because it makes one more winning straight than TT does, but that may or may not make up for the fact that it's more easily counterfeited...99 is an obvious no no because it makes one less winning straight than 88 and is lower than TT. Not sure if it's TT or 88 though...I'm going to try and figure this out without the help of outside my brain...

alphamale1 · #19 12-14-2003, 11:12 PM

Your numbers are good, but what about AKs?
It should not be among the others in the list, 1010,QQ,JJ, etc.
When I hold AKs, I don't want to tie this player virtually 50% of the time when he has AKs and lose the remaining 38% when he has AA. 12(24)% win no good.
Think real percentage for AKs is closer to 24%.

Benman · #20 12-14-2003, 11:21 PM

David's question doesn't really tell us enough information, in my opinion. What he doesn't tell us is whether the relative probabilities of my opponent's holdings (AA v. AKs) are dependent or independent of what I choose as my two cards. If they are dependent, and I choose KK, then it's far more likely that he's got AA than AKs. If it's independent, then it's much closer (6:4) and I'd take my chances with KK, since it's the only hand that's a big favorite over AKs.