vegas trip report

[Easy E]

well, expected return does, anyway. See my reply below

[Easy E]

Well, unless my math is wrong, maybe you ought to rethink being happy about the "fact" that "technically more odds lowers your disadvantage"

Combined house edge on the pass line and taking odds

1X odds
0.848% $5 + $5 odds = $10 x 0.00848 = 8.48 cents

2X odds
0.606% $5 + 10 odds = $15 x 0.00606 = 9.09 cents

Full double odds
0.572%

3X odds
0.471%

3-4-5X odds
0.374%

5X odds
0.326% $5 + $25 odds = $30 x 0.00326 = 9.78 cents

10X odds
0.184%

20X odds
0.099% $5 + $100 = $105 x 0.00099 = 10.4 cents

100X odds
0.021% $5 bet, $500 odds = $505 x.00021 = 10.6 cents


Note that the casino's expected return goes UP by almost 25% when you use 100x odds. Not quite the "gain" that you expected for yourself, is it? (we'll ignore comps you'd be getting, which of course would change the number somewhat)

Now, if you lost 5 bets in a row at single odds and 5 at 100x odds.... do you still feel that you made the best bet that you could?

That's what the casinos are about- they've a bigger bankroll, so they can outwait you. The same concept applies to higher returns on slot machines.

Why do you THINK that they offer higher odds? It's not just a marketing gimmick...

As I said before- save the big bucks for the poker game buyins- take your WINNINGS, where your edge should be much better, and try to roll up a score at craps.

[banditbdl]

While I agree you should save the big bucks, hell all the bucks for poker buy-ins it is better to play a game with 100X odds than a lower odds game. That said, unfortunately you're calculations are indeed a little off they should read more like:

1X odds
0.848% $5 + $5 odds= $5 x 0.00848 + $5 x 0 = 4.24 cents

or a 0.424% house edge

2X odds
0.848% $5 + $10 odds = $5 x 0.00848 + $10 x 0 = 4.24 cents
or a 0.283% house edge.

etc.. etc..

100X
0.848% $5 + $500 odds = $5 x 0.00848 + $500 x 0 = 4.24 cents
or a .008396% House Edge.

The odds bet are x 0 because by definition they are EV=0 wager between the house and the player. That said I've only played craps as a social event with my non-poker playing friends because you simply can't win in the long run.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, unless my math is wrong

[/ QUOTE ]
It is.

The house edge in that chart is the total edge for the house. Odds bets are even money bets. The more odds you take, the less edge the house has on the total bet.

[ QUOTE ]
Note that the casino's expected return goes UP by almost 25% when you use 100x odds. Not quite the "gain" that you expected for yourself, is it? (we'll ignore comps you'd be getting, which of course would change the number somewhat)

[/ QUOTE ]
Nope, the amount of expected return is exactly the same - they have the same house advantage on the original bet regardless of odds. The percentage expected return is way less since you're betting a much larger total amount. You are correct that the greater comps on the larger bet will make it an even better bet for you.

[ QUOTE ]
That's what the casinos are about- they've a bigger bankroll, so they can outwait you.

[/ QUOTE ]
You are correct that they have the ability to offer you even money bets if being able to make those bets will make it more likely that you place bets where the house has an advantage - that's what's going on w/ craps.

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you THINK that they offer higher odds? It's not just a marketing gimmick...

[/ QUOTE ]
It is in large part just a marketing gimmick. By offering higher odds, they hope to get more action on the craps table. The more non-odds bets they get, the more money they make.

[ QUOTE ]
take your WINNINGS, where your edge should be much better, and try to roll up a score at craps.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you weren't going to gamble at craps in the first place, I don't see any reason why you should want to do it with money you won at poker.

[leon]

Sorry you went to all that trouble Easy. You see with Ulysses' and other's replies that taking more odds does not increase the house edge.

The reason why they offer the odds is twofold- one, it IS a marketing gimmick in the sense that someone who doesn't understand the odds might think they have a WINNING bet. Note I said WINNING, not breakeven which it is in actuality. This leads me to number 2- since it is a breakeven bet, the casino stands to lose nothing in the long run, so they can offer it, esp with all the other people taking no odds, making hardway bets, etc. As you correctly pointed out they have the huge bankroll, they can grind anyone down over time, so it doesn't hurt them to offer odds to a player like me b/c they still have the same advantage over my pass line bet. But that doesn't make it worse for me. Any action I give on odds is by definition a break even, completely neutral bet.

As to taking poker winnings and making a score at craps, I never play craps expecting to win (obviously). As I stated in the original post, I know where the advantage lies. I actually consider the money two seperate entitites- poker I earn at such and such rate, and stuff like craps is just money that is being spent. No different than if I was a full time pro and used some of my money to buy a gift for someone- it's gone, evaporated. If I truly protected ALL my money I wouldn't put any of it into action in a casino game, but for that matter I wouldn't buy anything non-essential. I consider something like craps a consumer item no different than spending money on something you don't really need. That's why I said I kind of wished that my family/friends played more poker- so I could spend time with them in a + EV situation rather than a negative one.

Take care.

Leon

[Easy E]

thought it applies to the total bet as a combined figure.
I wonder why your calculations and Michael Shackleford's (sp?) are different? no matter.

I guess it's primarily a casino method to getting you to bet more money, so they have a greater chance of wiping you out faster when you hit a cold streak.

thanks for pointing out my error.

[MHoydilla]

I am very young guy 22 with a tat. on my right forarm and used to play daily at foxwoods 10-20/20-40 HE, some pl HE. Been in vegas on and off for 18 months.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Let's define EV, or expected value.

EV is the amount of MONEY you expect to win or lose in a given situation.

Now edge.

Edge is the percentage advantage or disadvantage in a given situation.

So, if we bet $100 on the flip of a fair coin, each of us has an EV of $0 and an edge of 0%.

But let's say that I agree to bet my $120 vs. your $100 on each flip of a fair coin. Your EV for each flip is $10 (50% chance you lose $100, and 50% chance you win $120; 50%x120 - 50%x100 = $10). Since you're risking $100, your edge is $10/$100, or 10%.

Now, instead of this price, let's say instead that I offer to bet you $550 to your $500.

Your edge is $25, which is an improvement as compared to the $10 edge of our previous bet. However, your edge has just dropped from 10% down to 5%, which makes the bet sound worse.

A more craps like example now. I say I'm sick of this $120 to $100 stuff. But I still want to gamble with you. I say instead of 120-100, let's make it $520 to $500, or I'll quit the game.

Your EV is still the same $10 per coin flip. If we do this one million times, you should be ahead by about 10 million. But your EDGE is now only 2% instead of the previous 10%.

That's exactly what is happening in craps when you take odds, except reverse the situation. YOU are the one taking the worst of it for the original bet, but nobody has any edge for the odds bet. This dilutes the house's edge from it's original 1.4% down to whatever (depending upon how big the odds are that you take). But, the EV of the total bet is still exactly the same for the house, 1.4% of your original pass line bet (or don't pass, if you prefer).

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Homer]

Thanks Greg. I understood the mathematics of the situation, but was unaware of the disctinction between "edge" and "EV".

-- Homer

[Ulysses]

I knew you were going to post this response, Greg. Obviously you don't spend enough time wagering large amounts of money on -EV games like I do. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] I was going to mention this in my original response to you, but was short on time.

While you're mathematically correct given the parameters you lay out, this isn't a realistic scenario. Here's the way a table games player approaches this situation:

Hmmm... I'm going to gamble w/ $10k tonight. I think I'm going to play some craps. I think I'm going to play about $500/roll. OK, now I'm at the table. I can either bet $500 on the pass line or I can bet $100 and take 4x odds.

Of course, this is an oversimplification, since I'd of course place a few more -EV bets - I mean, you need to have a bunch of spots covered with a hot roller. And why not toss a few quarters on hard eight?

Anyway, you're correct that if someone is choosing between $5 (pass) + $500 (odds) and $5 + $0, their EV is the same since the odds bet is even-money. But in reality, the decision is more like $500 (pass) + 0 and $5 + $500(odds), in which case the latter choice is defintely greater EV (less -EV) than the first one.

I mean, if you had to play craps for $1000/roll total bet (first roll doesn't count, etc. - don't be difficult) and you could choose to play at either a table w/ 5x odds or 100x odds, you'd choose the 100x one, right? That was my only point here.