Simulation Results AA3sQs vs AQQs3s

[iblucky4u2]

Buzz,

You are absolutely right about a pair of Aces being better than a pair of Queens. And thanks for making me aware that the sims include overall win % including the factoring of splits, scoops etc.
However ....
The real problem with Aces is when an Ace hits - then you are normally in till the river. In the case of AAQ3, say the flop includes an Ace another low and a T-K, even rainbow. Unless the board pairs, you are almost certain to loose to a flush or str8 and in a majority of cases, even if you hit, you will be splitting the pot with a made low! How often have we all seen the scenario where we hit the set of A's on the flop only to loose high to a made low on the flop or turn that freerolls to a low (anti-nut) flush or str8. When there are 2 made lows drawing to high hands it can be one of the most expensive leaks in most players games.
Do your sims include those types of variances? With AQQ3, if the flop misses you, you are out of there with a minimal damage to your bankroll.

[Buzz]

iblucky4u2 - Good point. It's easier to get into trouble overplaying the aces in AA3Q than the queens in A3QQ.

Buzz

[iblucky4u2]

Buzz
All in all, I'd be happy to pick up either hand in most low limit games and take my chances.

[iblucky4u2]

Amazingly enough, last night I played some 1-2 O/8 (all that's available on land in Florida) and had AA3+high card 3 times. Each time an A hit on the flop and each time I lost to a made hand on the river and each time costing me a few bets!
If not for these 3 hands, my session would have been much more profitable!
Fortunately, I had A3s + high pair twice. Once the high pair hit to make a scopped full house and the other I split with the nut low [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
Interesting when you are studying a subject how it pops up at the table.

[Buzz]

"Each time an A hit on the flop and each time I lost to a made hand on the river and each time costing me a few bets!"

iblucky4u2 - I hate it when that happens. Sorry about your misfortune.

"If not for these 3 hands, my session would have been much more profitable!"

For sure. And as a result of your experience I don’t think I’ll ever be able to convince you that A-A-3-Q is a better hand than A-3-Q-Q. Indeed, for you it hasn’t been, thus far.

“ Fortunately, I had A3s + high pair twice. Once the high pair hit to make a scopped full house and the other I split with the nut low”

I imagine that will reinforce the belief you already have expressed.

As much as possible, I try to figure what the odds are and keep them on my side. Doesn’t guarantee I’m going to win. Just makes me feel more competent. Doesn’t really matter in terms of these two hands until you get to a drawing situation after the flop or turn.

Before the flop I think we’re both playing both of these hands. After the flop, whether we make three aces or three queens on the flop with either hand, I think we’re probably continuing.

“Interesting when you are studying a subject how it pops up at the table."

Yes. That often seems to happen to me also. Alas, not yet in this particular case, but maybe soon. I write “alas” because in my humble opinion both of these hands, A-A-3-Q and A-3-Q-Q are strong hands - and I agree with your last post that I’d like to be dealt either one of them.

Buzz

[iblucky4u2]

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"Each time an A hit on the flop and each time I lost to a made hand on the river and each time costing me a few bets!"

iblucky4u2 - I hate it when that happens. Sorry about your misfortune.


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Nothing to be sorry about - that's the fortunes of poker.

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"If not for these 3 hands, my session would have been much more profitable!"

For sure. And as a result of your experience I don’t think I’ll ever be able to convince you that A-A-3-Q is a better hand than A-3-Q-Q. Indeed, for you it hasn’t been, thus far.

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Actually I've had some great success with the AAQ3 type hands. The lessons of last night's hands are to be learned such as how important it is to have backup for a low and how carefully AA hands must be played when an A does hit.


“ Fortunately, I had A3s + high pair twice. Once the high pair hit to make a scopped full house and the other I split with the nut low”


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I imagine that will reinforce the belief you already have expressed.

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Just that one needs to recognize the limits of ANY hand, no matter how good it looks.

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As much as possible, I try to figure what the odds are and keep them on my side. Doesn’t guarantee I’m going to win. Just makes me feel more competent. Doesn’t really matter in terms of these two hands until you get to a drawing situation after the flop or turn.

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Absolutely! These are the type of points you make that all of the readers of 2+2 can learn from.

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Before the flop I think we’re both playing both of these hands. After the flop, whether we make three aces or three queens on the flop with either hand, I think we’re probably continuing.


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Stuborn as poker players can be - we will continue. However, if a low is made on flop or turn (and we can't make one) and there is lots of raising and not enough players, we need the discipline to lay it down.