QQ in the small blind

[hockey1]

[ QUOTE ]
It's either AK, AA or KK raising like that. Call and see a flop

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure why you think it's AK, AA, or KK, but if you're right then the right play is surely to fold, not call.

[Jon Matthews]

I'm not sure why you think it's AK, AA, or KK, but if you're right then the right play is surely to fold, not call.


Well, ok, I'm not sure, but I certainly would expect it.

The reason I expect these hands is that people are constantly burned by their big pairs getting beaten by trash and sometimes raise huge to preclude this from happening again, so that only a similar calibre starting hand will take them on, if any. AK would make this raise to get it heads up or take the blinds, both of which are the best situations to be in with that hand. People overplay these consistently. That said and less frequently TT, JJ will do this...

It's true you're a dog to AA and KK and it's essentially a coinflip with AK, BUT that's only if you get it all in preflop. So just call...

Now, the reasons to call are as follows.

You can't go folding big pairs to single large raises, there are a lot of large pots you can win when a substandard or a high cards hand has made this move.

There are 16 ways that AK can be made up versus 4 for AA and 4 for KK, so if his range of hands were solely these ones, then you know you're a slight favourite over 2/3 of them. You can easily see if you're still a favourite once you see a flop and play passively if there's an A or K there or if the flop is low and your opponent starting splashing chips all over the place.

The times where the flop is low and you opponent is playing passively, you can be more sure of AK and take the pot when you want if the turn and river (if you make it that far) blank.

[KUBowler99]

So then what do you suggest the correct play to be? Flat calling the initial raise? Raising all-in? Folding?

I'm not trying to argue, just interested in your thoughts.

I did re-read his post and my response, and I agree that folding after you push half your stack in is questionable at best. But I do believe that a re-raise is in order.

Thanks,
KUBowler

[mauisupaman]

Jon,
Just wondering, do you think it would be a big mistake in the long run to go all in preflop given this same situation with no read on the player? Thanks

[WalleyeJason]

Jon,

Excellent advice.

WJ

[Jon Matthews]

Say you only face AK, AA or KK

You lose half the time to AK and win half the time, it's just slightly +EV. Against AA and KK, you lose 83% or so, making it a losing play overall.

Obviously you face lots of other hands eg AQ, TT, JJ and sometimes 99 making a play like this but it is a small enough proportion of the time that you won't make a +EV situation out of it, in my opinion.

Seeing a flop, weeds out the AK's and once you fold on those A, K high boards you're in a much better situation overall.


Jon

[mauisupaman]

Jon, that makes good sense to me. Thanks for the insight.