Funny Semibluff Outcome

[James282]

J_V, I raised because I believe I could either win the pot right there or on the turn, and I had outs. When do you semibluff if you hate semibluffing against weak opponents? I didn't have the immediate odds to simply call, and I thought that by raising I would increase my chances of winning the pot without improving, which is why we semibluff, Against typical opponents I would not have played the hand this way...but against these opponents I felt that it was right. If I folded the SB off of a smaller pair when the turn showed an 8, then my play was right, wasn't it(or in this case, as long as he could beat 7 high)? Please elaborate as to why you believe this to be a bad play, or maybe give an example where a semibluff would be much better. I still hold by the flop raise and turn bet shorthanded against weak opponents.

The river bet, however, has to be the right play. I know that he only needs to fold 1/6 of the time for this to be +EV... and if you figure he will call with 6x 8x 7x and 5x the probably of him having each is:

3 6s + 2 8s + 2 5s = 7
3 7s = 3

So I am getting 6/1 when there is a 7/3 chance he will fold(maybe better if he is ready to fold a 6, maybe worse if he will call with an overpair) and I check, definitely a bad move.

I guess my gut was just screaming "this guy will call no matter what if he called 2 cold on the flop" and I was ready to ditch the semibluff on a small pot. I'll be firing the last barrel on the river next time, though, thanks for the advice. Any criticism on the flop or turn is fine too, just appreciate reasons that is all [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
-James

[Depraved]

Not betting the river here is catastrophic. When the board pairs again it's my only play. The odds favor it heavily. I mean, I couldn't check even if I wanted to.

[cero_z]

Hi Depraved,
You would check, as James did, if you realized that the button was a weak player who'd shown no indication that he was going to fold. If James did read him, he would have seen that the button was going to make a crying call. How could he know that this player actually had 4 high? I put him on a 6, when reading the post.

[Depraved]

Reads can be inaccurate. IMO, this particular situation called for a final bet even if you think you had a better than average read on the player. I can't count how many times I thought "well after all that calling, he has to have something", only to be shown a jack high busted gutshot draw that takes down a pot after we both check. Of course there are times when they call and win, but the pot-odds were always right for me, just like they were here.

The quality of the play, and thus the gained EV in this exact case are more important than the read.

Anyway, after reading the post, I thought it sounded like the other player may have had a calling hand, but never did I believe there were hands he could be calling with that he wouldn't muck on the river.

[JasonM]

This reminds me of a hand I was involved in a couple months ago in a 6/12 game. I raise preflop with AKs, flop is QT8 with two of my suit, he bets, I raise, he threebets, I call. Turn is an 8, I check, he bets I call. River is a Q, I check now he gets this concerned look on is his face and calls for time, I hear him mumble a profanity and say something about getting counterfeited, now he bets and before I even get a chance to grab for chips he says "You Win." I immediately call, he had 77.