Pair and an overcard...what do you do? - Page 2

Jezebel · #11 09-09-2003, 04:34 PM

I think calling is the preferred play.
[ QUOTE ]
-8...so preflop there is $18 dollars in the pot. It is 20.3% to hit 1 of 5 outs with 2 cards coming.

If I raise on the flop, there is now another $16. Assuming I hit, I will get another bet in on the river. There is another $16 dollars...of course, I am really only making $16 dollars, not $32 after the flop.

So, I figure...4 out of 5 times, I am out 8 dollars from the raise on the flop, and I muck when I miss my hand. Thats $32. When I hit my hand (1 out of 5) I will make $18 dollars (dead money in the pot) and $16 post flop.

$34 dollars/$32 dollars - looks like positive expectation to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lets look at what happens when you call.
1 out of 5 times you will put $4 in on the flop. If you spike your ace you will raise the turn and possibly collect another bb on the river. So $18 of dead money plus $16 of turn money = $34 + gravy collected on river. 4 out of 5 times you will pay $4, miss on the turn and muck if the odds aren't there to continue. So 4 X $4 = -$16. Better expectation and you don't worry about getting a free card. However, raising against a weak tight opponent as a semibluff might be correct if he will occasionally drop top pair to a raise on the flop.

ropey · #12 09-09-2003, 04:43 PM

I'm not sure if I understand exactly what you are saying.

If I call and muck the turn, then I am paying $4, and mucking almost 90% of the time. Your odds are not 1 in 5 to hit the turn, which I think makes it better to try and take a free card.

If I just call the flop, and the turn, I am then out $12 dollars each of the 4 times (out of 5) I miss.

-ropey

NoChance · #13 09-09-2003, 04:49 PM

This all makes sense but there is still that other possibliity where he may already have two pair and you only have 3 outs. Does the chance of this being true outway the positive ev you just calculated?

Jezebel · #14 09-09-2003, 04:58 PM

Doh!! you are right. You are a 8.4 - 1 dog to hit on the turn. So lets say 8.4 times you lose $4 = -$33.60 and 1 time you hit and earn the $24 in the pot plus $16 from the turn raise = $40 + river bets. Still looks like calling is the way to go.

hockey1 · #15 09-09-2003, 04:59 PM

I think your calculation is off. I think your 5:1 based on the assumption you'll see the river card, but you assume it'll only cost you the $8 raise on the flop rather than the $8 raise on the flop PLUS the possibly $8 call if opponent bets the turn (which ended up not happening, but could have). So I think you need either to assume it'll cost you more than $8 to see both cards, or assume $8 and 10:1 to see only the turn which you'd fold if opponent bet.

ropey · #16 09-09-2003, 05:05 PM

That is a good point. And I haven't calculated the EV of that situation...However, keep in mind, that the only way you are going to stay in the hand is when you improve your hand. If the opponent does have two pair, then your two pair will beat his...and your trips will beat his two pair as well.

Once again if a king comes, you can safely fold. The only other situation that improves his hand is if the board pairs (assuming he has two pair).

I just didn't consider the scenario that he flopped two pair to be very likely (partially based on my read of the player; he wasn't particulary happy when I raised him)...and even when he has two pair, only a small percentage of the time will he fill up.

That very well may be something that needs to be accounted for though.

-ropey

ropey · #17 09-09-2003, 05:22 PM

That is a possibility...but very unlikely in this particular situation. I raised preflop, and again on the flop...how many players do you know that like to get raised 3 times in a row? I think the only way this conservative player would bet into me on the turn is if a King comes; and if so, I'm mucking anyway.

-ropey

ropey · #18 09-09-2003, 05:36 PM

One problem with that...When the Ace comes on the turn, against most players, you probably won't get a turn raise. When the ace comes, most conservative players would check with just a pair of Kings, and maybe even fold.

-ropey

hockey1 · #19 09-09-2003, 06:10 PM

That's totally fair. I'm thinking, though, that in light of the fact that the EV calculation was so close, it's worth assuming that there's SOME chance he'll bet. Let's assume he bets out one time in 10. I think that means that it'll cost you: $8 + (.1 x $8) = about $9. I don't have your initial equation in front of me, but isn't that enough to make the play negative EV? Especially if you assume that not all your outs are clean?

ropey · #20 09-10-2003, 10:37 AM

Alright, lets assume he does bet one time in 10. That is $8 dollars...There are other times when you will get more value on this play though...case and point: I got a raise in on the river because my opponent bet back into me. I believe that will happen at least one time in 10 you.

I understand it is close on raising or folding on the flop. It seems for every situation where its going to cost you $8 more than you expected, there are also situations where you will gain $8 where you didn't expect to.

I am just curious how others play ther A10s when they pair their 10, but its obvious someone has a higher pair. I typically muck this hand, but it seems there are times when it is correct to take this hand to the river, since you have the overcard.

-ropey