A passive players capping range.

[adsman]

the discussion backed up what I thought, which is obviously that I suck. I checked and villian checked his JJ behind me. I let past results where I had been raised dictate my play on this hand when I need to keep reminding myself that each hand is a seperate event. Thanks for the comments to all.

[POKhER]

I'm in shock. I think you played this hand perfect IMO.

Nice hand.

I'm wondering if your opponent misplayed his hand, Did he think you we're blind defending? Holding TT/JJ?

Why didn't he find the fold button anywhere? I reckon he spewed that hand by calling down.

Atleast now he may respect you more [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

could you clarify, Did he slow play to the turn or river usually as this changes my line.

Let's look at facts :

He is passive and his hand range for raise/capping ---> TT-AA / AK, AQs? :S not sure about that. He may have had no cards but there are 1(AA) 1(KK) 3(QQ) 6(JJ) 6(TT)

If we are going to bet / call we need to have 66% chance to win this showdown when he calls. He has to call with JJ / TT 11/12 times for this bet to be profitable.

This for me makes it a clear check / call hoping for him to bluff with his JJ / TT after he missed his gutshot on the turn.

True

Edit: Then again, how often will he do this? The pot is 7.25 BB so 8.25:1 to you. Will he bluff at this > 12% of the time? From what it seems I doubt he would.

This makes my play here check/call maybe even check/fold.

[krimson]

You have a read here, so I think you should use it. I would just c/c this river. I think you're behind a lot of the time. b/f is probably better for value, but I'm concerned that he could raise AK here some of the time and make us fold a split, I don't want to fold. I don't like b/c'ing, because the chance of him having slow played AA or KK here seems pretty high, so it's slightly spew'ing.

I just want to get this to showdown for cheap, and we can confirm our read if he in fact has AA or KK, and we can adjust our read if he has AJ or something.

[adsman]

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could you clarify, Did he slow play to the turn or river usually as this changes my line.

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He slowplayed to the river. maybe I don't suck after all. I feel better. (this is where some highly respected poster comes along and says, no actually, you were right, you do suck.)

[krimson]

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could you clarify, Did he slow play to the turn or river usually as this changes my line.

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He slowplayed to the river. maybe I don't suck after all. I feel better. (this is where some highly respected poster comes along and says, no actually, you were right, you do suck.)

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Don't be so hard on yourself. We try to get reads on people for a reason. You had a read and acted on it. You took a line that allowed a showdown so we could gain further information. You saw your read wasn't accurate, and (assumingly) adjusted your view of the player for future hands.

I think you did everything correctly here.

[POKhER]

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could you clarify, Did he slow play to the turn or river usually as this changes my line.

[/ QUOTE ]

He slowplayed to the river. maybe I don't suck after all. I feel better. (this is where some highly respected poster comes along and says, no actually, you were right, you do suck.)

[/ QUOTE ]
Don't be so hard on yourself. We try to get reads on people for a reason. You had a read and acted on it. You took a line that allowed a showdown so we could gain further information. You saw your read wasn't accurate, and (assumingly) adjusted your view of the player for future hands.

I think you did everything correctly here.

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Me too.

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could you clarify, Did he slow play to the turn or river usually as this changes my line.

[/ QUOTE ]

He slowplayed to the river. maybe I don't suck after all. I feel better. (this is where some highly respected poster comes along and says, no actually, you were right, you do suck.)

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As I said in the previous post, he needs to have more hands that he calls with and you beat than he will raise with for this to be a profitable value bet. If he slowplays to the river then this will not be the case.

You are ahead of JJ, TT, AQ (I don't know how often you can count this in his hand range). You draw with AK. You lose to AA,KK,QQ.

There are a total of 5 hands that beat you, 4 hands you draw with. 15 hands you beat. (only counting 3 for AQ since I am undecided)

Of these hands, 5 will DEFINITELY raise the river. 10 may raise the river, 12 will not raise the river.

This way 5 that raise you beat you, 4 that raise you draw, 3 that raise you lose. 12 that don't raise lose and may not call.

I don't really know what to say from here, 5 times you call the raise you lose, 4 times you draw, 3 times you win.

20% bet / call lose. 16% bet/call draw. 12% bet/call win. 50% he calls and loses. This assumes he will call every time he has TT / JJ. IF he does then bet / calling is the most profitable line. This also assumes that he will raise AK and AQ on the river.

So from these ranges he wins 2BB 5 times, loses 2BB 3 times. loses 1BB 12 times. This means that he needs to call with JJ/TT >33% of the time for this to be a profitable play. If we remove AQ from the hand ranges, then he needs to call with JJ/TT 10/12 times that he has them. I believe he would raise AK 100% of the time so if your read on him is that he would call JJ/TT > 10/12 times then betting is correct.

I don't know the math for bet/folding. I am playing a couple of tables so maybe I haven't thought it through enough. I guess if the times he calls with JJ/TT goes down, the more likely bet/folding and check/calling becomes better.

The more likely he is to call bet/call > bet/fold > check/call

Then again the more he checks through with AK/AQ/JJ/TT make check/folding better than check/calling. This is something I would have to look at again.

Perhaps someone could work this out?

[jba]

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It's only a 100 hands. You're seeing monsters IMO. Bet/call the river.

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i think since the turn wasn't raised, bet-calling the river is good. If the turn was raised, check-call is fine, but i think we're giving up a lot checking and seeing it checked behind (when villain has JJ, TT).

I would bet this river and curse if i get river slowplayed. But the fact is we mustn't just assume stuff from 100 hands, he could have caught a wave of cards as cruddy as i saw ads catch yesterday which is why the raising has been sparse.

I think bet the river, villain calls and shows JJ, TT, or an uber passive AKo/AKs/AQs for the chop/win. I still like a call as villain may wait to the river to raise AK so bet folding makes me feel a little ill.

Goot debate. keep it coming.

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For bet/calling to be correct, he has to raise AK/AA/KK/QQ on the river and call with JJ/TT almost 100% of the time.

For a person who slowplays to the river with monsters, and that we don't know the play tendencies with JJ/TT I think that bet/calling is definitely wrong.

True