Another TT Hand

[J.R.]

When he 3-betted the flop, I narrowed he's likely holding to AA or AK. KK seemed to be slim because, being 'sensible' he would have just called my raise, maybe hoping to trap me on the turn.

How sensible would it be if he misses a check-raise when QJ, 97 or J9 checks behind on the turn? I think many players might foolishly attempt the trickiness you suggest, but the sensible play is to ram when you have the nuts and players playing back at you.

[Joe Tall]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
After a raise and three coldcallers, with the blinds possibly along, I think the odds are plenty fine to play TT here, especially since you will get the aggressive post-flop action you are looking for if you flop your set.

[/ QUOTE ]

We have a rock that has raised UTG. Surely you are WAY behind, and at 5:1 preflop to flop a set which is more than likely needed to win, I'd fold JJ and less here. I'm thinking that UTG has QQ+ so are you are saying you would play any pocket pair with the SAME situation and SAME action, here? What's the difference between TT and 33 in this spot?

If I was on the button and got 4 cold callers than, maybe. But I rearly cold call, either 3-bet or get out.

I'm interested in what others think about this debate, good reply btw and hopefully others will join the discussion.

Peace,
Joe

[J.R.]

Surely you are WAY behind

TT was ahead of the UTG rock raiser pre-flop.

What's the difference between TT and 33 in this spot?

TT can flop an overpair, 33 barely can. I agree they are not immensely different, but I have been making more speculative calls with pocket pairs in LP after a raise and many callers, knowing I have:

1) position on the UTG raiser,
2) a pot that will likely have many bets put into it post flop with people betting into me, and
3) many callers seeking to hit an overcard kicker and second pair that will be drawing dead against me when I flop my set.

I agree that this is close and don't reccomend calling raises from UTG rocks very often, but think three coldcallers and the possible addiiton of the blinds and the LP players yet to act makes this a call. Either way, I don't think its a huge mistake nor an obviously huge positive EV play.

[Joe Tall]

TT was ahead of the UTG rock raiser pre-flop.

Out of fairness, I have yet to read any results, but I will now.

OK, TT was ahead, barely:

pokenum -h as ks - tc th
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 786350 45.92 919710 53.71 6244 0.36 0.461
Tc Th 919710 53.71 786350 45.92 6244 0.36 0.539



Either way, I don't think its a huge mistake nor an obviously huge positive EV play.

I don't think it's a huge mistake, but it's still a mistake in my book, AKs, AQs are mostlikely the ONLY hands that UTG holds that you have an advantage on...and at 53.7% you are right, it's not even close to huge EV.

[J.R.]

You sim is meaningless. This hand was not played heads'up. Of course I would fold heads up. You are playing because of the 3 coldcallers and the promise of the blinds or LP players yet to act joining the party.

I only pointed out that TT was ahead because you said you surely could not be, not because that fact, in and of itself, justifies playing here. The EV comes when you flop a set and UTG and you go to war with some fools getting trapped in the middle drawing nearly dead, not from some irrelevant heads'up comparison between two hands when there are at least three other hands in this multiway pot.

[Joe Tall]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
You sim is meaningless. This hand was not played heads'up. Of course I would fold heads up. You are playing because of the 3 coldcallers and the promise of the blinds or LP players yet to act joining the party.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that it is 'meaningless and irrelevant' because it doesn't change the fact that TT is barely a favorite, and our poster was lucky enough to get shown 2 out of the possible 6 hands that rock-UTG would raise with (JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AQs, AKs) I just think this is a borderline call in this exact situation. Strange how no one wants to get involved with us...

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
The EV comes when you flop a set and UTG and you go to war with some fools getting trapped in the middle drawing nearly dead, not from some irrelevant heads'up comparison between two hands when there are at least three other hands in this multiway pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

As our poster got his set and perfect hand to play, and it payed off well. Now, I'm wondering if I should incorporate such play into my game and make a cold call in such a situation. I usually leave such a hand behind.

[J.R.]

Heads'up I think this is a clear fold. I am not trying to be a jerk, I hope I don't come across as such. What makes this playable, IMO, is the extra callers who not only give you better odds preflop, but who will get trapped post-flop for multiple bets when you flop a set in situations when they are drawing thin or dead. That renders the UTG raiser's hand somewhat irrelevant. I'd almost prefer that UTG have a big pair so they can overplay their hand against me when I flop a set and improve my already good implied odds.

Think of why HPFAP reccomends raising on the button in multiway pots with small pairs and suited connectors and why Sklansky reccomends raising ATs from the button in the same situation. One of the reasons is that you build a big pot, and when you flop big, your opponents will make loose calls because of the pot size, such as trying to hit their overcard kicker. But in this instance, you will only continue with a set, so your opponents will be 1) more inclined to make loose calls post-flop, thereby improving your implied odds while 2)drawing pretty much dead when calling with one pair.

That's where I see the profit comming from. You have a UTG pre-flop raiser, so there will be aggressive post-flop action when you play pairs for set value. Yes you will be sucked out on more becuase of the pot size, but I think this can be a profitable situation.

[tj00]

Well here are my two cents and they are probably not worth even that. If this is a +EV situation it is close. I generally try to avoid situations like this and would have folded pre-flop to the tight raiser. Against weak players why wait for better spots to get your money in.

[Joe Tall]

I am not trying to be a jerk,

Please, this forum was built for a discussion like this, I love the debate.

I have made such a play out of the blinds with pairs in a family-cold-called pot but I still think this situation is borderline, which makes for great debate.

Now, answer me this would you play 22-44 in this situation, how about 55-77?

[slavic]

How od you put the cold caller on those hands? I think you are just seeing ghosts of hands that beat you.