really? - Page 2

27offsooot · #11 12-11-2005, 06:18 PM

You have an overpair vs. a LAGGY opponent on a semi-dangerous board who has shown a lot of aggression. Plus you have outs. How is this not a routine call down UI? I know u've been struggling and u're questioning a lot, but i can't imagine three betting or folding here. The only play is to call down.

Spicymoose · #12 12-11-2005, 06:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
TT/JJ are not out of the question

neither is 55/88

[/ QUOTE ]

Guess I missed those. TT and JJ are much less likely because of preflop however. So instead of 12 total combos, I would say that all of these hands together add up to 10 combos.

My initial math analysis was off because I didn't include the possibility of QhJh or KhJh. So we have somewhere around 14 combos of hands that are beating us at the river, and 2 that we beat. If you add 99 into the mix with any probability, that makes it even more. I still think we can call the river UI.

jba · #13 12-11-2005, 06:20 PM

spicy,

I agree with you, just nitpicking on a pure hand reading basis. i think your 10/12 discount is probably pretty close.

Spicymoose · #14 12-11-2005, 06:22 PM

Thanks for the nitpick. I think I am capable of reading hands, I just get to lazy, and don't put enough effort into it. I really need to start to change this.

27offsooot · #15 12-11-2005, 06:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
TT/JJ are not out of the question

neither is 55/88

[/ QUOTE ]

Guess I missed those. TT and JJ are much less likely because of preflop however. So instead of 12 total combos, I would say that all of these hands together add up to 10 combos.

My initial math analysis was off because I didn't include the possibility of QhJh or KhJh. So we have somewhere around 14 combos of hands that are beating us at the river, and 2 that we beat. If you add 99 into the mix with any probability, that makes it even more. I still think we can call the river UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sets seem less likely also b/c some % of the time (a large in my opinion), players like this don't raise the flop with sets with two people behind them. Your hand analysis is fine. But u can also throw in A9h, AJh, and random crap hands. He is v. aggressive, although over a small sample, so I think u have to add in the idiot factor.

Edit- u're not good 50% of the time, but u're ahead at least 10%, so call.

PokerBob · #16 12-11-2005, 07:05 PM

villain here is 50/14/3 over only 75 hands. I have seen none of his SD's. Am I this unlucky? What's your play here?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls, Hero raises, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls, MP calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets, Button raises, BB calls, MP folds, Hero 3-bets, Button calls, BB calls.

Turn: (8.66 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, BB folds, Hero calls.

River (2 players) (10.66BB): T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero.....

MrWookie47 · #17 12-11-2005, 07:06 PM

not the pair of the board you wanted to see, but I think I c/c.

Spicymoose · #18 12-11-2005, 07:08 PM

I don't see how that T changed anything we were saying earlier about calling the river. A jack, on the other hand, would make things tricky.

POKhER · #19 12-11-2005, 07:17 PM

Well as he's aggressive there was slight chance he had ATo... so now we're fecked.

However raising turn with AT after a jack hits is DAM AGGRESSIVE but the same size is to small to pin down a precise AF so 3 is probably due to sample size.

I'd say we can C/C still.

PokerBob · #20 12-11-2005, 08:23 PM

villain here is 50/14/3 over only 75 hands. I have seen none of his SD's. Am I this unlucky? What's your play here?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls, Hero raises, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls, MP calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets, Button raises, BB calls, MP folds, Hero 3-bets, Button calls, BB calls.

Turn: (8.66 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, BB folds, Hero calls.

River (2 players) (10.66BB): T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero..checks, he bets, i call. I HATED that river card, but is he playing a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] draw with the J this way? I dunno. Well, I convinced myslef that he does. He shows JTo. I'm not sure about the river call. Is it a huge error given the pot size?