Races - sometimes it's not a coinflip

You want 6 outs out of 48 cards (12.5%) ( you discount your cards and Vilain cards).

Thinking the way you do, you have 4 outs, but the other players have 2 * 7 cards so you have 4 outs out of 34 cards (.118%). If One of them has a PP, you have 5/34 = 14.7%.

I hope this is clear for you. You are seeing Ghosts!!!

[ansky451]

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I think you can safely say that you're in better shape with AK if the people in early position have all folded rather than limped in this scenario. But to say that the rest of the people at the table hold more or less than 2 aces/kings sounds foolish since most people will fold weak aces and kings 100% of the time from EP.

Maybe I'll try doing some empirical work. Count the numbers of folders/limpers before someone opens. And then see if A/K hits the board. Could be interesting to see if there's some sort of correlation.

Anyone know of something that can capture hand histories automatically on Pokerroom?

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You will need a substantial sample size for this to work.

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I think you can safely say that you're in better shape with AK if the people in early position have all folded rather than limped in this scenario. But to say that the rest of the people at the table hold more or less than 2 aces/kings sounds foolish since most people will fold weak aces and kings 100% of the time from EP.

Maybe I'll try doing some empirical work. Count the numbers of folders/limpers before someone opens. And then see if A/K hits the board. Could be interesting to see if there's some sort of correlation.

Anyone know of something that can capture hand histories automatically on Pokerroom?

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You will need a substantial sample size for this to work.

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Somewhere on the order of 100k hands, maybe "only" 50k in which this exact scenario happens'd work.

It's much easier to just write a computer program that simulates this scenario, fixing your hand and your opponent's hand and keeping the other players at the table random. Give them different limping/raising/folding standards (a raise should just make the program throw out that set of data, as it completely changes everything) and see how your odds change.

Someone actually did just that with a similar problem known as the bunching effect and managed to show that it was real but completely insignificant. I don't remember who it was, but it was a card player article, so you could look through card player's archives (cardplayer.com) to see.

Please let this thread die now.

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Somewhere on the order of 100k hands, maybe "only" 50k in which this exact scenario happens'd work.

It's much easier to just write a computer program that simulates this scenario, fixing your hand and your opponent's hand and keeping the other players at the table random. Give them different limping/raising/folding standards (a raise should just make the program throw out that set of data, as it completely changes everything) and see how your odds change.

Someone actually did just that with a similar problem known as the bunching effect and managed to show that it was real but completely insignificant. I don't remember who it was, but it was a card player article, so you could look through card player's archives (cardplayer.com) to see.

Please let this thread die now.

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100K hands is way to much for something like this. When I took a statistics class, I remember being surprised at how small sample sizes you needed before you could deduct stuff. And if you're interested in finding out if an A/K drops based on the ratio of folders/limpers before the pot is raised, there isn't much variance. So the numbers should converge pretty quickly.

I did the analysis on a tourney I had lying around. There seems to be a rather large correlation. When an A/K drops on the flop there was a lower limper/folder ratio. But you seem to think I'm a crackpot, so I'll go away now [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Matusow called in raise situation with a pp because he (correctly) thought both of his opponents held aces limiting their outs. Is this the hand you're thinking of.