Re: AK unimproved post h/u vs. CS?
Haha found it finally. This is all theoretical, but an interesting read perhaps.
[H]ere are some fun facts courtesy of pokerstove regarding situations such as these. Again, we're assuming that we're heads up with a villain who could have any two, and the rake is not a factor.
<ul type="square">[*]It's fairly rare that you can value bet with A high on a singly paired board. The pair needs to be T, J, Q or K, and your kicker must be Q or K. There may be some exceptions to this, but I'm fairly confident that 9's or lower on board drops you below 50%. Any flush or straight draw possibility often drops us below the 50% mark as well, costing us about 3%.[*]You can valuebet with A high whenever the board is double-paired, even if there's three to a flush and 3 to a straight on the board (4 to a flush is impossible). Your kicker here is of course virtually meaningless, coming into play only when it interferes with straight or flush possiblities. The lowest equity I can find here is 53% if you hold A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on a 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] board.[*]Surprisingly, you can't always value bet Ace high if there's trips on the board, although you almost always can. For example, you are a very slight dog if you hold A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on a 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] board. If there are no flush or straight possibilities, your pot equity ranges from 54% to 63% depending on your kicker.[*]Want to value bet with King high? If there are made aces up on the board, then you can always do so. If not, it gets more complicated. I can't figure out a specific pattern, but it does look like you can always bet for value if the fifth card is lower than both board cards. For example, if you hold K2o you have 45% equity on a 55668 board, but 55% equity on a 55663 board (which has the same straight possibilities). If there are trips on the board, bet for value if there is any ace on the board (and not a boat). For example, if you have K2o, bet if the board is 3334A, even if there's a 3 flush. Also bet if there are trip aces: you're a huge favorite there. I can't find any scenarios where you're a favorite if there's trips on board and no Ace.[*]Queen high, you say? Again, that's more difficult. First of all, I can't find any double-pair board where you're ahead more than 50% of the time apart from AAKKx (where you're a 3 to 1 fave). If there are trip Aces or trip Kings (doesn't matter which), whether or not you can bet depends on your kicker; the break-even point seems to be 50.1% for QTo if there's no J. Don't bet for value if there's a 3-flush.[*]Jack high can never be value-bet unless the board has AAKK, AAQQ or KKQQ.[/list]
And that's all I can find. Hopefully good information, since LAGs who play any two cards on double paired boards is such a common occurence [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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