extracting value from strong draws

[c_strong]

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I think the definition of a draw is you don't have a hand, but you hope to get one. Your draw may be strong or weak depending on the number of outs.

In the example you give I see a made str8 on the flop with a flush draw. So you want to draw to the second nut str8?


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How often am I up against specifically T9 here?

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You're also on a second nut flush draw.

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How often am I up against A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]x [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] as against some other flush draw?

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What else? Oh yes, you're facing a pot-sized bet.

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True, but won't I be ahead of most hands that make a pot-sized bet if I hit? Are you suggesting I fold?

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What else? Oh yes, two players left to act behind you.

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Fair enough...

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What else? Oh yes, you think if you make an OOP raise in the BB that when you check the turn everyone behind you will check because your powerful flop raise scared them into giving you a free card.

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No, I think I will fold out pf limpers and buy the button. And yes, I think the SB may well check the turn.

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What else? Oh yes, should you just call and "try to milk it"? That's a new thought. IF you hit anything your second nut hand will be milking something?

Jeeeezzzz!

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That wasn't expressed very well. What I meant was to allow more callers into the pot with say middle or bottom pair or overcards (hopefully not J9) who may call down if I hit my straight or flush by the river, which I'm a favourite to do.

[c_strong]

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Thanks for the replies. I raised to $5 and everyone folded. I've been kicking myself, but I guess a lot of the time this play works OK, and I can't be too upset at winning the pot given that I had K high and only one nut out [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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this is the best possible outcome. the highest EV scenario is where everyone folds.

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I assume you mean for this particular situation? Surely that can't always be right as a matter of principle? If everyone folds you can only win the existing pot, but other plays may make more money overall even taking account of the times you lose. I agree you have 0 chance of losing if everyone folds, but that isn't what I understand by EV.

[swolfe]

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I assume you mean for this particular situation? Surely that can't always be right as a matter of principle? If everyone folds you can only win the existing pot, but other plays may make more money overall even taking account of the times you lose. I agree you have 0 chance of losing if everyone folds, but that isn't what I understand by EV.

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pot is $1.50, facing a $1.5 bet. you raise all fold, you net +$3

if you raise to $5 and SB calls, the pot is $11.50. let's say your equity is 50%, then your equity is $5.75 and your expectation is to net out +$.75. this doesn't include any other money that you may have to put in on later streets.

when you raise with a coin flip, you pretty much always want people to fold.

[DoomSlice]

It is my opinion that most of the value from strong draws comes from fold equity. Pump that flop.

[Leptyne]

You are correct that you will hit one of your draws 60% of the time. I guess I'm giving the $50 NL players more credit than they deserve. I make this same play at $50 and also at $100 NL, although I try to use it more selectively at $100.

Good players (of which there ar few at this level) see this as a semi-bluff, a raise to isolate the SB, and thus get a free card. If I'm in the SB I'm on a draw with AsJs and will semi-bluff re-raise.

I think we're pretty much in agreement except for the phrase of "milking". If I'm playing this hand slowly I'm looking for somebody's stack. I'm looking for you to hit a str8 when I hit the flush. In this game I might consider that I have the best hand if I catch a random K. It's always nice to win an uncontested pot of any amount.

[bkholdem]

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You are correct that you will hit one of your draws 60% of the time. I guess I'm giving the $50 NL players more credit than they deserve. I make this same play at $50 and also at $100 NL, although I try to use it more selectively at $100.

Good players (of which there ar few at this level) see this as a semi-bluff, a raise to isolate the SB, and thus get a free card. If I'm in the SB I'm on a draw with AsJs and will semi-bluff re-raise.

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Then I guess you don't think a set is possible, or 2 pair, for example. Why would those hands just flat call the sb's flop bet? If you were small blind i think that you put hero on too narrow a range of hands by putting him on a draw only.

[Leptyne]

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You are correct that you will hit one of your draws 60% of the time. I guess I'm giving the $50 NL players more credit than they deserve. I make this same play at $50 and also at $100 NL, although I try to use it more selectively at $100.

Good players (of which there ar few at this level) see this as a semi-bluff, a raise to isolate the SB, and thus get a free card. If I'm in the SB I'm on a draw with AsJs and will semi-bluff re-raise.

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Then I guess you don't think a set is possible, or 2 pair, for example. Why would those hands just flat call the sb's flop bet? If you were small blind i think that you put hero on too narrow a range of hands by putting him on a draw only.

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Actually I'm not sure what I would do in the SB. My first reaction would be that the player is representing a hand not a draw. Then I'd probably overanalyze it and see a semi-bluff raise to isolate. Since I rarely encounter this kind of sophisticated play at $50 NL I have to fight the tendency to see things that aren't there.

However I did lead the flop from the SB into a made str8 with 3 players left to act. Perhaps I do have something and am looking for a raise. When I lead the flop I'm prepared to play poker.

[Moozh]

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At small stakes, where no one is laying down TPTK, I don't think you have much fold equity here. I call hoping to get callers behind and hit my draw cheap.

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I don't get it. Do you guys realize he has an open-ended straight flush draw with at least one clean overcard?

You are a huge favorite over a pair here.

A few hand comparisons:

K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] vs A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 68% to win
K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] vs J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 62% to win
K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] vs A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 55% to win
K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] vs 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 54% to win
K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] vs 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 50% to win
K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] vs T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 40% to win

What about multiway?
vs JJ and AA 55% to win
vs AA and 87 49% to win
vs JJ and T9 40% to win!

That's a huge overlay. Stop thinking about who would win on the flop, it's a 7 card game. Raise it up sure, but do it for value.

[Moozh]

There is a lot of wrong thinking in this thread.

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At small stakes, where no one is laying down TPTK, I don't think you have much fold equity here. I call hoping to get callers behind and hit my draw cheap.

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No, you want someone to call you here. If they folded, you would lose expected value. You have the better hand.

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this is the best possible outcome. the highest EV scenario is where everyone folds.

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No! You have a huge equity edge over every hand but a made straight, a set, or the nut flush draw! You're even a favorite over top two-pair right now. The more money you get in the pot here, the more money you make. You stand to win a vast majority of the time here with this hand.

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First of all, it's not miliking if you do not have the best hand. All your on is a draw.

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This draw is so strong, it's better than any made hand but a made straight, set, or nut flush draw. So what if he only had king high right now? His hand is the favorite to win the most money. Play it that way.

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Maybe I suck but I like putting in a nice raise on the flop. Taking it down there is fine with me.

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No! You don't want to take it down. You want callers. If your hand is favored to win, then you make money when people put chips in the pot with a worse hand. Your hand is favored to win so you want people to call.

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It is my opinion that most of the value from strong draws comes from fold equity.

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If your draw is heads up and less than 50% to come in then you need folding equity to make it profitable. If your draw makes you a likely statistical favorite to win the hand then you don't want them to fold.


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Ok, enough bitching from me. There was good analysis here too. FreakDaddy's post was very solid imho. You don't want to end up against a set or the nut flush draw. Still, your hand is so strong and so well disguised on the flop, it would kill me to play scared here.

[FreakDaddy]

Answer: No, they don't get it. I've explained this concept several times on here though (along with others).