Haven't posted a hand in a while. Critique?

[M.B.E.]

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Say I check, and he pushes. Do I call?

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Yes, absolutely. You could well be a favourite with 14 outs, perhaps even 16. Otherwise you're likely just a small underdog: e.g. A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is just a 53:47 favourite over your hand and even if he has AJ for top two pair, he's only a 58:42 favourite. You're only really in trouble if he happened to flop a set or a flush, and even then you have outs.

[M.B.E.]

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Suppose your opponent has pocket nines, either with or without a heart. If you think he will fold when you bet, but bet when you check, then checking works better for you.

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that's a pretty big if. i would check behind 99 there with no heart and probably bet-call with a heart.

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Okay, suppose Hero has K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and Villain has 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Flop comes A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] at which point Hero is a 61:39 favourite. Hero checks and Villain checks behind. Now turn is a black deuce which reverses the situation: Villain is now a 61:39 favourite if the cards are turned face-up at that point. However, Hero can still bet the turn and there's no way Villain will call. Thus Hero hasn't given up anything by checking the flop.

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i like an open-push, personally. it gets you out the ugly situation of having to play a blank turn, either with 4k effective stacks left or 2k.

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I can see that an open-push might make sense for Hero if Villain is expected to fold some aces (e.g. A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]). Put yourself in Villain's situation with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]; would you call or fold to an open-push on that flop? It's not an easy question for Villain and certainly some players in that situation would fold the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], but my feeling is that in an online tournament, on these stack sizes, the majority of players in Villain's seat with any ace would call Hero's open-push. I'm not sure; do you agree with that statement? I think if I'm correct that most opponents are going to call with any ace (but fold medium pocket pairs), then checking the flop is a better play for Hero than open-pushing.

Just kind of thinking out loud here, I'm open to persuasion that I'm wrong on this one.

[M.B.E.]

Okay you're right: open-pushing the flop is better than checking.

There's 2625 in the pot and Villain has only 4142 behind. Thus Hero would rather knock Villain out of the pot than get Villain's chips in the pot, unless Hero is a 62:38 favourite or better. But even if Villain has black 99, Hero is just a 61:39 favourite.