Pushing Jacks Preflop

[beset7]

you've sold me.

[Mercman572]

I like it, UTG has garbage and you're likely the better end of a coinflip to CO at least.

[Mercman572]

[ QUOTE ]
(And if either held QQ, they might lay it down to my push)


[/ QUOTE ]

Agree with everything except this, if they've botched QQ this badly so far they aren't likely to fold it to a push (unless shorty has been pushing frequently and CO is sophisticated enough to ralize he'll reopen the betting, but you've said nothing to indicate this and it's a rare player that would do this).

[amoeba]

I like seeing a flop here.

with AK I push.

[Mercman572]

[ QUOTE ]
I like seeing a flop here.

with AK I push.

[/ QUOTE ]

BC of set possibilities with JJ?

[amoeba]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like seeing a flop here.

with AK I push.

[/ QUOTE ]

BC of set possibilities with JJ?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah.

and the fact that AK needs to see all 5 cards.

also often I pull the smoothcall of an shortstack all in after a preflopraise with a monster hoping for an isolation reraise.

[DoomSlice]

Let's do a little bit of math!

Disclaimer: making these numbers up as I go, but I think they'll be close.

For simplicity I'll say if you call you'll have exactly $100 left and everyone else has you covered.

Let's say that you'll hit your set and stack someone off exactly 10% of the time (this might be a bit high). You'll win the $30 in the pot and $100 more, for an expectation of around $13. Now about 25% of the time you'll win the pot when no one hits anything and you win unimproved (you need to dodge the flop for 2 people and the turn/river for the AI guy). So you'll win $30 25% of the time for $7.5. Add that to the original $13, and calling now has an expectation of around $25.

As for moving all in, you're probably a 70/30 favorite over his range of hands, so you'll win $21 and lose about $2.25 (the additional 7.5 at stack x .3). For a total expectation of around $19.

So with this crude math, it looks like calling would be better.

HOWEVER. If you change the numbers slightly (the 10% chance of hitting set and stacking one of the two and the chance of winning unimproved) it becomes much more close and possibly even better to push.

[ajmargarine]

Doesn't 13 + 7.50 = 20.50?

Plus, you need to factor in the times my all-in is called, maybe 10-15% of the time?? And put me as a 60-40 favorite for the sidepot (and that's maybe a conservative estimate. 57-43 agst overs. 80-20 agst smaller pp's)

[DoomSlice]

Like I said, all of my numbers are made up (although that math error is inexcusable). My personal choice would be to push, not only because I think my number for stacking one of the two guys is too high, but also because I would want to avoid making a costly mistake on a one-overcard board where I might be tempted to continue with the hand.

[DJ Sensei]

[ QUOTE ]
I like it, UTG has garbage and you're likely the better end of a coinflip to CO at least.

[/ QUOTE ]

A thought (which may or may not affect decision making for OP): Suppose UTG has AA or KK and is planning a limp-reraise.
After OP's raise, a call by CO, then a push for 3x more, does UTG:

-reraise again (likely shutting out anybody else in the hand and taking down a medium pot with great equity, or a big pot if OP or CO makes a bad call with a worse hand like JJ)
-or does he just call, hoping that OP will re-push, and he can possibly take down a very big pot, either allin preflop against 2 worse hands, or after the flop if it comes down rags (and will likely still win the medium pot if OP doesnt reraise, although might lose a big pot if somebody makes a set)

Obviously, the latter route would require UTG to be a rather thinking player, and have a read that OP was aggressive enough to re-push with hands like JJ/QQ/AK.

Not intending to hijack the thread, but just a thought... If I happen upon such a situation as UTG in my tables, I might just take the latter route and see how it pans out.