I just don't think he has an ace ... how to play it?

[ QUOTE ]
He doesn't have a K unless it's something really mysterious. You are right that he almost definitely doesn't have an A. That leaves a 6 with almost definitely a worse kicker or a pair. Or I guess he could have 45 which is basically the only draw. Bet the river.
-James

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I agree with betting the river. Since I have a crappy image and the diamonds missed, why not check to induce a bluff?

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He doesn't have a K unless it's something really mysterious. You are right that he almost definitely doesn't have an A. That leaves a 6 with almost definitely a worse kicker or a pair. Or I guess he could have 45 which is basically the only draw. Bet the river.
-James

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I agree with betting the river. Since I have a crappy image and the diamonds missed, why not check to induce a bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]

its BECAUSE of your crappy image that you should bet. he will check behind marginal hands (lower pairs/high cards) that will likely call if you bet putting you on a draw

by checking you give up value given your image and the action.

Barron

Possibly. I will think about this.

I was actually going to CR the river on this hand.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Possibly. I will think about this.

I was actually going to CR the river on this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is silly gerry.

think about it. what does that accomplish?

given your image you might get called by high cards or low pair if you bet, but if you check behind and he bets the range of his hands narrows greatly and is very likely better than yours. if you now raise you have to fold to a 3 bet and are definately beaten when called.

Barron

[James282]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He doesn't have a K unless it's something really mysterious. You are right that he almost definitely doesn't have an A. That leaves a 6 with almost definitely a worse kicker or a pair. Or I guess he could have 45 which is basically the only draw. Bet the river.
-James

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I agree with betting the river. Since I have a crappy image and the diamonds missed, why not check to induce a bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't have any image, he just posted in the CO.
-James

I know it's silly. I wasn't playing well, and I posted this hand to confirm it somewhat. Much of my thinking was wrong here I think. Sometimes you just don't have the mojo I guess.

[Brian R]

For what it is worth, I like how you played the hand. I might have check raised the flop. The fear however is getting raised on the turn not knowing where you are except likley beat. With this tight of a player who is prob incapable of making these plays, you might then have to c/r the flop and fold to a raise on the turn. The river is a borderline value bet. Without him seeing your previous bluffs I'd play it as you did otherwise push your small edge.

Brian R.

[elindauer]

There's no need to worry about your image when your opponent just posted.

Your plan of checking to induce a bluff is ok, but you probably won't save any money if he does have an ace. Personally, I like betting since he didn't raise preflop the way so many people would with an ace, and there are lots of weaker hands that might call but not bet.

I just don't find that "inducing bluffs" works often enough to make up the value bets missed. This line where the agressor the whole hand sudenly checks the river is just a mediocre hand trying to get to showdown so often that many people don't bluff that spot. After watching people check down hopeless hands, and call with hopeless hands, I've stopped inducing bluffs and just value bet everything out of position.

-Eric

[elindauer]

Hi Josh,

I like a bet too, but think that folding a 7 is not a very good reason to bet. Few players fold pairs on the river heads up, especially when they just caught. It's just too tough to improve your hand on the river only to fold for 1 more bet.

It will be rare that he actually caught a 7, and rarer still that, having done so, he will fold. Perhaps these folds add some tiny fraction to your EV, but it's negligible. You bet hoping to be called by a weaker hand, not really to fold a better one.

-Eric

[Josh W]

Obviously the chance of him hitting a 7 is remote.

And, I concur that people don't yearn to fold pairs heads up on the river. But the random 15-30 opponent is somewhat more likely to do this than the random 100-200 opponent.

I guess my overall point is that:

1.) Bet, they may fold
and
2.) Bet, they may call

both have merits.

Josh