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#11
11-25-2005, 12:42 PM
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Re: Bad bluff?
[ QUOTE ]
The turn was not a complete brick [/ QUOTE ] I meant it was a brick from the opponent's persepctive. Sure, he might also have just made a flush draw, but the odds are really against it. Almost every time Hero checks this turn, the opponent will check behind. 
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#12
11-25-2005, 12:44 PM
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Re: Bad bluff?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The turn was not a complete brick [/ QUOTE ] I meant it was a brick from the opponent's persepctive. Sure, he might also have just made a flush draw, but the odds are really against it. Almost every time Hero checks this turn, the opponent will check behind. [/ QUOTE ] Hero did check the turn and villain bet [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] That's why I like the check/raise better than the call here.
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#13
11-25-2005, 12:51 PM
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Re: Bad bluff?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The turn was not a complete brick [/ QUOTE ] I meant it was a brick from the opponent's persepctive. Sure, he might also have just made a flush draw, but the odds are really against it. Almost every time Hero checks this turn, the opponent will check behind. [/ QUOTE ] Hero did check the turn and villain bet [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] That's why I like the check/raise better than the call here. [/ QUOTE ] I'm saying that Hero going for a check-raise here will usually fail. It wouldn't have in this specific case, but to say that the best play here is to go for a checkk-raise is to be results-oriented. Suppose hero posted this instead: Preflop: Hero is SB with A, J. 1 fold, MP raises to $3, Button calls $3, Hero calls $2.50, BB calls $2. Flop: ($12) 5, K, 5 (4 players) Hero checks, BB checks, MP checks, Button checks. Turn: ($12) 2 (4 players) Hero ... ? Would you still recommend check-raise? We have no reason to believe that the opponent will bet here if we check. If we are going to run a bluff, we should bet ourselves instead. If we check here, the opponent will usually check behind.
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#14
11-25-2005, 12:59 PM
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Re: Bad bluff?
I see your point. I agree that in general, the c/r is destined to fail, but in this case I felt it was the best (even if it is likely to be unsucessful) chance for hero to take down the pot.
Don't you have to be results-oriented to a certain degree to evaluate each situation since there are no one-size-fits-all rules. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#17
11-25-2005, 11:49 PM
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Re: Bad bluff?
[ QUOTE ]
MP's stack size makes this a really bad preflop call. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not that interested in MP - only in villain. I get 3:1 on my call - is it that bad? I know I'm OOP, but villains range is quite broad. Villains HR is also quite big IMO. I usually C/F the flop if I don't hit hard, but I felt like making a move, because I felt that villain was a thinking opponent who would fold a small PP. Villain insta-folded my river bet, and I took down the pot. But it seems like the general consensus is it's -EV.
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#18
11-25-2005, 11:55 PM
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Re: Bad bluff?
Trying to bluff into 3 people multiway on a dry river card... one of which is short stacked isn't a great idea. HU I'll pop it here if I think the opponent will lay down.
Otherwise you got lucky they all folded.
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#19
11-26-2005, 12:09 AM
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Re: Bad bluff?
[ QUOTE ]
Trying to bluff into 3 people multiway on a dry river card... one of which is short stacked isn't a great idea. HU I'll pop it here if I think the opponent will lay down. [/ QUOTE ] We were HU at the river - I called the turn thinking I had immlied odds to chase my flush/maybe overcard/pure bluff if I got (a) call(s), and could take the pot if I was HU against villain. I might've been lucky - it seems like people don't like the move, so I guess it's not one to incorporate ATM [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]
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