Value - NFL vs. NBA

[Mr_J]

"The house seems to have a much bigger edge in NFL games."

Their take on the overall action on either sport is 4.5% at most books (excluding low vig days). Of course this doesn't mean their edge actually is 4.5%, it would only be if they had set the perfect line, or had balanced the action, which kinda brings me to my next point.

Yes bookies will often aim for an even greater edge, by offering even poorer value on one side. This side is usually the side that squares bet on. So while in theory you should only lose at a rate of 4.5% if you're a square, you will probally lose at an even worse rate for betting into shaded sides.

HOWEVER, this is related to your next question:

"I guess the house gets alot of action on NFL games and that's why they push for a bigger edge with those games. Is this traditionally what the house does?"

The house is not going to take as strong a position (if any at all) on a game with a significant amount of action (for the bookie), because there is significantly larger risk. This might be moot, since a book might be so large that it can afford to take a strong position, but it's more likely that they can afford to take a position on an nba game than an nfl game since nfl attracts more action.

Back to this:

"Anyway, my first initial reaction is there is alot more value in NBA picks vs. NFL picks. The house seems to have a much bigger edge in NFL games."

So your conclusion is that the nba is a better sport to bet on because the house edge is smaller? Only if your squarer at nfl. The house edge for a coinflipper is the same for both sports.

[craig r]

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You mean "parity," and parity is not the reason the NFL is hard to beat.

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Correct, the more a game is followed the harder it is to beat since the line will generally be accurate.

The best games to bet are the small conference college games that you have knowledge on.

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I would disagree on the "small" conference games. I think before the Internet this was true, but now that there is so muc information out there, the lines are probably sharper than before. I remember having this conversation with WildBill (posts at TheRX now, but used to post a lot here).

craig