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#11
11-22-2005, 01:57 AM
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Re: Going overboard with implied odds?
Completely off topic, but I feel (and have always felt) that people here in general SIGNIFICANTLY underestimate the skill level of their opponents.
Not saying this applies here, I'm sure you'd know best. 
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#12
11-22-2005, 02:09 AM
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Re: Going overboard with implied odds?
YOU HAVE POSTION.
Since you called the bet, if he doesnt have the ace he probably will ck to you on the river, its you choice to pump it, or if hiss bet is suspect to re-raise him
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#13
11-22-2005, 02:10 AM
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Re: Going overboard with implied odds?
[ QUOTE ]
Completely off topic, but I feel (and have always felt) that people here in general SIGNIFICANTLY underestimate the skill level of their opponents. Not saying this applies here, I'm sure you'd know best. [/ QUOTE ] I agree with you 100%. We DO underestimate villians way too much around here. After thinking about this hand some more, there is one significant detail I left out. Previously in this session, I misread villian. I called a flop and turn bet with an OESD. The bets were not that large in relation to the pot and I had good odds to call. He checked to me on the river and all I had was 8 high after missing my straight. My read was that he had no pair, and so I threw out a PSB on the river. Turned out he had TPTK and called and scooped. Because of catching me in that bluff, I think he would call a significant bet by me on the river if I boat up and he has the Ac.
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#14
11-22-2005, 02:11 AM
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Re: Going overboard with implied odds?
Well... he's got a bit over $80 behind after you call $7.50... you're getting a touch over 10-1 IF you can stack him with a full on the river.
10 outs to the Full/Quads makes you a 4.6-1 dog so IF you can fully stack him, mathematically you're going to profit from the call. Of course, is he the kind of player who's going to get it all in with the A or Kx if you raise/push a pair'd river? At this level.... maybe. Most likely only if he has the A though.... you'd sure think he'd wonder wtf else you're smashing into him with... the K like a donkey? Good thing they probably won't consider it too much.
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#15
11-22-2005, 02:15 AM
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Re: Going overboard with implied odds?
Raising the turn is truly not worth it unless you are sadly vs weak Clubs who may lay it down. Raising is just overplaying a hand in a spot where you're knowingly way behind.
It'd be just as retarded as *calling* in with the hand.
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#17
11-22-2005, 02:22 AM
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Re: Going overboard with implied odds?
[ QUOTE ]
10 outs to the Full/Quads makes you a 4.6-1 dog so IF you can fully stack him [/ QUOTE ] way off i think.
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#18
11-22-2005, 02:24 AM
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Re: Going overboard with implied odds?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 10 outs to the Full/Quads makes you a 4.6-1 dog so IF you can fully stack him [/ QUOTE ] way off i think. [/ QUOTE ] Is it? You have 10 cards to hit and there are 2 cards in your hand and 4 on the board you can DQ 6-52 = 46/10 = 4.6 Or is this not the way to calculate this? I ask this humbly, I'd like to know if this isn't the right calculation.
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#19
11-22-2005, 10:29 AM
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Re: Going overboard with implied odds?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] 10 outs to the Full/Quads makes you a 4.6-1 dog so IF you can fully stack him [/ QUOTE ] way off i think. [/ QUOTE ] Is it? You have 10 cards to hit and there are 2 cards in your hand and 4 on the board you can DQ 6-52 = 46/10 = 4.6 Or is this not the way to calculate this? I ask this humbly, I'd like to know if this isn't the right calculation. [/ QUOTE ] I'm sure I'll be one of many . . . you're almost right, but you need to subtract the ten from the 46 - i.e. there are 46 cards unaccounted for, of which 10 help, so 36 don't help, so you are 36:10 against improving = 3.6:1
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#20
11-22-2005, 10:43 AM
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Re: Going overboard with implied odds?
If villain is an idiot who will pay you off then I like the call, however most average villains at this level won't call off their entire stack when a four flush board pairs.
There are approx. 80bb behind and you are ~4 to 1 against so you have to average $30 out of villain every time you hit to make this profitable. In my simple mind, that means you have to stack villain a little better than 1 in 3 times to make this call minimally profitable. If my math is right, you need about 12 to 1 to call the bet, which is close to where you are here. Looks EV neutral to me so I probably fold and look for an opportunity where I have a larger advantage (but I am weak tight).
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