Good draw, smallish pot...

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Yeah I guess the implied odds make it a pretty safe call.

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Hi brockton with 12 outs the immediate odds make it a pretty safe call.

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Ok - kinda a newbie [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] question, but 12 outs is 25% with 1 coming and its 2 bets for 6 or 33%. Given the very likely potential that we lose UI, why is it an easy call? I can see it if it is 1 bet called.

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First, I think he has a maximum of 16 outs here, but it could be significantly fewer than that.

Second, he's going to get one more bet from BB.

Third, implied odds when he hits.

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Sorry, this donk missed the Q for 4 more outs. Math works, call away!!

[Marquis]

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Ok - kinda a newbie question, but 12 outs is 25% with 1 coming and its 2 bets for 6 or 33%. Given the very likely potential that we lose UI, why is it an easy call? I can see it if it is 1 bet called.

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You answered your own question. 25% = 3 to 1 represented as odds. 2 bets for 6 is exactly 3 to 1. Most of the time the turn wont be 3 bet so really it's 2 bets to win 7 plus the bets you win when you hit.

[Marquis]

12 outs was about right, guys. 9 cards make a flush and the 3 remaining Qs make a straight. The 3 kings are worthless to you, the turn raiser can beat a pair of kings and you're going to check fold a K anyway.

You might discount the 12 outs to 11or 11.5 because if the flush comes but it pairs the board, it might make somebody a house. 11 is still enough to call, though.

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12 outs was about right, guys. 9 cards make a flush and the 3 remaining Qs make a straight. The 3 kings are worthless to you, the turn raiser can beat a pair of kings and you're going to check fold a K anyway.

You might discount the 12 outs to 11or 11.5 because if the flush comes but it pairs the board, it might make somebody a house. 11 is still enough to call, though.

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I follow your logic completely, but 11-12 (24-26%) outs still falls short of the pot odds (33% needed) to put in 2 more bets for the 6 +1 more coming AND the potential of the OB re-raising. Why is it still enough to call?

[sean c]

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12 outs was about right, guys. 9 cards make a flush and the 3 remaining Qs make a straight. The 3 kings are worthless to you, the turn raiser can beat a pair of kings and you're going to check fold a K anyway.

You might discount the 12 outs to 11or 11.5 because if the flush comes but it pairs the board, it might make somebody a house. 11 is still enough to call, though.

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I follow your logic completely, but 11-12 (24-26%) outs still falls short of the pot odds (33% needed) to put in 2 more bets for the 6 +1 more coming AND the potential of the OB re-raising. Why is it still enough to call?

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Hi Beachman we win 25% right 1 out of every four so we loose 3 times and win 1 time 3:1.

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12 outs was about right, guys. 9 cards make a flush and the 3 remaining Qs make a straight. The 3 kings are worthless to you, the turn raiser can beat a pair of kings and you're going to check fold a K anyway.

You might discount the 12 outs to 11or 11.5 because if the flush comes but it pairs the board, it might make somebody a house. 11 is still enough to call, though.

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I follow your logic completely, but 11-12 (24-26%) outs still falls short of the pot odds (33% needed) to put in 2 more bets for the 6 +1 more coming AND the potential of the OB re-raising. Why is it still enough to call?

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Hi Beachman we win 25% right 1 out of every four so we loose 3 times and win 1 time 3:1.

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As I said earlier, I'm such a donk. I get it now & it MUST be Happy Hour . . .

[sean c]

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12 outs was about right, guys. 9 cards make a flush and the 3 remaining Qs make a straight. The 3 kings are worthless to you, the turn raiser can beat a pair of kings and you're going to check fold a K anyway.

You might discount the 12 outs to 11or 11.5 because if the flush comes but it pairs the board, it might make somebody a house. 11 is still enough to call, though.

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I follow your logic completely, but 11-12 (24-26%) outs still falls short of the pot odds (33% needed) to put in 2 more bets for the 6 +1 more coming AND the potential of the OB re-raising. Why is it still enough to call?

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Hi Beachman we win 25% right 1 out of every four so we loose 3 times and win 1 time 3:1.

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As I said earlier, I'm such a donk. I get it now & it MUST be Happy Hour . . .

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30 more minutes!

[blackaces13]

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Yeah I guess the implied odds make it a pretty safe call.

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Hi brockton with 12 outs the immediate odds make it a pretty safe call.

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I'd count it more like 11 outs since a set (if its out) kills 2 of my outs and there is remote chance that one of these guys has Axs. I'm check folding a K on the river anyway so that makes my immediate odds 3:1 on a 3.3: 1 shot.

ok my analysis...

first off outs:
Flush outs are discounted when you have a bettor and a raiser both of whom a players identified as LP. your Ts and your 3s certainly arent clear so maybe your getting 8 outs here?
You have no reason to taint your queens, so thats possibly another 3.

11 outs, none of which are to the nuts, so maybe 10.75 all together.

10.75/46 = 23%
roughly 3.3:1

Now odds:
With the potential of BB 3betting here, and when he does the chance of MP capping, i think your on average paying ~2.5 for this river.
that makes your street odds:
8.5:2.5
or 3.4:1

with the margin for error involved those results make the immediate call almost break even.

however your implied odds when you do hit are good, so that pushes you over the edge in to a must call.


(i would appreciate anyone checking the maths here)

[ZenMusician]

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...so we loose 3 times and win 1 time

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you WHAT 3 times?

I will from now on use the word nguyener when I Wynn.

-ZEN