($27) Blind Battle

[durron597]

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Not to mention, even assuming I take a stab at this flop, I'm giving in to any further resistance afterwards. I am legitimately interested in your thoughts from the turn on, and the results.

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Preflop: Duh.
Flop: Ok, he didn't bet out with a pair last time, but he his now. Maybe he's taking a stab HU? Let's raise and make him pay to see a 6 outer, and make the rest of the hand easier to play (him calling my raise is much more useful information than him leading).
Turn: 100 again? That's odd. Ok, let's re-evaluate. We saw him push two pair hard, he's betting small. He's clearly not expecting a fold from me after I raised the flop, which means this is either a value or blocking bet - maybe he has a three? I think his hand is no stronger than a weak Jack, maybe a draw, a hand like 24, maybe a three? My hand is ahead of some of his range and behind others and I'm getting 8:1 with a likely 5 outs when behind (technically I'd need 9 or 10:1 but I'm ahead sometimes) so I call.
River: Ok, 100 again. I am now positive he is not strong, I showed strength on the flop and am unlikely to fold, so if he had a hand he'd probably bet more - he has no reason to believe I am aggressive yet. However some hands he may consider to be weak yet beat mine - A4/K4/66-77, weak jacks. I really felt the type of player who would bet like this with a marginal hand probably isn't calling this push - sure, my hand has SD value but I think I make more folding some better hands than I do hoping he has like, a 3, a worse 4, or pocket deuces. Honestly the hand I put him on at this point was J2 and from the way he played it so far I thought he would fold to my push.

Results later.

Does that all really go through your head in game? I'm rarely thinking this deeply when multi-tabling these, in large part because I don't normally expect my opponents to be rational enough to decide whether, for instance in this case, your calculations are correct, or if villain is on 33 or A2 and misplaying it at various points. Or whether he's just got JT and will call you down no matter what.

I'd feel more comfortable with some of your deductions if you had more history on him than the one previous hand.

[bones]

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I'd feel more comfortable with some of your deductions if you had more history on him than the one previous hand.

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Yeah, he'd be much better off assuming the guy had 53 because some donks on an internet message board think it's a cute hand.

[Taraz]

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Honestly the hand I put him on at this point was J2 and from the way he played it so far I thought he would fold to my push.


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I think this part is the key. Is he capable of folding a Jack here? I've only played on Stars a couple of times, but I've seen people call raises like this with JT on Party. What did he have?

[durron597]

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Does that all really go through your head in game?

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Sometimes. I was constantly re-evaluating the hand out as I played it, so I had the entire duration of the hand to think about that. And I only three table - I'm still not good at playing all three of them shorthanded the times it happens.

[bigt439]

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I'd feel more comfortable with some of your deductions if you had more history on him than the one previous hand.

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Yeah, he'd be much better off assuming the guy had 53 because some donks on an internet message board think it's a cute hand.

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In his face.

Regarding the hand, I don't like the river push. The reason being that I don't see him laying down too many jacks here. I'm not going to get into why, that just been my experience that has forged my opinion. I see him calling with almost any J and up. While his bet does look really weak and I understand why you'd want to attack it, I think the portion of his range that falls between a J and a 4 is small enough that seeing a showdown is better (i.e. to beat a worse 4, a 3, A high). If we're not folding jacks (and if you want to assume you are, you're only folding the weakest ones because of how you played the turn), then we're only folding better 4's and pp's and that's too small of a range for me to not take a showdown when I believe I beat a much larger portion of his range (even though the biggest part of his range is probably a hand that beats us).

I make alot of assumptions in this analysis, but I think they are all reasonable ones. I just think taking a showdown has more value than a bluff giving the guy decent odds, when you played the turn unlike any made hand would.

[durron597]

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I make alot of assumptions in this analysis, but I think they are all reasonable ones. I just think taking a showdown has more value than a bluff giving the guy decent odds, when you played the turn unlike any made hand would.

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I played this hand like I had a straight draw on the flop and picked up runner runner trips. I would have played 56 the exact same way.

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I make alot of assumptions in this analysis, but I think they are all reasonable ones. I just think taking a showdown has more value than a bluff giving the guy decent odds, when you played the turn unlike any made hand would.

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I played this hand like I had a straight draw on the flop and picked up runner runner trips. I would have played 56 the exact same way.

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Sure, but is the average guy at the $27s going to realize that? Moreover, if he does, is he going to buy that you'd push trips rather than make a raise he'd have to call?

I think an idiot calls with a J here a lot, and a thinking player gets real tempted to call with one as well.

[Jbrochu]

I would just call the river because I can't see anybody calling your bet unless you're beat, and I can't see many people laying down a hand that beats you, including just a pair of jacks.

[durron597]

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I would just call the river because I can't see anybody calling your bet unless you're beat, and I can't see many people laying down a hand that beats you, including just a pair of jacks.

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He tanked for a long time, and folded. So I don't know what he had, maybe I got him to fold a worse hand.