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#11
11-17-2005, 06:03 AM
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Re: River raise ?
[ QUOTE ]
Flop the initial plan was to check raise but given the action in front of me i felt i was behind to probable overpair from CO. [/ QUOTE ] You cannot just name some hands you are scared of, you have to think of what possible hands he could be holding. That means all of them; the ones you are ahead of, the ones you are behind. Yes, he could have an overpair (AA, KK), but there are not that many combos of overpairs (12). You are also behind to his possible AQ (8), and KQ (8), which hands that are far worse for you than if he had an overpair. Alternatively, he could have A9 (12), QT (8), AK (16), AcJc(1), JJ (3), TT(6). So, there are 24 hands or so that you are behind, but 46 hands you are ahead of! If you disagree with my range, that is fine, but at least come up with your own reasonable range, rather than saying something such as "I was behind to probably overpair from CO". 
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#12
11-17-2005, 10:20 AM
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Re: River raise ?
PF-raise.
flop-raise. turn-raise. river-ezezraise. no, im not kidding.
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#13
11-17-2005, 10:59 AM
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Re: River raise ?
[ QUOTE ]
turn-raise. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree. Please explain yourself.
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#14
11-17-2005, 11:18 AM
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Re: River raise ?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] turn-raise. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree. Please explain yourself. [/ QUOTE ] there are lots of draws, BB can easily have the worst Q (not too mention the obvious 9, PP, BS), noone will threebet unless u are drawing dead. value baby. u must seize it!
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#15
11-17-2005, 11:40 AM
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Re: River raise ?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] turn-raise. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree. Please explain yourself. [/ QUOTE ] there are lots of draws, BB can easily have the worst Q (not too mention the obvious 9, PP, BS), noone will threebet unless u are drawing dead. value baby. u must seize it! [/ QUOTE ] Although I think BB COULD have a worse Q, I don't think it is all that likely. He 3-bet the flop, and led into the preflop raiser/flop capper on the turn, even with you still in the pot. A 9 is less likely, a PP is even less likely, and there is almost no way he has nothing. Far more often he has us beat, and if you are suggesting that noone will 3-bet unless we are drawing dead, you are wrong. Q9, which seems like a reasonable holding might 3-bet, and the pot is getting huge, so folding to that extra bet would be wrong. I think if you draw out a likely range for their holdings, rather than just some random cards we could be beating, I think you will see that we don't have enough equity to value-raise this turn.
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#16
11-17-2005, 12:45 PM
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Re: River raise ?
Ok, i dug out the stats,
CO is 41\22\1.25 attsb 77% this is only over 48 hands so doesnt mean a whole lot, although he is obviously somewhat aggro BB is 49\4\.51 over 95 hands Co's range must be fairly wide j10+ q10+ k8+ all aces and all pp PF BBs range is also fairly wide and would be similar to CO Once we get to the flop and turn action i think BB's range shrinks considerably, he is very passive and seems to like his hand a lot, so qj+, 99, 22 or kk,aa CO could still have a wide range at this stage Taking BBs action and stats (sorry should have posted these at the beginning) into consideration i dont think we can raise turn
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#17
11-17-2005, 12:48 PM
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Re: River raise ?
[ QUOTE ]
Taking BBs action and stats (sorry should have posted these at the beginning) into consideration i dont think we can raise turn [/ QUOTE ] Reads are always great, and help a lot, but I don't even think we can raise this turn against unknowns. In fact, I think there are very few reads that would allow us to check raise this turn. I respect flawless_victory's posts, but I really don't understand how he advocates a turn raise here.
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#19
11-17-2005, 06:10 PM
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Re: River raise ?
(grunch) I 3-bet in SB to defend a steal. QJo plays OK multiway, so having the BB in isn't too bad, tho. I probably would have check-raised the flop, then called down a 3-bet, or bet out if he just calls. Raise the river. Two pair against a possible steal is huge.
Edit: note it plays differently if you 3-bet PF, but as played, I probably would've check-raised the flop anyway, then folded once it was two bets back to me. I don't like being in the middle of a raising war when I'm almost certaintly outkicked, drawing to probably 3 outs.
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