Low end of a OESD on the flop - is it correct to bet here?

I'd imagine that you'd rarely get four callers, and three would be fortunate as well. Two callers - probably the average, though I don't know this game - makes for a very thin edge.

That's why I like checking, because it takes the guesswork out of it. If someone behind me bets, then I can see who has called before making a decision. And if it's checked behind, well then, I get a free card, and that's not too shabby either.

Yeah, I'm still thinking about this. You have two players who checked preflop (there was one poster). You can only put them on random hands. With this coordinated high-card flop, it's very likely they'll fold to a bet. So if you assume an average of two callers, it's just about breakeven whether to check or bet.

As a free-card play, it probably isn't going to work because a player with TP is going to bet anyway if the turn comes a blank (does this make sense?)

Bottom line, there's probably not a big difference in EV whether you check or bet in this case!? Is this reasoning correct?

[MrWookie47]

[ QUOTE ]
I like your bet here.
You may be ahead (SB only put in 1/2 bet; others just checked preflop). If you are behind (most likely to pair of Q or K) you still have 9.5 outs (8 OESD; 1.5 BDFD) to a winner. Given 9.5 outs you are 3.8:1 to catch a winner. With 5 SB in the pot this bet is for value.

I do have a question for the vetrans here. Is this a true semi-bluff? I thought that meant you had to have some sort of a hand say A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] here where you have bottom pair plus a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know where you got the ideas that I bolded, but they're quite wrong. First of all, a 9.5 out draw is about 1.7:1 to hit by the river, not 3.8. Hero won't be folding this on the turn, so we can use his flop to river equity. Secondly, in determining whether or not to CALL with a draw, you need to consider pot size. When considering whether or not to BET or even raise with a draw for value, pot size is (mostly) irrelevant. It's the number of opponents that matters. Hero's draw will come in between 35 and 40% of the time, so as long as he's putting in less than that share of the money as bets go into the pot, he's profiting. Thus, hero needs to have 2 or more callers, regardless of the pot size. In a field this large, you typically can bet and expect to get that.

Second of all, a semibluff is a bet or raise with any hand that you don't think is currently best, but that may still win by either improving to the best hand, or by folding your opponent. Since the folding equity of a semibluff in a field of 4 opponents is near zero, this isn't a semibluff because the second condition isn't met. A bet from a hand like Ad5d with bottom pair may or may not be a semibluff. It depends on how likely you think it is that you have the best hand. It may just be a value bet.

[SlantNGo]

This is actually a no-brainer bet for me. You have the ONLY OESD out there, in addition to a backdoor flush draw.

It would be much closer if you had 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on a J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] board, for example. On that board, there is a flush draw, and a Queen completes a gutshot.

[HouseCalls]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like your bet here.
You may be ahead (SB only put in 1/2 bet; others just checked preflop). If you are behind (most likely to pair of Q or K) you still have 9.5 outs (8 OESD; 1.5 BDFD) to a winner. Given 9.5 outs you are 3.8:1 to catch a winner. With 5 SB in the pot this bet is for value.

I do have a question for the vetrans here. Is this a true semi-bluff? I thought that meant you had to have some sort of a hand say A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] here where you have bottom pair plus a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know where you got the ideas that I bolded, but they're quite wrong. First of all, a 9.5 out draw is about 1.7:1 to hit by the river, not 3.8. Hero won't be folding this on the turn, so we can use his flop to river equity. Secondly, in determining whether or not to CALL with a draw, you need to consider pot size. When considering whether or not to BET or even raise with a draw for value, pot size is (mostly) irrelevant. It's the number of opponents that matters. Hero's draw will come in between 35 and 40% of the time, so as long as he's putting in less than that share of the money as bets go into the pot, he's profiting. Thus, hero needs to have 2 or more callers, regardless of the pot size. In a field this large, you typically can bet and expect to get that.

Second of all, a semibluff is a bet or raise with any hand that you don't think is currently best, but that may still win by either improving to the best hand, or by folding your opponent. Since the folding equity of a semibluff in a field of 4 opponents is near zero, this isn't a semibluff because the second condition isn't met. A bet from a hand like Ad5d with bottom pair may or may not be a semibluff. It depends on how likely you think it is that you have the best hand. It may just be a value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok Wookie - now I'm confused (which I guess is the whole point of this so see if you can straighten me out).

9.5 outs are 3.8 to win: I thought this came from SSH (table page 30) which gives break even odds for the number of outs. Aren't these odds your chance to hit your hand based on the number of outs you have (ie for 4 outs the break even odds are 10.5:1; doesn't that mean you will complete your hand 1 out of 10.5 times)? Now I know these are for one card to come not two but I simplified it to make the math easier.
It seems that you are calculating the bet based on pot equity - ie if your pot equity is greater than 1/number of callers then you bet. Is that true?
And last thanks for the clarification on the semi-bluff.

If nothing else I think this means I'm progressing from "not knowing I suck" to "misapplying what I learned"

Thanks for the help [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[Reqtech]

This hand is pretty much automatic.

Betting the flop is correct thanks to pot equity. No one raised preflop, so check raising isn't a guarantee.

Taking the free card is also correct. There's a good chance BB has a K or Q, and you're most likely not going to fold him out with a semibluff.

[MrWookie47]

There are three different kinds of pot odd with which you should familiarize yourself, the pot odds from flop to turn, those from turn to river, and those from flop to river. The 3.8:1 you cite is the chance you hit on the turn. If you have a strong draw (usually 8 outs or better) that you might consider betting or raising for value if the field is large enough, you should take a look at the flop to river odds. Those are the odds that you hit your hand at any point. Actually, I have a different meands of estimating our equity. Since we'll assume that we're drawing to the nuts (a good approximation), our equity on the flop can be estimated by multiplying the number of outs we have by 4. 9.5 outs = 38%. That's a hair high, but it's good enough, and easy to work out at game time. When you get to the turn and you miss, your equity gets cut roughly in half - you multply your outs by 2, for 19%. That's actually a hair low, IIRC, but it's again good enough, typically.

Now, you don't want to go overboard with this. You'll primarily want to be looking at your flop to turn or turn to river odds (I regard them as pretty much equal rather than memorizing two lists, and then remembering which list has longer odds for borderline decisions) when you're dealing with weaker draws. In those cases, you may be offered improper odds on the turn in small pots, so you'll only want to peel on the flop if you're getting proper odds for a single street.

Actually, you are even a little wrong in your concept of odds. 10.5:1 doesn't mean you complete your hand one time in 10.5. It means that 10.5 times you don't complete your hand for every time you do, meaning you hit your hand one time in 11.5.

[Bill Lumberg]

I don’t think this is a good place to semibluff given the limit you are playing, the number of players on the flop, and getting raised would suck because you would be paying way to much for your draw compared to the pot size. The value of a semi-bluff is the combination of the chance that you will draw to the best hand and the possibility everyone will fold. With a K and Q on board, I don’t like those chances of everyone folding.

Having the flopped checked through is not the end of the world I agree, as we are not trying to protect our hand. Also assuimg 2 callers makes the edge small (0.15SB if my calcs are correct).

But then, why give up on your opponents money?

If there had been a pre-flop raise (say from MP1) my line would have been identical to yours

L

[Hellmouth]

Grunching

I bet this because you only have two people left to rely on to call for the check raise. For one bet many people will come along to try and spike their ace. When they do you get paid because you represented a K and they think they have you beaten.

Bet that flop. Everyone folding is a fine result becasue you saw the flop fiveways and all you had was undercards and some strong draws.

greg