2 Monstonian Draws; compare differences

Hand 1:
The pot is significantly smaller on the turn than in Hand 2. I also have fewer outs, and some of those outs may not even be live. I also have a piece of the board, though I'm 95% certain that this has no showdown value. I think that it is correct to check behind here, as a checkraise is somewhat likely here given the sequence of events. My flop raise was in no way intimidating to him.

Hand 2:
The pot is already large enough to get all my chips in the middle. Between fold equity and 15 live outs, I think I should be making the push here. Villian may hold a hand like A5s, or A7s, 99-22, and be willing to fold to a bet. Villian will call with any flush draw that's ahead of mine (read-based), and with many straight draws (all of which I'm behind). If I bet this turn, I think it has to be all-in. He is priced in to call any bet on the river with any hand, except a busted draw.

[2PAUL2]

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The flop action suggests a hand like flush draw, middle pair good kicker, or middle pocket pair. I'm not sure if he actually puts me on a K here. His flop call could be a "call to find out" sort of call.


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push then.

paul

Hand 1:

UTG checks, Hero bets $25, UTG raises to $75, Hero folds.

UTG flipped a 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and mucked.

Hand 2:

MP1 checks, Hero checks

MP1 says, "Thought so."

River: ($110) K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
MP1 bets $40, Hero folds