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#11
11-13-2005, 01:25 PM
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Re: Raise this turn? Don\'t raise the river?
[ QUOTE ]
2)Raising on turn may get you in a free card situation on the river. [/ QUOTE ] You have a significant misunderstanding of the term 'free card'. What you mean is 'free showdown', and this hand is not the place to try for one. 
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#12
11-13-2005, 01:41 PM
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Re: Raise this turn? Don\'t raise the river?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] "why didn't you raise the turn?? you have to protect your hand out there with that board." Uhh, cause you're most likely behind? "Based on your turn play river play is fine." IMO, it's spewing. [/ QUOTE ] Even though you may be behind to one person I think the raise has some value on the turn. 1)Raising on Turn may fold out the other two hands that could be drawing to trips or random straight draw (unlikely straight draw folds) 2)Raising on turn may get you in a free card situation on the river. 3)You may be ahead By calling the turn you don't improve your chances of winning. At least raising may force others out of the hand giving you improved odds to win. [/ QUOTE ]Your play would be right with a different board and opponent. You have a fairly passive opponent who donk bets the turn after you 3-bet PF and raised the flop. His turn bet says that he can beat your overpair. You may be drawing dead, after discounting our outs, we'll approximate 3 outs ( 2 for the aces, 1 for catching a better two pair). So, you want to put in two BB here, risking being 3-bet? Seems pretty expensive when you don't have a great chance to improve. Seems like a hand where you want to get to showdown as cheaply as possible in the case that you may be good (which is unlikely).
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#13
11-13-2005, 01:46 PM
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Re: Raise this turn? Don\'t raise the river?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Call down expecting to be beat by a straight or 2 pair. If the pot is raised at any time, fold. [/ QUOTE ] What 2pair do you think is raising preflop? 9Ts,89s,T8s (not sure I'd raise preflop unless table was extremely loose) KTs may be a PFraise. Two pair just seems unlikely to me but I agree straight is very possible. I think we are going to see 3 of a kind [/ QUOTE ] I was just saying you should expect to be beaten. With villain stats, yeah any of those are possible.
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#14
11-13-2005, 01:51 PM
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Re: Raise this turn? Don\'t raise the river?
You're correct - "Free Showdown" vs "Free Card"
Really I was just expressing the positives of raising and this was an option. I don't think its the best reason but a reason nevertheless. ********* I really would just like to get this much closer to a HU showdown vs a 4way showdown
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#15
11-13-2005, 02:01 PM
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Re: Raise this turn? Don\'t raise the river?
[ QUOTE ]
Your play would be right with a different board and opponent. You have a fairly passive opponent who donk bets the turn after you 3-bet PF and raised the flop. His turn bet says that he can beat your overpair. You may be drawing dead, after discounting our outs, we'll approximate 3 outs ( 2 for the aces, 1 for catching a better two pair). So, you want to put in two BB here, risking being 3-bet? Seems pretty expensive when you don't have a great chance to improve. Seems like a hand where you want to get to showdown as cheaply as possible in the case that you may be good (which is unlikely). [/ QUOTE ] Definitely see your point..... If I'm three bet on the Turn I could strongly consider folding so it doesn't really get more expensive for me. It would be a tough fold. Maybe this is where I'm going down the wrong path. Sounds like from the discussion folding is out of the question. For me I just rather take my stand here if it folds others and at least lets me see the river.
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#16
11-13-2005, 02:14 PM
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Re: Raise this turn? Don\'t raise the river?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Your play would be right with a different board and opponent. You have a fairly passive opponent who donk bets the turn after you 3-bet PF and raised the flop. His turn bet says that he can beat your overpair. You may be drawing dead, after discounting our outs, we'll approximate 3 outs ( 2 for the aces, 1 for catching a better two pair). So, you want to put in two BB here, risking being 3-bet? Seems pretty expensive when you don't have a great chance to improve. Seems like a hand where you want to get to showdown as cheaply as possible in the case that you may be good (which is unlikely). [/ QUOTE ] Definitely see your point..... If I'm three bet on the Turn I could strongly consider folding so it doesn't really get more expensive for me. It would be a tough fold. Maybe this is where I'm going down the wrong path. Sounds like from the discussion folding is out of the question. For me I just rather take my stand here if it folds others and at least lets me see the river. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think I could fold to a 3-bet.
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#17
11-13-2005, 02:19 PM
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Re: Raise this turn? Don\'t raise the river?
Your title says it all. Raise this turn for value and for hand protection. There are no reasons to sense major strength in mp2's donk bet. If he flopped a set or 2 pairs, this is a weird way of playing it. He could very well be betting his AJ that now improved to a double ended straight draw. Raise and it's not even close.
On the river, going for overcalls is the safe play, since you are likely to fold weaker hands by raising. You only have an overpair so let 2nd pairs and 3rd pairs call you for one bet.
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#18
11-13-2005, 02:45 PM
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Re: Raise this turn? Don\'t raise the river?
[ QUOTE ]
There are no reasons to sense major strength in mp2's donk bet. [/ QUOTE ] How about the fact that he knows you have an overpair?
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#19
11-13-2005, 03:09 PM
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Re: Raise this turn? Don\'t raise the river?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] There are no reasons to sense major strength in mp2's donk bet. [/ QUOTE ] How about the fact that he knows you have an overpair? [/ QUOTE ] How excatly does he know that? What hands do you think MP is raising preflop and just calling a 3-bet with that hit this turn so well? I think the turn raise is better than the river spew.
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#20
11-13-2005, 03:12 PM
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Re: Raise this turn? Don\'t raise the river?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] There are no reasons to sense major strength in mp2's donk bet. [/ QUOTE ] How about the fact that he knows you have an overpair? [/ QUOTE ] He does not know that. If he would then his donk bet still shows some weakness since many players freeze on the turn when somebody makes that kind of bet. So it is unlikely that he is betting hoping to get raised. If mp2 thoutht hero was strong, he would likely check raise trapping the field for 2 big bets.
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